Birth Gauge @BirthGauge
Tracking the global fertility decline Joined September 2013-
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@liridonnuli88 @BirthGauge Even these 3 months are not completed, i can give you some numbers but you shouldn't put much weight on them. Total: 1.614 White: 1.525 Black: 1.479 Hispanic: 1.977 Asian: 1.339
Switzerland continues to lead the ranks of life expectancy in the Western World, with Spain and Italy following closely.
Switzerland continues to lead the ranks of life expectancy in the Western World, with Spain and Italy following closely.
EU life expectancy is back to its pre-Covid trajectory. Eastern countries are improving the most, but they still have the lowest life expectancy.
EU life expectancy is back to its pre-Covid trajectory. Eastern countries are improving the most, but they still have the lowest life expectancy. https://t.co/kRxtfUpWQi
We can add this to the "secular modern catechism." More than 2 kids are a "sin" and it gets worse the more you exceed 2. Has nothing to do with ability to provide, etc. It's neo-morality.
Germany 2023 full year birth figures have been published: There were 693,019 births down 6.2% from 738,819 in 2022, after 795,492 in 2021. Tfr hasn't been published yet but can be estimated at ~1.36. The number of births declined 5.9% in former West Germany and 9.2% in the East.
Malaysia is super fascinating this way. Malaysia is in many ways Asia's most immigration oriented society. The society was shaped by massive Indian and Chinese immigration to it in the 19th and 20th century. Its little known though that it still gets huge migration inflows, now…
Malaysia is super fascinating this way. Malaysia is in many ways Asia's most immigration oriented society. The society was shaped by massive Indian and Chinese immigration to it in the 19th and 20th century. Its little known though that it still gets huge migration inflows, now… https://t.co/ylY9uyBKoM
It is interesting how quickly demographics can change. Few years ago no one would believe that 🇧🇬 and 🇷🇸 will have higher TFR than 🇹🇷 in 2023. Also ratio of birth between 🇬🇷 and 🇷🇸+RS was 1.49 in 2008 and 1.03 in last year (if we add 🇲🇪 to the last it changed from 1.36 to 0.94)
Americans live shorter lives than the people in other rich nations. For American men, about 90% of this shortfall is explained by a handful of observable factors. For American women, two-thirds can be explained by the same factors. But I want to point out treatable cancers🧵
People who think the answer is a progressive welfare state have to explain Norway (TFR 1.5) People who think the answer is conservative social policy have to explain Korea (TFR 0.8)
People who think the answer is a progressive welfare state have to explain Norway (TFR 1.5) People who think the answer is conservative social policy have to explain Korea (TFR 0.8)
There is a huge problem with the political polarization of fertility in the United States+other western countries. TFR has plummeted so far recently in Poland, the UK, Spain & many other countries due at least in part due to a cultural & political disconnect.
A while ago I posted a graph showing the decomposed TFR of the Netherlands. Here is Mexico for a contrast. Even though child mortality declined throughout the 20th century, the TFR stayed high until the early 1970s. Thus Mexico went through a short phase of very big families.
A while ago I posted a graph showing the decomposed TFR of the Netherlands. Here is Mexico for a contrast. Even though child mortality declined throughout the 20th century, the TFR stayed high until the early 1970s. Thus Mexico went through a short phase of very big families. https://t.co/ackhWucOY8
@BirthGauge Faroese Islands Total fertility rate 2023: 1.86 2022: 2.07 In 2016 it was 2.64 First time, below the faroese islands replacement rate Flexible work-life balance, rural and christian conservative culture could not save them, from the post covid baby bust local.fo/faroe-islands-…
EU births outside marriage
EU births outside marriage https://t.co/NtAsaIHqv3
The population aged 0-14 in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia peaked in the late 1970s. In a few years, it will be back to 1950 levels. Eventually by 2100, it will probably be around a third of the 1970s peak.
Where in France are large families (3+ kids) most common? Source: buff.ly/3WcOHZ6
Births being out for 2023 Q1, it's time to take a look at the current birth count in the "Laestadian municipalities" I keep an eye on. As usual, those are small towns so variance can be really high (look at Merijärvi for example). Anyway, the poster boy Larsmo is starting well.
Fertility intentions suggest China's fertility may have a lot further to fall. Given China's TFR was just 1.02 in 2023, this seems surprising, but South Korea shows there is no natural floor to fertility. This will devastate both 🇨🇳 and the global economy. 🧵, please share!
