Bespoke Weather @Bespoke_Weather
Bespoke Weather Services - The premier blended weather and natural gas analytics service custom-designed for gas investors, traders, and brokers. bespokeweather.com Houston, TX Joined May 2015-
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Another weekend with much warmer forecast changes has sent #natgas prices plunging yet again. We are solidly on pace for the 2nd warmest December on record in the U.S, behind only December 2015. More analysis at: bespokeweather.com/home $UNG $KOLD $BOIL
Colder changes did not materialize over the weekend, as the pattern beyond the next few days simply oscillates around normal demand levels, keeping us on pace for a rather normal November as a whole. More at: bespokeweather.com/home #natgas #weather $UNG
NAT GAS EIA DATA HIT: 63 bcf net implied flow for the week ending October 29th vs. BWS estimate of 65 bcf and market expectations from 58 to 70 bcf. This compares to 5-year average of 38 bcf. #natgas $UNG $BOIL $KOLD
NAT GAS EIA DATA HIT: 87 bcf net implied flow for the week ending October 22nd vs. BWS estimate of 85 bcf and market expectations from 80 to 92 bcf. This compares to 5-year average of 62 bcf. #natgas $UNG $BOIL $KOLD
#Weather is the story in the #natgas market this morning, with colder forecast changes, especially in the ECMWF EPS modeling, though even the latest GEFS maintains enough blocking to support colder risks. Prices are 🚀🚀🚀 More at: bespokeweather.com/home $UNG $BOIL $KOLD
NAT GAS EIA DATA HIT: 92 bcf net implied flow for the week ending October 15th vs. BWS estimate of 90 bcf and market expectations from 82 to 96 bcf. This compares to 5-year average of 69 bcf. #natgas $UNG $BOIL $KOLD
Projected #weather demand remains generally low, and climate models, such as the CFS (shown here) paint a warm, bearish picture for November. Is it on the right track? We discuss the forecast and risks: bespokeweather.com/home #natgas $UNG
We are looking for a build of 90 bcf in today's #natgas EIA storage report, well larger than the 5-year average of 69 bcf, due to low overall demand and higher wind. If wrong, risk is skewed toward a lower build, in our view. bespokeweather.com/home #weather $UNG
While we have had some #weather model volatility recently, the theme of generally low demand has not wavered, which is important to keep in mind. Get more analysis of weather and fundamentals with a free trial at: bespokeweather.com/home #natgas $UNG
NAT GAS EIA DATA MISS: 81 bcf net implied flow for the week ending October 8th vs. BWS estimate of 90 bcf and market expectations from 82 to 96 bcf. This compares to 5-year average of 79 bcf. #natgas $UNG $BOIL $KOLD
For today's EIA #natgas storage report, we are looking for a build of 90 bcf, which would reflect tighter supply / demand balances vs the last couple of numbers, mostly thanks to very low wind. This compares to the 5-year average build of 79 bcf. bespokeweather.com/home $UNG
Overnight #weather models continued the cooler shift, helping #natgas prices advance higher this morning, though the pattern remains far from being cold. bespokeweather.com/home $UNG $KOLD $BOIL
12z models, while not *cold*, moved notably cooler in the medium range, providing a lift to #natgas prices from midday on. Don't miss a beat this season where weather is concerned. Give our services a test drive with a FREE trial at: bespokeweather.com/home #weather $UNG
Chilly #weather over in Europe gives way to much warmer conditions heading into next week. Get these maps daily with a Trader Level subscription at: bespokeweather.com/home #natgas $UNG
Total #natgas supply has fallen back under last year's levels, thanks to this week's production decline along with a bump back higher in LNG exports. This is helping to negate any bearish #weather influences. More analysis at: bespokeweather.com/home $UNG
With the very warm start to the month, and a forecast for general continued warmth, we are projecting this month to feature the lowest demand (measured by GWDDs) of any October in our historical dataset (back to 1980). bespokeweather.com/home #natgas #weather $UNG
