Wasteland Capital @_ecommerceshare

Escaped the Vampire Squid, surviving in the wasteland. Investing in bottlecaps, US UK EU & global assets. Also,jokes. Liking is not endorsing. Do your own DD. London Joined July 2013

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

9 months ago

A record $140 billion pumped into US equities since the election, dwarfing any other time (Source: FT). Huge incremental demand (this money must be used to buy stocks) + Limited supply (few are selling) = Stock prices go up. Ceteris paribus, it’s just how it works.

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

9 months ago

You used to be able to get 220 Bitcoins for $1, and people were upset because it would “take days to get a single coin”. Now you can get one immediately if you pay $100k. 🤷‍♂️

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

9 months ago

Q4 GDP growth estimates now raised to +3.2% (up from +2.7%) 🥹 Redbook retail index soars to +7.4% for Black Friday week 😲. Highest since Dec-22! LMFAO. This is not a recession, this is an overheating economy! And this before the full post-election animal spirits kick in...

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

9 months ago

So many accounts just keep pumping the same asset, stock or Ponzi, day in and day out, every single day, every other tweet. No matter what happens, it’s bullish for whatever it is they’re pumping. Reality not required. So delusional, yet so effective. Classic cult building 101.

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

9 months ago

Since the day Goldman upgraded China to BUY: $BABA down -28% Hang Seng index down -18% “BUY EVERYTHING!” Tepper in hiding Great job. Truly. Chef’s kiss. 👏 👏 👏

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

9 months ago

If your aim is to drive 3%+ 🇺🇸 GDP growth, here are the components you have to play with & how they have contributed recently. One has been the constant winner: Consumption. Nothing seems to stop Americans from growing consumer spending, insatiably. What else can grow & how?

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

9 months ago

Here’s slightly more granular look at Q3 GDP. How will… * efficiency/DOGE, * deregulation, * manufacturing reshoring, * deficit, * consumer sentiment, * global demand, * USD, * workforce, * tariffs, * Fed policy, * geopolitics, and more …play into this?

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

9 months ago

Record inflows into US stocks (+$448bn YTD annual cumulative). Record inflows into US Money Market funds (+$723bn YTD) Where is all this money coming from?

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

9 months ago

Small caps now +7.5% since “nuclear war” trended on Wednesday last week. 🤷‍♂️

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

9 months ago

In case you weren’t aware, S&P500 EPS growth outside the Mag 7 has been AWFUL for many quarters now. Last 6 quarters was all about the Mag 7, and that’s why they have outperformed (after the ‘22 Mag 7 clown-show). Into ‘25, an ex-Mag 7 EPS catch-up may be a key market driver.

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

9 months ago

Just a few months ago Goldman claimed to investors they had made 4.3x on Northvolt. Now, their funds will write down their $900m stake to zero. Reminder that many PE & VC valuations are purely fictional. But they make people feel better, as the values don’t fluctuate daily.

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

9 months ago

Let’s face it, investors love valuation delusion. Fantasy tends to look better than cash returns, doesn’t it? You can just “believe” the value is up! Question is, what banks & private credit funds are sitting on the $5.8bn of debt that’s outstanding? That P&L hit will be real.

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

10 months ago

The FBI has an $11bn annual budget. AppLovin $APP has an $111bn market cap. 🤷‍♂️

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

10 months ago

Desperate ongoing panic-buying in pretty much anything that’s liquid enough, and where the fundamentals are doing even the slightest bit better than expected. Right now, nothing else matters.

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

10 months ago

Europe’s best funded start up of all time, Northvolt, finally bit the dust and filed Chapter 11, zeroing a staggering $15bn of funding. ESG aura + “Trust me, bro” operational skills + Pigeon-brained oversight = Ponziverse magic! No SPAC deal to dump this on the public, sadly.

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

10 months ago

$TGT Like dog puke on the carpet 🐕 🤮, a simply barking bad earnings disaster. Rev +1.1%, comp sales +0.3%, store comp. sales DOWN -1.8%, all margins down, EPS -12%. Inventory +3%. Q4 guidance absolute TRASH, down 20%. All looks like dog💩 vs $WMT’s excellence. 18.5x ‘24 P/E.

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

10 months ago

This will take time to turn around and management & Board seem oblivious & incompetent. Product & price mix very un-compelling, or still suffering from “go woke go broke”? 🤷‍♂️ 18.5x P/E not exactly cheap for shrinking EPS. Support at $125. But what after? 😬

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

10 months ago

Coming up: How to nuclear war proof your portfolio.

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

10 months ago

$WMT Just KILLING it with a beat & raise across the board. Old Sam Walton would be proud! Rev +5.5%, +5.3% US comparable sales growth 😗, solid margin increase, EPS scaling. US ecom +22% to ~17% of total, International ecom +43% 😮. Inventory lean. Guidance ⬆️ to +5% ‘25 growth.

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Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

10 months ago

Now yes, the stock is at 31x P/E (Jan ‘26 year end), so not exactly cheap. Yet with fundamentals going up like this (estimates have been going up for a long time), it’s more like a broader-economy-flight-to-safety-play, bond-like w/ strong income growth more than anything else.