National Association of Home Builders projecting 1527k housing starts in 2022, 1448k in 2023, and 1545k in 2024. June real data was in line at 1553k. $IBP did well at 1200k starts, it will do well over the next 2.5 years. 11x multiple on 2024 is $135. You should’ve bought at $71.
$CROX
Trading at 7x Price/LFCF. Management guiding $1bn FCF in 2026. Multiple should revert to the 10x historical bottom at a minimum.
$1B 2026 * 10x = $10B market cap. Currently $3.5B.
24% IRR over next 5 years? Significant downside protection with current multiple.
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