Australian Election Forecasts @aeforecasts
Makes probabilistic forecasts for Australian elections. aeforecasts.com Australia Joined January 2022-
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Australia, Roy Morgan poll: ALP (Centre-left): 34% (-3) L/NP (Centre-right|Conservative): 30% (-1) GRN (Green): 12% ONP (Right): 9% (+2) +/- vs. 30 June - 27 July 2025 Fieldwork: 28 July - 24 August 2025 Sample size: 5,001 ➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia
#ResolvePM Vic (state) ALP 32 (+8) L-NP 33 (-8) Grn 12 (-2) IND 9 (-5) others 13 (+6) My 2PP estimate 53=47 to ALP (+7) Changes (big changes!) since late March #springst
#ResolvePM ALP 37 L-NP 29 Grn 12 ON 9 IND 8 others 6 My 2PP estimate for these primaries 57.4 to ALP (+0.9)
#Newspoll 56-44 to ALP. ALP 36 L-NP 30 Grn 12 ON 9 others 13 Whoever does the pie charts for the Australian -1000 sack sack sack sack sack
Wolf+Smith 57-43 to ALP. ALP 36 L-NP 30. Pref PM Albanese 45-35 (pref PM polls favour incumbents, that's actually good for Ley) Link to PB not AFR because AFR failed to publish full primaries pollbludger.net/2025/08/06/wol…
Morgan 57-43. (Paying less attention than usual to federal polls at present but will get back into aggregating them later this year.)
Morgan 57-43. (Paying less attention than usual to federal polls at present but will get back into aggregating them later this year.)
#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 38 L-NP 32 GRN 13 IND 8 others 10. My 2PP estimate 57.7 to ALP (+5.4). Federal boost effect?
#ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 38 L-NP 32 GRN 13 IND 8 others 10. My 2PP estimate 57.7 to ALP (+5.4). Federal boost effect?
Australia, Resolve poll: ALP (Centre-left): 35% L/NP (Centre-right|Conservative): 29% (-3) GRN (Green): 12% ONP (Right): 8% (+2) +/- vs. 2025 election result Fieldwork: 13-18 July 2025 Sample size: 2,311 ➤ oceaniaelects.com/australia
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/07/2025-f… 2025 Federal Post-Election Pendulum We now have a federal pendulum skew like Victoria at state level; without redistribution the Coalition could need 51% 2PP just to put Labor into minority.
@kevinbonham DemosAU demosau.com/wp-content/upl… 2PP: ALP 59, L-NP 41 P: ALP 36, L-NP 26, GRN 14, ON 9, Other 15, Undecided 9 Interesting breakdowns by sex, age, education and home ownership
And also Redbridge Vic (state) ALP 33 L-NP 38 Grn 14 others 15 2PP ALP leads 51.5-48.5 Allan govt has right focus/priorities net -28 Battin + L-NP have done enough, deserve to win net -19 #SpringSt
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/07/2025-f… 2025 Federal Election Pollster Performance Review
Morgan 57.5 to ALP. Feel that narrowing from 58!
Morgan 57.5 to ALP. Feel that narrowing from 58!
#YouGov SA (state) ALP 48 Lib 21 Green 14 ON 7 IND 8 others 2 2PP 67-33 to ALP (!) adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-aus… #saparli
Missed this but last night there was an #Ipsos poll which is hard to benchmark as no voting intention polls from them this term (but did poll previous terms) Raw primaries (not comparable with other polls) ALP 28 L-NP 33 Green 13 ON 8 others 14 undecided 5 51-49 to ALP
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/05/2025-e… 2025 Election Day: Newspoll Says Comfortable Re-Election
Hmmm primaries in final YouGov poll sum to 98.8 au.yougov.com/politics/artic…
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