TechDev @TechfDev_52
Entrepreneur | #Bitcoin and crypto analysis techdev52.substack.com Joined November 2010-
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Bitcoin Cycles Explained... USD tops at red bar tops. (not even red yet) Impulse tops at blue signal tops. (last cycle only one where red and blue were different - why most alts topped May 2021) Bear market while red bars decline. (ends when bars go green) Bull market ramp…
It’s not just the tops. Every “bear market” has ended precisely as red turned to green. Every “ramp” has lasted as long as bars were green. Every “hockey stick” has been marked by green flipping red (not the halving). And yes, every “top” has been marked by a peak in red.…
I sense the majority of this market is not ready for this next leg.
“If I put $100 in Bitcoin in 2010 I’d have $2.8B now.” No. If you bought $100 of Bitcoin in 2010 and watched it go to: $1k → $100k → $1.7M and did nothing Then watched $1.7M go to $170k and still did nothing Then watched $170k go to $110M and still did nothing Then…
Cup-and-handles. Inverse h&s. Whatever you call them, the small one targets 150k, and the big one 300k.
Every dip continues to have the crowd thinking maybe top, and that should tell you everything you need to know. Timeline on eggshells since 15K. Wall of worry. Worry when it crumbles.
There is a Bitcoin cycle - just not what many think. It mirrors the business cycle. Bitcoin tops when it tops. Bitcoin goes parabolic when it inflects. Bitcoin's "ramp" length = Time until inflection Bitcoin has always topped 14 months after inflection.
It's been 4.5 years since Altcoin Dominance did this...
Every Bitcoin top was marked exactly by a red bar top. We're not even out of green.
This liquidity signal is 5 for 5 at launching Bitcoin to new heights. It has at least doubled each time.
You need to consider the possibility that altcoin dominance is breaking out from a 7-year correction. That the 2021 leg wasn't even impulsive. That this 7-year RSI falling wedge will send altcoin strength on its first impulsive move in 8 years.
The rest of the alt market has broken out from its record-setting 51-month compression.
Every Bitcoin top has been 14 months from this point, yet many think we’re almost done.
Altcoins. Chart needs no commentary.
Patterns within patterns. BTC’s small cup-and-handle targets 150k, the big one 300k. Identify your token/portolio’s nested structures to help project where it’s going. techdev52.com/p/techdev-news…
I would say you've never seen a monthly move as savage as ETH's, but you just saw it from BTC last cycle. Almost like ETH's always been one behind...
The market’s job for the last 4 years has been to make most forget that what’s about to happen, can happen.
Four-year altcoin dominance breakout.
Instead of trying to guess which news event is “cycle top” worthy, what if you just watched the cycle? Because the one that’s always mattered is at the bottom.
Leg up for entire market + Leg down for BTC.D Draw your own conclusions.
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