Y.C. Canopus @canopus_chang
🧡 universe, dinosaurs, music, history, physics, philosophy, economics, @oh_ha_ha_ , and art, deeply. Taiwan Joined January 2019-
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The logistic fit is nice for the ratio of Total Public Debt to Money Supply M2. This morning's unemployment rate gives this administration ammunition to inflate away that debt by increasing M2. 1/2
The index of aggregate weekly payrolls is a good monthly proxy for nominal income growth and correlates well with NGDP growth. It was up 4.4% on the year in August, a new cycle low. The 3-month annualized rate dropped to 2.4% from a downwardly revised 3.2% (prev 4.6%) in July.
Job openings fell in July to the lowest level since September 2024, holding the 3-month average close to 7.4 million openings. The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers edged just below 1 for the first time since early 2021.
没衰退情况下，主动降息越激进，长债利率飙升越厉害
今日も一日お疲れ様でした🎵 乃木坂46の久保史緒里さんの 動画CMを見て疲れを癒してください！ #忍者CODE #プログラミングスクール
关于关税对于通胀的影响，我更同意贝森特的观点： 你不能同时说关税会导致通胀，然后大美丽法案的降税也会导致通胀。 关税的本质是美国政府向全球出口商，美国进口商，美国零售商，美国消费者收税！！！他是一种向全球抽水的行为，是紧缩而不是宽松政策。…
An approximated conversion of a cat age into the corresponding human age. [✏️ petMD]
So a non-human read (chatgpt, Grok, our nlp fedspeak model) of Jay Powell speech all conclude it carries hawkish tone.
@APompliano Pomp, I'm not sure if you listened to the speech but I'm pretty sure this Bloomberg summary is inaccurate. Powell explicitly affirmed the 2% rate: "We also continue to view a longer-run inflation rate of 2 percent as most consistent with our dual-mandate goals. We believe that…
An alternative to the standard cosmological model where matter is converted to dark energy during stellar collapse results in an accurate cosmological expansion history and a summed neutrino mass posterior distribution peaked at positive mass go.aps.org/4fNntjB #OpenAccess
论专业性还得是彭博，今天那么夸张的PPI，他们根据CPI和PPI计算出核心PCE大概在0.28！而其中0.11来自于金融服务（和股市上涨相关）。如果去掉金融服务，环比0.17。和关税相关的商品出现了通缩，没错，通缩，不是通胀。 0.28的预测会有误差吗？有，但不会很大，前后0.02左右
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おそろい時計つくった(*´꒳`*)🩷💛💚 @kuboshi1st @haruyama_555
🇺🇸🌎 #Trump Eyes 100% Chips Tariff, Exempting Firms That Invest in US - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
#乃木坂46ANN をTFで🎧 24歳になった #乃木坂46 #久保史緒里 が大阪からお送りしました🎂 「ドラマクイズ2025」で久保さんの感情が出尽くしました📺 radikoは👇 radiko.jp/share/?sid=LFR…
The Illusion of Security: When Math Exposes the Truth About Dollar-Based Wealth Let’s run the numbers. Since the U.S. broke from the gold standard in 1971, the dollar has lost approximately 87–90% of its purchasing power. That means $100 in 1971 buys only about $10–13 worth of…
KC Fed President Schmid’s speech shows he gets it 100% about how to think about tariffs. Here is a way to talk about uncertainty without just offering platitudes: “The pricing of each tariffed product is determined by the action and interaction of many different actors, from the…
The reason it looks like there were more frequent recessions in the 1800s is because the methodology for tracking them changed. The NBER implemented a new methodology from the 1920s onward, but never updated the older data which used a method that counted them more frequently.…
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