Chief Market Strategist at@CarsonGroupLLC afor the perfect BBQ and host to the Facts vs Feelings podcast Manage more than $5 billion for clientscarsongroupl.com/research CincinnatiJoined April 2015
💥 💥 Our @CarsonResearch
Midyear Market Outlook: Uncharted Waters 🌊 is here! 💥 💥
We came into '25 bullish, but expected rocky waves early. We never wavered from our bullish stance like so many others.
Enjoy!
carsongroup.com/market-outlook…
S&P 500 >10% YTD heading into Q4?
Oct is down on avg and higher only 50% of time.
BUT Q4 higher 14 of past 15 times. Yes, 1987 was 16 times ago, still, this isn't bearish.
Since 2019 the S&P 500 is up 125%.
76% of that is coming from earnings growth and 19% from dividends.
No, this isn't a bubble, this rally is justified from strong earnings growth.
Ever since a 12 foot tall golden statue of @realDonaldTrump holding a Bitcoin was placed in DC we've seen #Bitcoin quite weak.
Huh, if only there were some clues things were getting a tad over the top!
November has never been lower when the S&P 500 was higher in May, June, July, August, and September.
But October and December are down on average. Something for everyone.
And just like that, initial jobless claims are no longer a worry. We pushed back pretty hard the past few weeks that the labor market was as bad as they kept telling us.
Down 46k in two weeks was the largest drop since Oct '21.
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