. @bianc0_esearch
Macro investment research at https://t.co/eVQLvORp2k Our total return index is at https://t.co/XbSIo7kW67 The ETF WTBN tracks our Index. biancoresearch.eth biancoresearch.com Chicago, IL Joined July 2018-
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Mid-year update We review the performance of the Bianco Research Total Return Index and the ETF that tracks it, the WisdomTree Bianco Fund (WTBN). Also, the fair value of bonds and why Trump's demand that the Fed cut rates can lead to higher LT yields. biancoadvisors.com/2025-mid-year-…
Goolsbee says the Fed has to get inflation to 2%. PERIOD But the inflation rate now is well above 2% and it’s trending higher So how does cutting rates 100 to 125 basis points lower the inflation rate to a target (2%) it hasn’t been to in an almost 6 years? —- Bloomberg…
Cullen is correct in that Miran laid out an understandable argument for lowering rates. And it is because of the detail he gave that he CAN BE criticized. And, yes, I, too, have issues with his argument. BUt before we get to that, let's give him props the for the detail and…
Cullen is correct in that Miran laid out an understandable argument for lowering rates. And it is because of the detail he gave that he CAN BE criticized. And, yes, I, too, have issues with his argument. BUt before we get to that, let's give him props the for the detail and…
In his speech today, Miran argues that trade policy changes, by boosting savings, are a factor that will reduce the neutral rate of interest (among several others). In this op-ed last year, Miran and a co-author took a somewhat different view, where he outlined at least two…
In his speech today, Miran argues that trade policy changes, by boosting savings, are a factor that will reduce the neutral rate of interest (among several others). In this op-ed last year, Miran and a co-author took a somewhat different view, where he outlined at least two…
The stock market disagrees
The stock market disagrees
1/2 The Mag 7 stocks are now 34.91% of the S&P 500, a new record concentration level.
2/2 As far as the top 5 stocks go, they are currently 29.21% of the S&P 500 (right label), the largest weighting for these stocks in at least 60 years.
1/2 Over the last 50 years of gold trading (gray lines), 2025 (blue) has only seen one better year, 1979 (green).
2/2 Conversely, the dollar in 2025 (blue) only seen two worse years, 1972 and 1986 (two gray lines below the blue line). This year is still tracking worse than 1981 (red), the biggest loss for the dollar in a year since 1972 (gray lines).
Something to observe from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting: To control interest rates in the Fed’s post-2008 ample reserves operating framework, the Fed has several different administrative rates it sets to control overnight borrowing rates. Perhaps the most important of these is the…
@dandolfa The Fed has held a mistaken belief for 30+ years that they need to PRESENT unanimity (or near unanimity) in their voting to give credibility to their policy. This is where all the problems begin. The result is FOMC members have now forgotten who they work for. Their boss is NOT…
This story, like so many, praises Chairman Powell for having a near unanimous vote. This is the single biggest problem with the Federal Reserve. The groupthink and the rigging of the vote to make it look like they’re all on the same page just hurts the Fed’s credibility.
This story, like so many, praises Chairman Powell for having a near unanimous vote. This is the single biggest problem with the Federal Reserve. The groupthink and the rigging of the vote to make it look like they’re all on the same page just hurts the Fed’s credibility.
Anna is correct below when she says: "I have not seen a meeting with so much contradictions." --- This meeting was a mess. See the labels in the dot plot below. One member of the FOMC thinks the Fed is going to HIKE rates this year. One (Stephen Miran) thinks it is going to cut…
Anna is correct below when she says: "I have not seen a meeting with so much contradictions." --- This meeting was a mess. See the labels in the dot plot below. One member of the FOMC thinks the Fed is going to HIKE rates this year. One (Stephen Miran) thinks it is going to cut… https://t.co/qPlJGL57ln
Why didn’t she lay this out on day one of the first accusation and this would have gone away. Instead she call two mortgages signed as a primary residence a “clerical error.”
Why didn’t she lay this out on day one of the first accusation and this would have gone away. Instead she call two mortgages signed as a primary residence a “clerical error.”
Trump’s Fed Takeover? Dollar Down, Gold & Bitcoin Could Soar Even More Trump’s potential Fed takeover could spark unprecedented turmoil—risking a weaker $DXY while fueling $GLD and $IBIT. In this short video, @biancoresearch, @tobinsmith, and @TMSchoenberger discuss why this…
🔥 Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) doesn’t hold back. On Buy Hold Sell, Bianco joins Todd Schoenberger & Tobin Smith to tackle: 💸 Fed politics & inflation ⚖️ Tariff fallout & $210B risk 🏡 Housing crisis 💵 Future of the dollar 🌍 Sanctions & Russia’s oil Watch now 👉…
*US JOBLESS CLAIMS 263,000 IN SEPT. 6 WEEK; EST. 235K --- 4-year high and dominating bond trading over CPI. I labeled (red) this with the major holidays for 2025. Claims have jumped around every holiday this year, with Labor Day the biggest of these jumps. The BLS has long…
The probability of a cut in September has barely moved on today's data. 11% for 50 bps cut 89% for 25 bps cut 0% for anything else
1/4 Payrolls were revised lower by 911k y'day. I see a lot of bad takes about this. tl:dr, Cos hired a lot of undocumented workers (Hyundai raid in GA last week), so no withholding taxes. The jobs mkt might still be in balance, and cutting rates will push inflation higher. 🧵
1/4 Payrolls were revised lower by 911k y'day. I see a lot of bad takes about this. tl:dr, Cos hired a lot of undocumented workers (Hyundai raid in GA last week), so no withholding taxes. The jobs mkt might still be in balance, and cutting rates will push inflation higher. 🧵
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