Forecast @ForecastMacro
Joined May 2022-
Tweets13K
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Following329
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Forecast retweeted
For every 100 basis points that the Fed funds rate exceeds the neutral level, SME job growth can fall by 0.5–1.5 percentage points, according to the Minneapolis Fed. The Fed did not even read its own beige book and kept rates based on a misguided narrative, creating a massive…
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Forecast retweeted
gold went up bonds went down hope that helps
gold went up bonds went down hope that helps
Forecast retweeted
A step in the right direction on all fronts in this ISM report. Still lukewarm, but orders look promising and prices have likely PEAKED — the most important part. Progress that supports rate cuts. Not too bad.
Forecast retweeted
Expect most of US macro to surprise to the upside this week!
Forecast retweeted
Q3 GDP now expected to be up 3.5%. Don't forget who four months ago promised you a recession right now.
Forecast retweeted
I think about this chart a lot... In terms of "what is next" and what is NOT next.
Forecast retweeted
This is what Bessent is after! Unleash the hounds, and the net RE wealth! Full analysis over at @RealVision
Forecast retweeted
Labour markets will be deeply misunderstood now that immigration has shifted into re-immigration Take this example from Jolts today
Forecast retweeted
New orders through the roof in the ISM Services PMI I repeat, the economy is re-accelerating
Forecast retweeted
Everyone is misreading the labour market so badly here AI + migrant OUTFLOW = much fewer jobs needed for a solid economy
Forecast retweeted
ut oh...
Forecast retweeted
Since January, the labor force has not grown at all. This is VERY rare but has happened outside recessions. NFP has grown by a meagre 487k. I wrongly expected demand to be stronger in this report , but the supply story remains a much bigger one and will continue to confuse.
Forecast retweeted
63% of homebuilders we survey say layoffs are happening, echoed by today’s August jobs report.
Forecast retweeted
My estimate of the breakeven employment level is as low as 28k. The foreign born share of labor force growth was as high as 70% under Biden. The 3m average is 28%. August was 0%. This is legitimately the wildest economic experiment of all time.
Forecast retweeted
How long until the administration declares a National Emergency on Electricity prices? @jvisserlabs
How long until the administration declares a National Emergency on Electricity prices? @jvisserlabs
Forecast retweeted
It gets worse: all jobs gains were part time Full-time jobs: -357K Part-time jobs: +597K
Forecast retweeted
Whether you like it or not, the U.S. economy is mostly surprising to the upside of expectations. We continue to see the 'tariffs will cause a recession' narrative shift as the goalposts keep moving
Forecast retweeted
Miran says he would consider taking a leave of absence from the CEA so that he could return to the White House after his Fed term ends next year. This has never been done, and Sen. Jack Reed (D., R.I.) calls it “ridiculous” in the context of Miran’s pledges to be independent.
Miran says he would consider taking a leave of absence from the CEA so that he could return to the White House after his Fed term ends next year. This has never been done, and Sen. Jack Reed (D., R.I.) calls it “ridiculous” in the context of Miran’s pledges to be independent.
Forecast retweeted
Miran: If confirmed, “I will act independently as the Federal Reserve always does.” In his opening statement, Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott doesn’t address Trump’s attempt to remove Lisa Cook from the Fed’s board.
Miran: If confirmed, “I will act independently as the Federal Reserve always does.” In his opening statement, Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott doesn’t address Trump’s attempt to remove Lisa Cook from the Fed’s board.
Forecast retweeted
Stephen Miran, who previously called for barring Fed governors from going to the executive branch for four years after working at the central bank, said he might not vacate his White House position if he takes a monthslong term at the Fed so he can more easily return to the White…
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