Bjorn Amundson @couldbebjorn
CFP® | Quarry Hill Advisors quarryhilladvisors.com St Paul, MN Joined August 2023-
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I understand why ppl are nervous about a slowing labor market but it's remarkable how stable and low the unemployment rate has been These are the readings from the past 18 months: 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4% 3.9% 3.9%
Retail trades now 18% of stock-market volume, versus 10% in 2010, creating more opportunity for irrational prices (bubbles) as limits to arbitrage prevent sophisticated investors from correcting mispricing. Retail investors also tend to overweight left side of factors, wrong side
Resources for Teaching Tariffs from @ATabarrok marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…
Most US investors: "I don't own any foreign stocks, but I'm diversified already since US stocks have foreign revenue." via @dimensional
This is my quant
Build-A-Bear stock is up over 2,500% in the past 5 years Palantir: 1,602.93% Nvidia: 1,274.64% Are we all trying too hard?
If history is any guide, the Magnificent 7 wont stay magnificent forever. Better off diversifying.
Nutritionist: “Your diet is bad.” Dentist: “Your brushing is wrong.” Friends: “Your life is a mess.” Liquor store guy: “Excellent choice.”
The S&P 500 is now trading at over 3.2x sales, its highest valuation in history. $SPX Video: youtube.com/watch?v=y-XQbm…
Great write up/killer finish. “The higher multiples imply that prospects of the likes of Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple improved dramatically in the last two years, but have they? These companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on machine learning and are now…
Great write up/killer finish. “The higher multiples imply that prospects of the likes of Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple improved dramatically in the last two years, but have they? These companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on machine learning and are now… https://t.co/nviITpTG4a
Secret of the US stock outperformance vs international in the last ten years (according to M*): 1. Multiple expansion 2. Currency return 2025 is beginning to show reversal of #2.
Nvidia now makes up over 8% of the S&P 500, the highest weighting for any single stock in the index on record. $NVDA Video: youtube.com/watch?v=R_ZsO0…
The ratio of Growth stocks to Value stocks in the US has hit a new record high, surpassing the peak of the dot-com bubble in March 2000. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=R_ZsO0…
The Ratio of US Large Caps to US Small Caps is at its highest level since the April 1999 peak, more than 3 standard deviations above the historical mean. Video: youtube.com/watch?v=R_ZsO0…
S&P 500 valuations vs. the 2000 peak via @LeutholdGroup
It will be fun to watch every single endowment and foundation judge their performance vs. a low-cost, tax-efficient investable ETF... Let the games begin! papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
“If I put $100 in Bitcoin in 2010 I’d have $2.8B now.” No. If you bought $100 of Bitcoin in 2010 and watched it go to: $1k → $100k → $1.7M and did nothing Then watched $1.7M go to $170k and still did nothing Then watched $170k go to $110M and still did nothing Then…
The S&P 500 has never been more concentrated in just three stocks than it is today with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple representing nearly 21% of the index.
If you asked me 3-4 years ago if it would be possible for this chart to do what this chart has done, I would have said no. Growth stocks have been clocking Value stocks in the US, while the exact same timeframe witnessed overseas Value stocks clock Growth. Wild action, IMO.
The Expensive p/cf decile yields 1% vs a long-run average of 3.9% The Value p/cf decile yields 23.2% vs a long-run average of 26.3% The relative yields have never been wider at 6.8x.
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