Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil
I write about genetics, 'metrics, and demographics. Read my long-form writing at https://t.co/8hgA4nNS2A. cremieux.xyz/subscribe Earth Joined March 2023-
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A while ago I posted a graph showing the decomposed TFR of the Netherlands. Here is Mexico for a contrast. Even though child mortality declined throughout the 20th century, the TFR stayed high until the early 1970s. Thus Mexico went through a short phase of very big families.
A while ago I posted a graph showing the decomposed TFR of the Netherlands. Here is Mexico for a contrast. Even though child mortality declined throughout the 20th century, the TFR stayed high until the early 1970s. Thus Mexico went through a short phase of very big families. https://t.co/ackhWucOY8
Fund our upcoming #ReproTech cohort if you care! We need better technologies to allow more options for both young and older women. Only more scientific research looking specifically at this will help this paradigm. 💁♀️
Fund our upcoming #ReproTech cohort if you care! We need better technologies to allow more options for both young and older women. Only more scientific research looking specifically at this will help this paradigm. 💁♀️
This paper doesn't support its conclusions. If you want to know why, check out my latest article! cremieux.xyz/p/why-do-we-ke…
This paper doesn't support its conclusions. If you want to know why, check out my latest article! cremieux.xyz/p/why-do-we-ke… https://t.co/XOX4h1clo6
You've probably heard about Americans fleeing blue states like CA for FL and TX. But this isn't new. I've dived into 40 years of GDP and population data and show it's been happening for generations. Here's how we know economic freedom is better.🧵 richardhanania.com/p/forty-years-…
I have an earlier thread on this: x.com/cremieuxrecuei… And I have an earlier post on the beginning of the transition in Britain: cremieux.xyz/p/the-fruits-o… I recommend reading both.
I have an earlier thread on this: x.com/cremieuxrecuei… And I have an earlier post on the beginning of the transition in Britain: cremieux.xyz/p/the-fruits-o… I recommend reading both.
If you want to explain fertility through very modern conditions (e.g., "the '60s", "the '70s", "Marxism", etc.), you won't have any luck. The fertility transition began in France, long ago.
Americans seem to think that scientists are *not* transparent about COIs and *don't* admit mistakes and yet sort of do a good job🤪 pewresearch.org/science/2019/0…
Last year, a study came out showing a plateau in the earnings-IQ relationship in Sweden. I failed to replicate that finding with American data and it has now failed to replicate in both Norwegian and Finnish data. The relationship is actually steeper for high earners!
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142K Followers 4K Following Owns $200MM of apartment buildings (w investors). Manages 1,000 apartments. Co-founder: @reconvenela & @reseedpartners. Join my mailing list here ⬇️@cremieuxrecueil Isn’t this just true of every psychometric measure of anything with a factor structure beneath it?
Why are low birthrates a problem? Why is population decline a bad thing? To this writer, it seems obvious that population growth or at least population maintenance is extraordinarily crucial for the health of our civilization, and for the progress which we have come to expect.…
It is one of those things that you have to accept about the world that even the most aggressively stupid people think they’re smarter than you
If this doesn’t put it in perspective for you, nothing will.
if you're a "long term thinker" this is the only thing you should be thinking about
Only about a third of the world even meets replacement rate fertility. This is the biggest problem of our time.
Have healthy babies 🚀🍼
Only about a third of the world even meets replacement rate fertility. This is the biggest problem of our time.
The more effective an employee selection mechanism is, the more people are going to hate it.
"Egyptian Genome Project aims to sequence genomic variants of 100,000 apparently healthy Egyptian adults, with around 8,000 individuals suspected to have a genetic disease, as well as 200 ancient Egyptian mummies." 🔥 Elmonem et al. Nat Gen nature.com/articles/s4158…
baiting graphical models people while they're scarfing down beignets
"Causal inference is a trivial problem if you know the DAG. Research design is outdated." season's greetings!
obligatory x.com/apoorva__lal/s…
"Causal inference is a trivial problem if you know the DAG. Research design is outdated." season's greetings!
Great GWAS paper diving deep into the contributions of germline variants to kidney cancer in 29k cases and >800k controls. I particularly love the discovery of a VHL 3' UTR variant, seen in ~10% of African and ~0.01% of European ancestries, that increase the risk of clear cell…
“Why homicide rose, why it fell, and why it will rise again.” Essay from @CharlesFLehman that delivers on exactly what it promises, a must-read thecausalfallacy.com/p/anatomy-of-a…
From 2010-2014, increases in turnout greatly benefited Democrats. But the education flip changed that. In 2016, 2018, & 2020, Democrats saw much smaller gains as simulated turnout increased, but also a large advantage when voter turnout is extremely low journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…
I'm going with the "GPT2" is not the same as "GPT-2" theories, #Strauss.
A while ago I posted a graph showing the decomposed TFR of the Netherlands. Here is Mexico for a contrast. Even though child mortality declined throughout the 20th century, the TFR stayed high until the early 1970s. Thus Mexico went through a short phase of very big families.
The TFR of the past often overstates how big families really were, because a significant share of kids died in infancy. In the Netherlands, the number of surviving children per woman constantly hovered around 3 from 1840 until the 1960s, while the TFR declined from 5 to 3.