Marko Papics @Geo_pappic

BCA Research. Geomacro strategist. Author of Geopolitical Alpha. Views on Twitter are my own. Santa Monica, California Joined June 2012

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Marko Papic @Geo_papic

11 months ago

Israel's strategic thinking since October 7 terrorist attack is a good example of Putnam's "two level game." Generally speaking, I think that 🇮🇱 is over-focusing on the domestic over the geopolitical. Makes sense, given lack of imminent constraints on geopol level (for now).

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Marko Papic @Geo_papic

11 months ago

Can we all agree that the word "huge" has become overused in the American lexicon?

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Marko Papic @Geo_papic

11 months ago

The latest GeoMacro Alpha report is out...

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Marko Papic @Geo_papic

11 months ago

Worrying sign for VP Harris. She goes into the final stretch with nowhere near the "cushion" that Biden or Clinton had in the relevant swing states. This is a problem given that President Trump tends to be a "ninth inning rally" kind of guy. Trump remains the front-runner.

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Marko Papic @Geo_papic

11 months ago

Why is the 10-year above 4%? This summer, the economy was a party that was winding down. Then, Jay Powell showed up with some booze and China brought the snacks. Party is picking up! The risk? Trump is pulling up in an Uber outside, wearing a Hawaiian shirt... and bringing…

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Marko Papic @Geo_papic

11 months ago

I think that too many investors want China to nail its fiscal package right away. The reality is that a slew of assets -- from BRL to oil to Chinese stocks -- are actually PRICED FOR IMPERFECTION. US stocks are priced for perfection. Global assets are priced for imperfection.…

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Marko Papic @Geo_papic

11 months ago

We know what happened then. Democrats won and the Biden administration tripled down on precisely the same policies on trade as with Trump. However, due to a quirk of American politics, Biden and his team could not deal with China. There was no attempt to resolve trade…

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Marko Papic @Geo_papic

11 months ago

The speech essentially adopted MAGAism, but toned down the rhetoric so that the CFR crowd does not choke on their pre-event canapés! However, with this April 2023 treatise, the Biden Administration essentially tied the Democratic Party philosophically to the most virulent form of…

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Marko Papic @Geo_papic

11 months ago

Which means that the Democratic Party suddenly finds itself OFFSIDE of the median voter on trade. It comes off as extremely opposed to globalization at a time when most American voters just don't really care about it.

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Marko Papic @Geo_papic

11 months ago

This predicament is not unusual. Remember my reference to a "quirk of American politics" above? I am referring to the tendency of the Dem Party to become quite aggressive on foreign policy. Not due to any fault of its own. It's just that the American public always has a higher…

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Marko Papic @Geo_papic

11 months ago

Now... back to Trump's "superpower." President Trump has "sniffed out" that the median voter is miffed about trade with China, but not incensed. It gives the GOP an opening to position itself as "sensible" on trade. Outmaneuvering the Dems who are suddenly seen as downright…

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Marko Papic @Geo_papic

11 months ago

Of course, to be fair here, this is not just the Democrats. Plenty of members of Congress from the Republican Party are fully aligned with the "zero tolerance" policy on China. But, they will inevitably fall in line if Trump starts negotiating with Beijing.

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Marko Papic @Geo_papic

11 months ago

The bottom line is that anyone looking to forecast US-China trade relations should be careful not to linearly extrapolate the past four years. The US public is not anti-globalization. It wants China to trade with the US fairly.

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Marko Papic @Geo_papic

11 months ago

This is largely unfair. Democrats are constrained by the domestic political context - which paints them as doves - forcing them to try to out-hawk Trump on China. In the end, only Trump can really land the mercantilist plane he himself took off in.