Bruce Golding @AlchemyAnalysis
Director of UK Election Data Vault. Chartered Statistician who specialises in data collection, analysis, & visualisation. electiondatavault.co.uk London Joined April 2009-
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The final polls are in, our final polling average for UK voting intention (with change from last election): LAB 40.1 (+8.0) CON 20.9 (-21.8) REF 15.9 (+13.9) LIB 11.1 (-0.4) GRE 5.8 (+3.2) LAB lead CON by 19.2 (+29.8) CON lead REF by 4.9 (-35.7) electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/polling…
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Our model shows the campaign has only had a modest effect on the likely outcome. Labour are headed for a landslide, our current seat estimates (with change since May 23rd): LAB 382 (-11) CON 153 (+17) LIB 32 (+8) SNP 12 (-5) OTH 21 (-1) Toss-Ups 49 (-9) electiondatavault.co.uk/handicapping/f…
Latest Polling Average for UK Voting Intention for 1st July 2024 (with change from a week ago): LAB 40.3 (-0.9) CON 20.9 (-0.3) REF 15.8 (+0.3) LIB 11.1 (+0.3) GRE 5.6 (-0.3) LAB lead CON by 19.4 (-0.6) CON lead REF by 5.0 (-0.6) electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/polling…
Latest forecast for seat changes from the Election Data Vault: LAB 382 (+182) CON 153 (-219) LIB 32 (+24) SNP 12 (-36) OTH 21 (-2) Toss-Ups 49 (+49) electiondatavault.co.uk/handicapping/f…
Latest seat forecast from the Election Data Vault: LAB 382 (Lean 15, Likely 46, Safe 321) CON 153 (26, 57, 70) LIB 32 (4, 9, 19) SNP 12 (5, 7, 0) OTH 21 (0, 5, 16) Toss-Ups 49 electiondatavault.co.uk/handicapping/f…
Latest seat forecast from the Election Data Vault: LAB 382-421 CON 153-194 LIB 32-45 SNP 11-21 OTH 21-24 Labour Maj 114 - 192 electiondatavault.co.uk/handicapping/f…
The Conservatives lead over Reform has been shrinking through the campaign, our average shows the gap as: 22/05 12.2 (Election Called) 02/06 13.0 (Day before Farage announced) 09/06 11.3 16/06 8.5 23/06 6.0 01/07 5.0 (Latest polls) electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/polling…
Current ratings for all Conservative held seats from the Election Data Vault: Safe, Likely or Lean CON: 114 Toss-Ups: 28 Lean LAB: 7 Lean LIB: 4 Likely LAB: 30 Likely LIB: 3 Safe Labour: 74 Safe LIB: 8 electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/candida…
Current ratings for cabinet ministers seats: Safe CON: 7 Likely CON: 2 Toss-Ups: 4 Lean LAB: 1 (Mark Harper) Likely LIB: 1 (Jeremy Hunt) Likely LAB: 2 (Victoria Prentis, Mel Stride) Safe LAB: 1 (Grant Shapps) Safe LIB: 1 (Alex Chalk) electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/candida…
Latest forecast for SNP held seats from the Election Data Vault: SNP 11 (4 Lean, 7 Likely, 0 Safe) LAB 27 (0, 12, 15) LIB 1 (0,1,0) Toss-Ups 9 electiondatavault.co.uk/charts/regiona…
Latest forecast for Conservative held seats from the Election Data Vault: CON 151 (24 Lean, 62 Likely, 65 Safe) LAB 156 (10, 36, 110) LIB 24 (5, 7, 12) Toss-Ups 41 electiondatavault.co.uk/handicapping/f…
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