All-Met Data Analytics @AllMetData
DC Area Native. Sports Fan. Data Nerd. allmetdata.com Joined August 2017-
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Here is how our Elo model sizes up the 2019 VHSL Football State Championship games...
Here is our model run for the VHSL State Semifinal Playoff games today. Westfield/S.County has to be the most anticipated game in Northern VA in some time. Will be a fun one. Tuscarora is a challenge to model with their move to Div 4. Like their chances to get the W.
One game I have been looking at a lot is Westfield/Yorktown. I think with some reasonable adjustments based on this season's data, you could move this closer to a 60/40 contest. In that range you are talking about a highly competitive match-up. Don't count the Patriots out.
We have expanded the model this week to include all VHSL Regional Championship football games. Best of luck to all involved, really stuck by the quality of the remaining teams and this week's matchups.
Here are our regular season results. Favorites won their games just under 80% of the time, while teams listed at 70%+ won over 90% of the time. Our benchmarks were good in the 50-60% range, but anything can happen there. 6 of 10 of tonight's playoff games fall in this range.
Posting our model run for all the Northern VA teams participating in VHSL regional semifinal football playoff games tonight. Some really great match-ups, good luck to all involved.
Here are the results of our model run for the first round of the VHSL Playoffs (Northern VA teams only).
Publishing the model run for the final week of the VHSL Northern VA HS Football regular season.
Games of the Week: South Lakes (50.8% to Win) @ Yorktown Patriot (61% to Win) vs. Stonewall Jackson Best possible upset picks: Wakefield, McLean, & Chantilly
Here is this week's model run for the Week#10 VHSL Northern VA HS Football games.
Here is an updated list of the area programs on the rise based on increase in our Elo ratings during the 2019 season.
Here are our Week#9 VHSL Northern VA HS Football game predictions...
Heard from MV Nation last week. Simply put, our model is struggling to keep up with the Majors who are flat out surging. Since Coach Fritts took over, their rating has increased nearly 20%, almost unheard of in 3.5 years. Make no mistake, Mt.Vernon is an elite team in D6.
Game to Watch#2 - Centreville (68.7% to Win) @ Mt. Vernon Mt. Vernon has been shooting up our ratings for several seasons now and gets a shot at a long time local powerhouse tonight at home. Not an easy task, but another chance to put the area on notice that they have arrived.
Game to Watch#1 - Madison (60.5% to Win) vs. Chantilly Chantilly is a team majorly on the rise albeit against a relatively easy schedule. Madison is top program coming off a strong showing against juggernaut Westfield. Very interested to see what the Chargers do in this spot.
Here is a look at the area programs on the rise in 2019 based on change in Elo rating.
Rolling out our Week#8 VHSL Northern VA HS Football game predictions...
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Here are some thoughts on 14 years ago. Also... #NeverPunt
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Fuck you Dan Snyder!!! Sell the team to the Lerner family. Hail to the Nationals!!!!!!
Who you got tonight?? I'm on the bandwagon still. Although, I'd love to see extra innings, which probably doesn't favor the Nats. x.com/stevegleason/s…
I'm on the Nats bandwagon.
As your world changes, as our world changes - choose wonder and awe, over panic and fear. Wonder and awe open us to exploration, innovation, and creativity. -SG #KeepExploring
There is no greater time in history to raise a family. More than ever, on a global scale, our kids can be anything they want to be. Bounded only by their talents, their interests, their discipline, and their work ethic. Be involved. Be active. Stay involved. Stay active. -SG
RPI Ranking - 6A 1 Colonial Forge 2 Westfield 3 Centreville 4 W.T. Woodson 5 Manchester 6 Lake Braddock 7 South County 8 Ocean Lakes 9 Oscar Smith 10 James Madison 11 Freedom 12 Hayfield 13 James Robinson 14 Thomas Dale 15 Woodside
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