Based Capital @Based_Cap
Long term investor. Impartial financial analyst. My views only. Not investment advice. New account but FinTweet OG. God’s Country Joined September 2021-
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⚡️ Tom Lee: "That is how you get to $62,000 per #ethereum token."
The two S&P 500 declines of >20% in 2022 and 2025 were large enough to reset investor positions and sentiment - hence, a new bull 🐂 market started April 2025 - validated when we made a new high in June 2025 Great speaking with @WilfredFrost on @masterinvestor podcast 📢…
The two S&P 500 declines of >20% in 2022 and 2025 were large enough to reset investor positions and sentiment - hence, a new bull 🐂 market started April 2025 - validated when we made a new high in June 2025 Great speaking with @WilfredFrost on @masterinvestor podcast 📢…
$NVDA just announced their latest robotics chip module. They’re calling it the robotic brain. Blue chip robotics: $TSLA $NVDA $TER $ISRG $HON $ZBRA $ROK Moonshots: $OUST $RR $SYM $SERV $IRBT $MBOT $ARBE $PDYN I believe robotics is going to be the biggest AI trade of all.
@JaredKubin At a dinner tonight; one of the best PM’s I know spoke to the short case for software, summing up his view as “I view being long legacy software as equivalent to being short AI, & I think that’s a losing trade.” He thinks the perpetual growth rate for software goes flat/negative.
Do markets get any clearer? This is the 21 ema on the $spy, look how weak we were once we broke it in February and look how strong we’ve been since recovering it in April. That’s your barometer to press/remove risk, it’s really that easy.
Flipping the Yen Is Japan now finally allowing the bond market to blow out instead of the Yen? A THREAD 👇🔥
Jensen had a great quote the other day that was something like: “You’re not gonna lose your job to AI. You’re going to lose your job to someone who is using AI” Already seeing this in action, where the people who have adopted AI are 20-30% more efficient and effective
America is uniquely long equities
What a rally. Few red flags I will look for to lighten up exposure: -Bitcoin weakness -Euphoria in trash stocks -Poor earnings reactions -Bad news treated as bad news -Leaders start to lag or break key moving averages -Volume on down days > volume on up days Until then, higher.
Fund managers are the most underweight equities in years.
Here are some observations on the US China trade negotiations in Switzerland led by Scott Bessent: Dramatic escalation in the trade war started around April 2, and we are now 5 weeks into a period of extremely high (>100 pct) tariffs on the majority of goods coming from China to…
The complacency we see today does bear some resemblance to February 2020, but there's also a crucial difference. Covid was a destructive economic force that was outside of any person's control. The trade war, in contrast, is a destructive economic policy that is entirely under…
Every time SPY -5% Dalio comes out of his hovel to talk about 1,000 year cycles and currencies under Attila the Hun
Trimmed some longs that are squeezing higher today. Not saying we'll repeat 2022 this year, but today's action reminds me a lot of 2022 counter-trend moves that happened when markets got some slightly positive news about inflation or the Fed.
There is always this wonderful tension between veteran investors and emerging/new investors that haven't had all the risk scared out of them yet. I'm always reminded of this wonderful story by Stan Druckenmiller. 🔥
Very bullish report on GenAI from the Morgan Stanley tech research team (link below). In short, use cases around labor efficiency / cost savings are proliferating, leading to ROI at the application layer, which should ultimately support continued investment at the infrastructure…
Very bullish report on GenAI from the Morgan Stanley tech research team (link below). In short, use cases around labor efficiency / cost savings are proliferating, leading to ROI at the application layer, which should ultimately support continued investment at the infrastructure…
The Complete Playbook on The New 'Mag 7' Driving AI’s Next Phase The AI economy is entering a phase of accelerated stratification -- where the distinction between those who build raw computational power and those who weaponize intelligence at scale is becoming glaringly clear.…
JANUARY JOBS Residential Construction Payrolls ticked up to new cycle highs. Yet, ex-govt/healthcare/education economy only added 14k jobs. All-in-all, soft landing'ish data...
Pulling a page out of @mwebster1971 book Homework assignment Below are the top 25 winners and losers in the SP500 after just 11 days of trading. There are some incredible moves, up and down. Take a look at the charts of the winners, what do you notice? How many of the…
My sense of consensus views. -rates peaking and cuts underpriced -dollar will selloff sharply soon -gold basing for next move higher -stocks near term mild correction, bear market unlikely -sell rallies in oil The asymmetry is fading consensus where appropriate.
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