Axel @AxelAdller
FREE daily on-chain & macro #Bitcoin research from a Verified Author @CryptoQuant • . Get your weekly market report & original deep-dives • Subscribe now adlerscryptoinsights.substack.com Joined July 2012-
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The bulls had good chances yesterday, but the bureaucrats from the S&P 500 decided that Michael Saylor's business model is too innovative for the classic S&P. As a result, we're back in bear territory again.
Strategy did not make it into the S&P 500 not because it failed to meet the formal criteria, but because the S&P Dow Jones committee decided that its business model and the high volatility of its stock make it an unsuitable candidate.
Miner Demand–Supply Balance (%). Balance of network demand (fees) against new supply (issuance х price). Higher - on-chain demand covers new supply, selling pressure decreases. Lower - demand weaker than issuance, market more vulnerable to decline. Current value 60%:…
Miner Financial Health Index (%) Aggregate miner economics: hashprice, revenue per block, fee share of revenue, and total daily revenue. Higher - miners are more profitable/sustainable, lower risk of forced selling. Lower - margins compressed, increased probability of…
Today, data on the number of unemployment benefit claims for another week will be published, which will provide additional insight into the state of the labor market. The next important indicator will be the employment report to be published this coming Friday. For the Fed, a…
On the monthly TF, BTC is at $110.7K and holding just above STH Realized Price $107.6K (key monthly bull support level). Overall Realized Price is $52.8K and LTH RP $35.6K price is significantly above both, confirming the structural uptrend. NUPL 0.53 broad profit regime, but…
GM, Folks. Currently in the market: neutral-bearish base: Price and derivative flows are below 50. While taker flows remain negative/weak, any recovery is more likely a mean-reversion to $113K toward the Fair Value/mid-30-day range area, rather than the beginning of a trend.…
European markets are preparing for recovery after yesterday's decline amid fiscal concerns and rising bond yields. Sentiment in Asia remains cautious: the Shanghai Composite dropped 0.6%, with pressure intensified by geopolitical risks following tough statements from Xi Jinping…
Funding Z-Score (7D vs 1Y) = +1.24 at $110.7K price with active Bull Dominance - this is a sustained long bias above average. Longs are paying to hold positions more noticeably than normal - the market is supported by carry, however its sensitivity to corrective movement…
After the $124K ATH, BTC+ETH inflows to exchanges surged while stablecoin inflows lagged. The Inflow Ratio (BTC+ETH ÷ Stablecoins) spiked to 4.0×, coinciding with selling pressure and a price pullback classic excess-supply-over-fresh-liquidity dynamics. Since then, the ratio…
The current BTC drawdown is −12.8% from the ATH. In this bull cycle, pullbacks after local peaks have mostly clustered in the −10% to −18% range, while deeper corrections have typically extended to −20% to −30%. At −12.8%, we’re closer to the moderate zone, consistent…
Derivative pressure remains elevated - baseline: pullback via long de-leveraging. Pressure Score at 30% sits in the upper band, keeping the market vulnerable to downside jolts. The orange cluster markers on price favor continued chop lower/sideways as longs are de-leveraged on…
Bitcoin Realized Price (Cost Basis): - STH Cost Basis (Realized Price) = $107.4K - US ETF Cost Basis (WAC by NAV) = $78.9K - Strategy (MSTR) Cost Basis = $73 527 - LTH Cost Basis (Realized Price) = $35.6K
Gold prices rose to $3,482 per ounce, approaching ATH. Investors are weighing the Fed's future and uncertainty regarding Trump's tariffs. The hearing regarding Trump's actions to dismiss Fed Chair Lisa Cook concluded on Friday without a decision, postponed until Tuesday. On…
Adjusted Bitcoin Cycle Extremes Index based on volatility within halving cycles. The index includes on-chain metrics aSOPR, MVRV, NUPL, and NVT. Current value: 8.8% - this is a bottom zone close to Compression. This means the network and its activity is in a compression phase,…
Volatility exiting compression, early expansion during price pullback via @cryptoquant_com cryptoquant.com/insights/quick…
This guy is doing a really great job.
This guy is doing a really great job.
These conclusions are correct, GROK is smart.
Most models from this set are morally outdated
Most models from this set are morally outdated
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