NAT GAS EIA DATA MISS: 118 bcf net implied flow for the week ending October 1st vs. BWS estimate of 106 bcf and market expectations from 100 to 118 bcf. This compares to 5-year average of 81 bcf. #natgas $UNG $BOIL $KOLD
NAT GAS EIA DATA HIT: 88 bcf net implied flow for the week ending September 24th vs. BWS estimate of 85 bcf and market expectations from 80 to 93 bcf. This compares to 5-year average of 72 bcf. #natgas $UNG $BOIL $KOLD
While it is a little early for #weather to be a huge driver of #natgas prices, it is difficult to get a lower demand pattern. Even assuming 5-year normal beyond day 15, October GWDDs would be the 3rd lowest in our dataset. More analysis at: bespokeweather.com/home $UNG
NAT GAS EIA DATA HIT: 76 bcf net implied flow for the week ending September 17th vs. BWS estimate of 75 bcf and market expectations from 66 to 80 bcf. This compares to 5-year average of 74 bcf. #natgas $UNG $BOIL $KOLD
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Fwiw I follow these guys to understand Weather and incorporate into a #natgas trading plan
Colder changes did not materialize over the weekend, as the pattern beyond the next few days simply oscillates around normal demand levels, keeping us on pace for a rather normal November as a whole. More at: bespokeweather.com/home #natgas #weather $UNG
Great energy market insights from my mentor, friend @patrickkatie911 blog.powercosts.com/2021/10/21/wha… "The clear evidence of this transformation will be written in our energy bills for the next decade, perhaps longer." $XLE $UNG #natgas @enelyst_ @Bespoke_Weather @BrynneKKelly @chigrl
Ty @Bespoke_Weather for this cool look at changes in the #natgas forward curve. $UNG
@Bespoke_Weather Absolutely...core of the ridge northern Plains, Dallas gets a taste finally.
@EnjetMo Is it just about price? 50 hdd’s lower at $2.45 with 1 sigma warm anomalies for days 16-20. At $2.95 didn’t the market have those 50 HDD’s back and a trough in the East on for days 16-20? I agree principally but reality gets in the way of a good joke, no?
The writing was on the wall Sunday, with weekend data pointing to the risk of a large selloff in the natural gas market. Read more in this post from @Bespoke_Weather! tradersinsight.news/traders-insigh…
The supply/demand balance was on full display in last week’s EIA storage report. Read more in this @Bespoke_Weather post! tradersinsight.news/traders-insigh…
Natural gas prices have moved lower so far this week, likely the result of cooler changes in the weather forecast over the weekend. Read more in this @Bespoke_Weather Services post! tradersinsight.news/traders-insigh…
Extreme heat has largely avoided areas that are most crucial for natural gas consumption, but demand from weather still runs above normal. Read more in this post from @Bespoke_Weather weather Bespoke Weather Services! tradersinsight.news/traders-insigh…
With less gas being taken into LNG facilities, and a real risk that declines continue thanks to very low natural gas prices globally, there is increased concern. Read more in this post from @Bespoke_Weather! tradersinsight.news/traders-insigh…
The economic shutdowns due to the COVID-19 virus led to a huge hit on the demand side of the equation in the natural gas market. Read more in this post from @Bespoke_Weather! tradersinsight.news/traders-insigh…
@Bespoke_Weather CDDs start to arrive, though of course the key is how they relate to normal
@Bespoke_Weather Summer 2024 and beyond are at all-time lows too. Wild forward curve! fun stuff
@Bespoke_Weather and some gains in the last 48 hours ..off the low for HDDs, as they say :)
@ysupenguins87 @enelyst_ Another look at the strong wind gen from @Bespoke_Weather @enelyst_ #natgas $UNG bespokeweather.com/blog
@MikeZaccardi @PipelineFlows @CelsiusEnergyFM @Bespoke_Weather @Ronh999 @NatGasWeather @BrynneKKelly @bluegoldr @Maxar_Weather @aeberman12 Thanks @MikeZaccardi for the shout out. We are doing our best to provide a new communication platform for energy traders We invite all data and research vendors to out platform to start a private channel. #natgas #OOTT
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