pennyether @pennyetherr

Public BTC Miner analysis, like no one else. Won't take refuge in the false security of consensus (except BTC). Critical thinker, happily accept corrections. Joined July 2015

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pennyether @penny_ether

10 months ago

$CORZ at the price it was before 120MWs of HPC announced (Oct 22, 8:00am), worth about $124m/yr in profits across 12 years. Earnings are after market close on Wednesday, and I expect them to be monumental in terms of future guidance. They've now secured 500MWs of long-term HPC…

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pennyether @penny_ether

12 months ago

$IREN is buying 1,080 GPUs for $43.9m (all-in cost, includes cabling, racks, labor, etc). Here's how the math breaks down: This totals only 1.35MW of capacity. They're estimating around $2.00 to $2.50 / GPUh in revenue, which at 1.25KW/GPU is around $1.80/KWH. With costs at…

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

$CORZ / $SQ - A quick and dirty description of the upcoming new paradigm of ASICs... I believe the industry term is "c'mon, just the chip". Currently, the way baby bitcoin are currently made begins when miners dump a ton of the shares in the open market and collect the cash.…

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

$CORZ just sold $400m of convertible notes. Money in the bank. Terms are 3.00% interest, with another $60m possible within 13 days. Maturing on Sep 1, 2029. This is upsized from yesterday's proposed $350m + $52.5m. Net proceeds will be $386.4m, meaning it cost $13.6m in various…

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

$MIGI 20MW + 144MW deal implies an absolute insanity of an undervaluation, so I bought a lot of them. They are so under covered, hell I don't cover them, that it took all day for them to ramp up in price despite a ludicrous value proposition. I might be missing something and…

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

$RIOT - Rather interesting move here. They had $278m of their previous ATM left, but they opted to terminate and open a brand new $750m ATM.. while their stock is at 52w lows and it costs ~50% more $RIOT shares to buy $BITF shares than it did in May. If they continue to buy…

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

$CLSK - Not a good report, IMHO. The real story here are cash SG&A expenses ballooning, and CoR's coming in higher than last quarter (on a $/KWH basis). They barely improved all-in cash hashcost, moving it from $44.44 to $43.85, despite installing ~$75m in new miners. First,…

pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

$CLSK coming up today. They're a pureplay miner and, true to the name, have a pretty clean 10Q. Can they defeat $CORZ's mining operations? My guesses: - Revenue: $104m - CoR: ($41.2m) - Prof fees: ($2m) - Payroll: ($18m) - G&A: ($8m) - Loss on disposal of assets: ($2m) - Change…

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

Cash costs by company, by line item -- in $/BTC, hashcost, and $/KWH. It takes a ton of work and attention to detail to come up with this, and I'm fairly certain it's more accurate than anything else out there. $RIOT and $MARA are Q2, the rest are Q1. $/BTC is a garbage metric…

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

Bought even more $CORZ today. $DLR: EV/EBITDA = 19x $EQIX: EV/EBITDA = 26x $CORZ: EV/EBITDA (just from CoreWeave) = ~12x This is assuming a fully diluted Core Scientific (410m shares), and only the EBITDA of the CoreWeave deal (~$280m/yr). This excludes: - possibility of…

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

I think the days of single-digit $CORZ are gone for good.

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

For anyone buying other miners, and not $CORZ, what's your reason for passing on $CORZ? Not saying you should buy it, but if you've ruled it out for one reason or another, would love to hear why!

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

Tomorrow looking good so far.

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

$MARA seems to be hitting its stride, with respect to hashrate. Very likely they're at a new ATH. With 90% confidence intervals: - 7d: ~33 EH/s ± 5EH/s - 3d: ~42 EH/s ± 10 EH/s Disclaimer: These are just facts, and not a comment about the stock, or anything else.

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

$IREN you guys will love this: GPUs pull in ~$4/KWH. If $IREN sold AI Cloud services, they'd pull in about $35m/yr per 1MW. They'll have 2,000 MWs or whatever, so that's $70b/yr in revenue. Then we just assign a 10x P/S, and that's a $700b company. Their market cap is currently…

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

Numbers for HPC are so insane that I'm feeling like $CORZ actually got a raw deal, even including the capex required to upgrade their DCs. Let's look at CW's unit costs. I'm going by HPC KWH: Datacenter & Utility: To $CORZ, CW is paying $3.5b/12 years = $291m/yr. Plus for the…

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

I've never felt so excited about owning something fundamentally free from the grasp of politicians, probably because it never existed before. #Bitcoin

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

$CORZ Christmas came early. Another 70MW of HPC, appears to be same exact terms as the first 200MW. That'll put yearly cashflow from HPC at around $280m. For reference, at $48 hashprice and $40 hashcost (better than any big miner in Q1), that's around 95 EH/s of hashrate in…

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

$CORZ - Last two sessions. What a difference having a monster HPC contract makes. $208m/yr in cashflow is more than 35 EH/s would make in an entire year at present mining conditions.

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pennyether @penny_ether

a year ago

One wonders if the market is going to care about Q2 cash flows, or if there will be perpetual FOMO of a BTC rally and AI/HPC deals. Literally, I'm the only one.