Ms Quantitative Analyst @ms_quant
Woman in STEM, aspiring Quant, love quant finance 📚💱🎓 Joined February 2023-
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Dr. Roman Yampolskiy spent 15 years trying to make AI safe. And he just told Steven Bartlett his terrifying conclusion: "It's impossible. We're creating alien intelligence and gambling with 8 billion lives." Here's what the AI industry doesn't want you to know: 🧵
I’m Russian. My girlfriend is Italian. We’ve been together 2+ years… And her culture still blows my mind. 11 bizarre things about Italian life I just can’t comprehend: 🧵🤌
How do you monopolize any industry? According to Mukesh Ambani, Asia's richest man, you give away $25 billion. His competitors laughed... Until he bankrupted 11 companies, created $100 billion & disrupted India's economy. This is history's most ruthless takeover: 🧵
6/ China and Japan are the two biggest holders of the US debt. They have been dumping it since 2014 and this accelerated after the Trump administration imposed very high tariffs on foreign countries. This means that the Fed will likely step in and buy the government bonds...
5/ This will create a demand shock... The US will have to either offer very high yields to attract buyers or the Fed will have to step in and buy government assets. Big holders are already selling US debt...
9/ His advice to deal with such paradigm shifts? Own diversified assets, reduce cash holdings, think in terms of purchasing power not dollar value.
8/ US will have to drastically cut spending to balance its budget and pay its debt... This will lead to slow growth and deflation. This is a period that is much like 1930s, Dalio says:
4/ He is afraid that the USD could lose its reserve currency status. The US needs to refinance $9 trillion debt this year but largest buyers don't want it. It's offending foreign bond holders like Japan and China with tariffs, so they don't want US debt. What does this mean?
3/ The US will likely be in a recession because of tariffs. Inflation will go up, the Fed will raise already high rates to fight inflation and this will slow down growth... But... He says the recent tariff drama could lead to something much worse than a recession..
This man can see the future. Ray Dalio predicted: • Dotcom Bubble (2000) • Great Financial Crisis (2008) • Covid Bubble (2021) Now he predicts something worse than all: End of the global monetary order. Here is his latest warning:
2/ He forecasted a great debt crisis a few years ago. He predicted that Fed's 2008 intervention would lead to a social chasm between asset owners and non-owners. This would lead to populism... We saw this happen as Trump made a comeback to White House. Next is recession...
1/ Ray Dalio predicted the 2008 Financial Crisis. He saw: - Debt holders weren't able to pay back. - Interest rates were very low. - Fed had to step in and buy assets. This is how he positioned defensively and aggressively at the right time. He now has another forecast...
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