Jared Sleeper @JaredSleeper
Partner at Avenir, where I invest in growth-stage startups and build Savoir, our analytics suite. Here to bring some analytical irreverence. Views my own. sleeperthoughts.com NYC Joined October 2011-
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One of the toughest pitches for a founder to nail is a business reinflection that isn't obvious from revenue growth. I'm interested in these sorts of pitches, so I get them a lot. Here's how to help someone build conviction in a turnaround: First, it is important to understand…
Figma's decline since its IPO isn't evidence in favor of traditional IPOs, as some say- quite the opposite! Lockups/low floats increase the risk of retail-driven price distortions. Public markets aren't perfect, but direct listings get to the clearing price faster. @bgurley
Consensus investing: Early => oligopoly, prices capped. Great firms earn brand rents. Public => prices kept in check by market forces/liquidity, "consensus" /= signal. Growth => prices uncapped/set by high bidders, FOMO reigns. Growth = the worst place to be consensus? 🤔
Consensus investing: Early => oligopoly, prices capped. Great firms earn brand rents. Public => prices kept in check by market forces/liquidity, "consensus" /= signal. Growth => prices uncapped/set by high bidders, FOMO reigns. Growth = the worst place to be consensus? 🤔
A win for survey data $SNOW
We raised $70M for this moment: Introducing Air AI. This is the END of file management as we know it. Air AI is the world's first AI Creative Manager. It scans, organizes, and manages all your creative assets autonomously. Think Dropbox for storage, Frame. io for…
This piece by @TheEthanDing is great. In domains where demand for intelligence is elastic, pricing models that worked for tools (i.e. flat per user pricing) could be fraught for a very long time. ethanding.substack.com/p/ai-subscript…
Happy/sad to report that GPT-5 still can't do basic cap table math.
The handwringing around GPT-4o disappearing shouldn't be so surprising. It is hardly unprecedented for people to seek emotional solace via technology. See: novels, TV shows, etc. Have you ever visited the subreddit of a popular TV show after its cancellation was announced?
Amazing how investors can forget the implications of investing at peak hype. Consider SaaS in 2020-2022. I took the @Wing_VC enterprise tech 30 from 2020, filtered down to the 23 companies that achieved unicorn valuations, tracked their peak valuation and compared to their…
I completely disagree with this. IMO it is a classic generalist take that comes out in periods of pervasive pessimism. The worst-case scenario for software is that it misses the boat on AI monetization. We're arguably trending there now, and it's not good for the sector. But…
I completely disagree with this. IMO it is a classic generalist take that comes out in periods of pervasive pessimism. The worst-case scenario for software is that it misses the boat on AI monetization. We're arguably trending there now, and it's not good for the sector. But…
Not sure how much this really matters outside of certain use-cases. OpenAI is almost definitely right to focus on usability and marketing. Once Google search was established as the verb, it didn't matter if Bing "tested better." The war was over as long as they were close.
The #1 issue I see scaled SaaS companies having as they try to benefit from AI is a framework mismatch. SaaS companies are used to being (and are perceived as) tools. Users bring context, data from other apps, motivation, etc. and use them to get work done. AI-native…
This is true except in use cases where demand for intelligence is relatively elastic (coding, adversarial problems like stock trading, etc.). In those use cases, still lots of app-layer value but access to models at reasonable prices is a big competitive edge.
This is true except in use cases where demand for intelligence is relatively elastic (coding, adversarial problems like stock trading, etc.). In those use cases, still lots of app-layer value but access to models at reasonable prices is a big competitive edge.
People have asked about our culture and recent employee communications. Cognition has an extreme performance culture, and we’re upfront about this in hiring so there are no surprises later. We routinely are at the office through the weekend and do some of our best work late into…
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