Jeremy💹🧲 @jeremycross__

Christian, Patriot, volunteer firefighter, golf lover & coach I will fight for my God, my Family and my Country! $Swuve4reaL Joined May 2017

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Bravos Research @bravosresearch

2 months ago

7/ We may be early, but we’re trimming our US equity exposure Especially in tech names like Spotify, KAC, and IBM that have been melting up

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Bravos Research @bravosresearch

2 months ago

Every major US recession since 1980 was preceded by this signal And it has just triggered once again Buckle up. A thread 🧵

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Bravos Research @bravosresearch

2 months ago

2/ This line you see here has surged right before every US recession since the 1980s It’s from the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey, showing how consumers feel about the future of the job market

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Bravos Research @bravosresearch

2 months ago

3/ More precisely, it tracks the percentage of consumers expecting fewer jobs over the next 6 months Today, that number sits around 30%

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Bravos Research @bravosresearch

2 months ago

4/ Every single time this survey has printed above 30%, a recession either began shortly after or was already underway

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Bravos Research @bravosresearch

2 months ago

5/ Yet despite this rising fear, the current unemployment rate is still at 4.2% This is a level the Fed defines as “full employment” Consumers think that’s about to change within the next 6 months We agree, but not on the timing

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Bravos Research @bravosresearch

2 months ago

6/ By the way - Happy 4th of July We're doing a big sale on our service to celebrate Our goal is simple: help you spot and trade the most profitable market opportunities in a step-by-step manner

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Bravos Research @bravosresearch

2 months ago

12/ For context, the 2001 recession began below a ratio of 1 And the 2008 recession began at 0.6 So while the job market isn’t in crisis, it’s close enough to be vulnerable if new shocks hit

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Bravos Research @bravosresearch

2 months ago

17/ US corporate profit margins are still at all-time highs Even a 10–20% decline from tariffs would leave companies more profitable than any time in the past 20 years

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Bravos Research @bravosresearch

2 months ago

18/ Historically, profit margins tend to drop 19% in the year before a recession Today, we haven’t seen any decline yet

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Bravos Research @bravosresearch

2 months ago

19/ Here's another important data point: CEO expectations. The Conference Board also surveys corporate leaders on hiring, capex, and outlook The latest reading shows that 64% of CEOs expect the economy to worsen in the next 6 months

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Bravos Research @bravosresearch

2 months ago

20/ Now you would expect CEOs to usually have better visibility than most The last 4 times this survey hit current levels were late 2022, early 2020, early 2009, and early 2001

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Bravos Research @bravosresearch

2 months ago

21/ But if we look at what happened to the stock market after those readings, something interesting emerges: 3 out of 4 were followed by significant gains CEO pessimism often marks the bottom for markets, not the top