The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter
Official X account for The Kobeissi Letter, an industry leading commentary on the global capital markets. Email us: [email protected] thekobeissiletter.com/subscribe United States Joined June 2015-
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The US is officially the largest oil producer in the world, and it's not even close. Currently, the US is producing 12.9 million barrels per day of crude oil. This is nearly 30% more than the 10.1 million barrels per day that Russia produces and 33% more than Saudi Arabia. In…
Another big call by Apollo: "Inflation will likely be above the Fed's 2% inflation target for the rest of 2024." If inflation rises at its current pace for the rest of the year, then core CPI inflation will increase to 4.5% To get inflation back to the Fed’s 2% inflation…
Corporations are set for a rude awakening: Currently, corporate interest costs as percentage of net income are just 9.1%, the lowest since 1956. By comparison, this percentage was as high as 60% in the 2008 Financial Crisis. Why is it so low right now? Most corporations have…
Consumers are traveling like the economy is great: A record high ~22% of Americans are planning to go on a vacation to a foreign country within the next 6 months. Because of the significant rise in the stock market and significant cash flows from fixed income, US households…
Traders once this gets approved: "My 0DTE calls on my Bitcoin ETF expire on Sunday at 4:00 AM, we need a 2:00 AM market rally."
Traders once this gets approved: "My 0DTE calls on my Bitcoin ETF expire on Sunday at 4:00 AM, we need a 2:00 AM market rally." https://t.co/C0kE5Got1B
Central banks are STOCKING UP on gold: Since 2022, China has bought a record ~290 tonnes of gold. Last year alone, China acquired more than 225 tonnes of the metal. China's central bank increased its gold holdings for 17 straight months. In 2022 and 2023, world central banks…
The Kobeissi Letter for the week of April 22nd has been published and may be viewed through the link below: bit.ly/TheKobeissiLet… The Chart of the Week for the week of April 22nd has been published. View or sign up for FREE through the link below: bit.ly/TKLChartofWeek
Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets
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BREAKING: Credit card delinquency rates at Discover Financial, the 6th largest credit card issuer in America, just spiked to 2008 levels, according to Reventure. At Discover, credit card delinquency rates in Q1 2024 jumped from 4.7% to 5.7% in Q1 2024. To put this in…
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On Friday, our subscribers bought the dip in $SPX before the close. Today, longs are up over 50 points for another great trade! The return of volatility is opportunity. Consider subscribing to our premium service at the link below to access our trades: thekobeissiletter.com/subscribe
$NVDA's Fate: (1) so far, the rebound from $756 is not impulsive, which means, most likely, that low will be revisited AGAIN. (2) Also, you can't ignore the giant gap btw $662-742, that will be a magnet to drag NVDA lower; (3) a lot of sharks lurking in that "water" as well.
Here is the reason why I don't care those trolls or abusers. 👇👇👇When I first tweeted about SPX's 2nd attempt to test the trendline & then the likely "THRUST" after 5000, 4/22 SPY 500 calls were $0.30. Yeah, I bought some--not large enough in hindsight. Now, it is $2.05.
@MasterPandaWu I have noticed you since you started alerting everyone about dam being breached. Many mocked you, made fun of you and even abused you.. you remained unaffected and had full conviction. You are awesome!
Never forget Barrons said $TSLA was a safer investment over Treasuries. Since, $TSLA is down 45% & $TLT is up 3%.
Back to THE ZONE: (1) remember this zone from 5020-40, where I marked as the last sandbag to hold the water. (2) now, SPX popped its head to this zone again--somehow, I don't think it can get it through this time. (3) a potential lowered H&S is forming too.
Target Zone of 5040: (1) I marked the first target zone btw 5020-40 a week ago--moments ago, SPX touched the upper range at 5045 & bounced up. (2) to resolve this pattern, a decent bounce is needed--probably to 5100 area; (3) however, that is A REBOUND, meaning lower low to come
BREAKING: Credit card delinquency rates at Discover Financial, the 6th largest credit card issuer in America, just spiked to 2008 levels, according to Reventure. At Discover, credit card delinquency rates in Q1 2024 jumped from 4.7% to 5.7% in Q1 2024. To put this in…
10+ points higher after breaking 5000. Tighten stops for long positions.
1.5 Hours Ago--I tweeted that the market was preparing for its second attempt to overcome THE DOTTED PURPLE LINE (that is when SPX traded at 4970 👇). Indeed, that is what has happened, + a thrust after 5000. Bought some 0dtx SPY 498 calls & made a 2-3 baggers in an hour.
SPX has to overcome the purple dotted trendline (see the 5-min chart) to get anything going. The first attempt failed at the open, now the second try at a lower price level (roughly 4985).
Overcome the Dotted line--prepare for a thrust higher after 5000.
SPX has to overcome the purple dotted trendline (see the 5-min chart) to get anything going. The first attempt failed at the open, now the second try at a lower price level (roughly 4985).
@MasterPandaWu I have noticed you since you started alerting everyone about dam being breached. Many mocked you, made fun of you and even abused you.. you remained unaffected and had full conviction. You are awesome!
SPX has to overcome the purple dotted trendline (see the 5-min chart) to get anything going. The first attempt failed at the open, now the second try at a lower price level (roughly 4985).
JUST IN: The New York Stock Exchange is considering a proposal for 24/7 trading, according to FT. In other words, the stock market would never close much like crypto markets are now. Should 24/7 trading be approved?
Costco is selling up to $200m in gold bars per month (~80,000 oz). It’s a lot. For reference, China’s Central Bank bought $400m of gold in March (~160,000 oz). A funny side note: bunch of Costco members trying to rack up credit card rewards buying the bars and then re-selling…
Live shot of the Fed’s soft landing
My X valuation is $121,636. My earnings is $7,000. I guess I’m trading at a 17.37 P/E. I’m cheaper than the Mag 7’s! #sunhumor
@KobeissiLetter The amount of appreciation folks have seen put into something as simple as a high yield savings account or treasuries would completely offset the costs of getting a higher rate (If you’ve lived there like 5+ years)