Interesting article about a Laestadian family that had 20! kids. Even more interestingly, only 2 kids remained in the Laestadian faith. Just an example, but the attrition rate is very high in their community. kodinkuvalehti.fi/artikkeli/lue/…
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9K Followers 169 Following Ideas for reversing the collapse in global fertility, the greatest challenge of our age. Humanity is precious. HT to Lyman Stone and other great demographers.@ratavulIurE @EurocentricTuga @liridonnuli88 @BirthGauge Don’t they go to Europe for refugee status? Perhaps in Europe they are still included in the population? In Germany, for example, migrants receive very good benefits and I think that there is no point in being an illegal migrant, it is better to be an officially enrolled refugee
@EurocentricTuga @BirthGauge Blacks being so low is insane, I mean this will mark first time in entire US history from colonization up to this day that black fertility is lower than whites, ofc provided that this holds up. Hispanics are going in opposite direction, they are almost at replacement rate level.
@ratavulIurE @liridonnuli88 @BirthGauge The hispanic fertility is inflated by that yes. I don't know how much their population actually grew so i just used the same growth the cdc used to calculate their fertility for 2023
@MoreBirths @bryan_caplan @mattyglesias Housing for families does not need to serve the entire family life cycle Apartment towers are a good form for very young kids (under school age) Frankly the biggest practical inhibitor to kids long term is not yard vs apartment tower … it’s schools
@liridonnuli88 @BirthGauge Even these 3 months are not completed, i can give you some numbers but you shouldn't put much weight on them. Total: 1.614 White: 1.525 Black: 1.479 Hispanic: 1.977 Asian: 1.339
@BirthGauge US birth data as of April 30th (preliminary):
Vermont is the least supportive of Israel in the U.S., and its representatives in Congress often criticize Israel harshly. However, Israel has an edge over Vermont. It seems that more American women give birth in Israel than in Vermont each year.
The migration of American Jews to Israel is largely Orthodox. Israeli women with American-born mothers have a TFR of over 4 children. Each year, they account for about 5,000 births, a total that parallels the annual birth figures of countries like Malta, Iceland, or Montenegro.
I think sometimes we forget that most Americans live in fairly large cities. 57% of Americans live in a metro area of 1M people or more (there are 56 in total). Lots of these are suburbanites, but we're a far cry from the rural country Jefferson envisioned (and that's good).
@BirthGauge Italy Feb 2024: 28 457 (-1,16% but -4,57% if corrected for leap year) Jan-Feb 2024: 60 318 (-2,83%, corrected is -4.45%)
@BirthGauge Armenia jan-march -7.9% 2024 - 8059 2023 - 8756 armstat.am/file/doc/99547…
Reminder that Mouse Utopia is _also_ bullshit and not something you need to spend time worrying about. gwern.net/mouse-utopia
Hectoring the childless is useless and rude. They have always been a normal part of society. But a family set up to have 2 kids can usually have 3 or 4 instead. The 2 child "norm" is really the issue.
Interesting It's not that the number of TFR 0s has increased, so much. It's that those with families are having less children.
My modest proposal for reforming local government in England: Abolish the mayoralties and half-baked devolution "deals" and replace them with a uniform system of Regions, each having its own Regional Assembly and Government with powers similar to French Regions.
Probably the biggest problem for American industry—and one that just doesn't get talked about enough—is the complete and total lack of productivity growth over the last 15+ years
@BirthGauge South Korea: 2024 (2023) Mar: 19036 (21911) -13.1% Apr: 20087 (18287) +9.8% YTD: 79880 (82569) -3.2% Source: jumin.mois.go.kr/# Seems like different numbers than your source, but the discrepancy is small (47 births for Jan-Feb)
If top end medicine increased lifespan *on aggregate*, we'd expect the top income percentiles in US to have higher life expectancy than in UK. That's because rich Americans have access to more "latest stuff" and spend more on healthcare than richest Brits. But it doesn't seem to…
@bekirivkk1 @FB1907070 @BirthGauge Italy and Greece have a lot of immigrants as well, about equal to the Netherlands, but unlike in the netherlands they're less european, indian or east asian, so more high fertility immigrants.
Housing density is a factor, but not the only one which causes low birth rates. Culture, education and economics are also critical factors which impact fertility rates. Low fertility is present across all kinds of places, including low density suburbs/rural settlements.
Did you think fertility couldn't get any lower than South Korea's seemingly impossible 0.72 births per woman in 2023? Macau is trending toward 0.49 births per woman in 2024 🤯. Lesson #1, don't build like Macau if you want your country to have a future. @bryan_caplan
@MichaelAArouet Cost of labor and upkeep can be high in depopulated locations. Italy, for example, gave away homes for 1 euro if they were renovated. Cost of renovation can end up nearly as expensive as a new home. Burglary is also an issue in some countryside regions.