David Settle, CMT @david_settle_cm

Today, we're THIS CLOSE to a signal that we haven't seen on $SPX in nearly 53 YEARS: an RSI reading at 80 or higher on the same day as a CCI reading at 200 or higher. The last time was Dec 29-30, 1970.

This is the strongest parabolic move in $SPY since its 9/2/2020 parabolic peak - in terms of extremely high DI+, extremely low DI- and extremely high ADX. Of course, that peak came off a similarly extreme low DMI reading at the COVID low 6 months earlier. This one came off…

Money flow has been much better over the past week and is now approaching similar levels from the August 2022 peak even though $SPX is roughly 10% above that level. Obviously, it's nowhere near its 2022 levels where the $SPX ATH is. By comparison, when we came off the COVID low…

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

The spread between the 10-year yield and 3-month yield dropped to its lowest level today since...the FOMC meeting with the last rate hike. This is the biggest drop in the spread since the last liquidity injection surrounding the regional banking crisis in March

It's one thing to get a strong Heikin Ashi candle body (like we have so far this week on $RUT - the 5th biggest since June 2020). What is uncommon is this week's combination of a big candle body (orange arrow) AND a large upper wick (blue arrow). That is a sign of exhaustion

The New Highs-New Lows Index on @StockCharts exploded the past two days from 89 (orange arrow on Dec 12) to its highest level since May 2021 (blue arrow). This is the biggest breakout of its Keltner Channel (a volatility band) in years. The % of $SPX stocks ABOVE 50-day SMA was…

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

$SKEW closed above 150 yesterday. Concern in the options market for fat-tail risk exploded in the past couple of days - up 16% in the past week

From the first rate hike on March 16, 2022 (blue arrow) to the last hike on July 26 (orange arrow), $SPX increased 6.88% during that timeframe as the Fed raised rates 550bps in 16 months off a base of 0%. So far, since the last rate hike, $SPX is up 3.03%

12/15/23 - View last night's #MarketOutlook from @MarketScholars here: wp.me/p9upfx-dwQ Discussed: $SPY $IWM $VIX $DIA $QQQ $EEM $EFA $GLD $TLT $USO $UUP $BTC $XLE $XLU $XLF $XLI $XLB $XLV $XLC $XLY $XLK $ADBE 🐂📈

ICYMI: 12/18/23 - View last night's #MarketOutlook from @MarketScholars here: wp.me/p9upfx-dx9 Discussed: $SPY $IWM $VIX $DIA $QQQ $EEM $EFA $GLD $TLT $USO $UUP $BTC $XLE $XLU $XLF $XLI $XLB $XLV $XLC $XLY $XLK $NVDA 🐂📈

So, in 2023 we did NOT get rate cuts and actually got 2 more HIKES. Also, the yield spread stayed inverted. As a result, strong bullish 2023. IMO, if we are to have a bullish 2024 for $SPX (especially since we're going into the new calendar year on a rare parabolic move), we need…

David Settle, CMT @davidsettle42

2 years ago

So, in 2023 we did NOT get rate cuts and actually got 2 more HIKES. Also, the yield spread stayed inverted. As a result, strong bullish 2023. IMO, if we are to have a bullish 2024 for $SPX (especially since we're going into the new calendar year on a rare parabolic move), we need…

1 0 15 16K 1

Most of these 99th percentile $SPX rallies came off of extreme washout lows (in terms of either extreme levels of volatility, above-average volume, higher average ranges and/or strong levels of negative breadth). In this case, we had ONLY bad breadth but never dipped below -100…

Charlie Bilello @charliebilello

2 years ago

Most of these 99th percentile $SPX rallies came off of extreme washout lows (in terms of either extreme levels of volatility, above-average volume, higher average ranges and/or strong levels of negative breadth). In this case, we had ONLY bad breadth but never dipped below -100…

31 302 1K 341K 141

Download Image

One reason the returns for $SPY has been so strong this calendar year is because it finished 2022 near its lows of the year. This year, we are closing near the highs (as we normally do). But, we're not just closing at 52-week highs, we're closing at EXTREME parabolic highs:…

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

It's been 49 years since the end of the 1973-1974 bear market. There's been 28 years (or 57% of the time) of 10% or more gains for $SPX. 15 of those 28 were 20% or more. This year currently ranks 14th on the list of 28. So, a strong year but not an outstanding year in context…

If we would have rallied more gradually off the October 27 low and finished the year up 12-15%, then we could feel confident $SPX would finish up 10% or more again in 2024 - especially if the Fed doesn't cut rates until late in the year at the earliest and the yield curve stays…

Eventually, this yield spread will go from -150bps to +100bps or more. What will happen to $SPX when it does? Can anyone say with a straight face that we've achieved a "soft landing" or "avoided a recession" until this spread gets back to +100bps? The bull case for 2024 is the…

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

12/22/23 - View last night's #MarketOutlook for 2024 from @MarketScholars here: wp.me/p9upfx-dy9 Discussed: $SPY $IWM $VIX $DIA $QQQ $EEM $EFA $GLD $TLT $USO $UUP $BTC $XLE $XLU $XLF $XLI $XLB $XLV $XLK $XLY $XLC $DIS 🐂📈 #MerryChristmas #HappyNewYear

Big shift in the McClellanOscillator this morning on $NYSE. It's been above 0 for two months and has gone straight to decently strong negative levels $SPX

Another big change in this week: $XLK breaks below its 17-day EMA with XLK:SPY ration breaking its 50-day SMA. Its RRG chart is showing negative and worsening Relative Strength and Momentum $QQQ

Yesterday, $SPY flipped its PSAR, turned its 20-day Hull MA red and produced a sizable bearish Heikin Ashi candle (blue arrows) as its PPO with the 200-day Hull MA has started to soften (orange box)