Black Bird Group @Black_BirdGroup
OSINT group based in Finland. Currently focused on following and analyzing the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Finland Joined August 2022-
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27APR24 Avdiivka sector ORBAT and operational thread. Over the past week RuAF has achieved series of local successes on Avdiivka sector. These began with sudden and unexpected penetration into village of Ocheretyne on 22APR24. 1/20
The Russians apparently threw the 27th MRD into the fray in the north of Avdiivka and gained ground in Ocheretyne. The developing situation might motivate the Russians to throw mechanized reserves into the fray. This might be the kick-off for the Russian spring offensive.
Our group is actively tracking both 🇷🇺 & 🇺🇦 units. As you can see from this map, the Russians are putting heavy pressure against limited Ukrainian forces. Check this thread for our comprehensive Chasiv Yar analysis.
Our group is actively tracking both 🇷🇺 & 🇺🇦 units. As you can see from this map, the Russians are putting heavy pressure against limited Ukrainian forces. Check this thread for our comprehensive Chasiv Yar analysis.
One of the most significant current battles in Ukraine is taking place in the small city of Chasiv Yar. In this thread, I will analyze the current situation, defensive preparations, terrain, participating units, various scenarios and future developments. 1/
War in Gaza - Sitrep by our @TuukkaFalt
War in Gaza - Sitrep by our @TuukkaFalt
Red Sea SITREP
Two years of Russian invasion of Ukraine. This is an overview thread on the situation at the front and deployment of UkrAF and RuAF forces as of 24th FEB 2024. Attached is high resolution image of our Order of Battle tracking map. Zoom in for more detail. 1/
Dark months ahead for Ukraine. The third year of the Russian full-scale invasion begins, and Ukraine is facing multiple difficulties. There's no room for optimism, as many problems can’t be solved in the coming months. In this thread: Issues, threats and the future. 1/
I've waited over the weekend for more information to make hard statements about the Avdiivka withdrawal. By now it's safe to say that the worst case scenario of encirclement was avoided. Ukraine clearly managed to pull its formations out of the city bit by bit during the nights.
Situation in Khan Yunis. It is possible that the entire "pocket" is under IDF control by now, however we cannot confirm it at this time. Interestingly there is confirmed information of non-Hamas forces involved in the fighting around this area.
A short thread on Kupiansk sector and the disposition of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (1GTA). Between 19-28JAN24 Russian forces from the 1GTA managed to capture the villages of Krokhmal'ne and Tabaivka. 1/
Approximate situation in Western Khan Yunis. Daily updated interactive situation map by @Black_BirdGroup here: scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Isra…
It has been tough couple of weeks. General situation on the frontline seems to be deteriorating around Avdiivka and northern Luhansk. Velyka Novosilka sector been activating and Novomykhailivka not faring particularly well either. 1/
War in Gaza - update and short take into methods and tools by our @TuukkaFalt
War in Gaza - update and short take into methods and tools by our @TuukkaFalt
The large aerial bomb craters may act as an indicator of the width of the permanent Ukrainian presence in the village. They are found along a distance of about 2400 metres, mostly near the first row of houses. This also correlates with recent geolocated material from the area. 5/
Bonus 💫 Some additional images for geolocators! Your work is priceless, and as I'm using geolocations as a part of my analysis, I want to give something back.
A comprehensive Krynky assessment from our team member @emilkastehelmi with some interesting, very high resolution satellite images! Check it out.
A comprehensive Krynky assessment from our team member @emilkastehelmi with some interesting, very high resolution satellite images! Check it out.
John Alulis @JWAlulis
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Kiyezi 🇨🇳 @Kiyezi_
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Node 🇬🇧 @tryawait
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Isle @island_wrangel
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donaldcapazzo @donaldcapazzo
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Tuukka Fält @TuukkaFalt
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Ukraine Control Map @UAControlMap
31K Followers 192 Following Ukraine Control Map at https://t.co/ZHLJru1GL0 showing geolocations, frontlines, and unit positions during the war. DM for contact / media
GeoConfirmed @GeoConfirmed
184K Followers 200 Following Map and Investigations = https://t.co/fKEp7FqbhI Managed by volunteers. Data shared with @Cen4InfoRes and @Bellingcat You can help us: https://t.co/9JWTu6EMRr
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Emil Kastehelmi @emilkastehelmi
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@Black_BirdGroup @Pouletvolant3 @Majakovsk73 Same for northern regions. There are always clouds there and that's very long...
@Black_BirdGroup @Pouletvolant3 @Majakovsk73 Very good job ! You still need to find some near Borova👀 but then you will have nearly everything !
@Pouletvolant3 @clement_molin @Black_BirdGroup Totally Agree!
@Majakovsk73 @clement_molin With @clement_molin and the Finnish group @Black_BirdGroup, there is really high quality work on the fortifications 👍
27APR24 Avdiivka sector ORBAT and operational thread. Over the past week RuAF has achieved series of local successes on Avdiivka sector. These began with sudden and unexpected penetration into village of Ocheretyne on 22APR24. 1/20
The Russians apparently threw the 27th MRD into the fray in the north of Avdiivka and gained ground in Ocheretyne. The developing situation might motivate the Russians to throw mechanized reserves into the fray. This might be the kick-off for the Russian spring offensive.
Our team at @Black_BirdGroup continues to map and analyse the war, as we’ve already done for almost 800 days. I’ve been a bit busy lately so I haven’t been posting as much, but our interactive map is of course updated almost daily. 19/19 scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…
If Ukraine manages to hold Chasiv Yar, it will make the Russian political goals significantly more difficult. There aren’t any shortcuts towards the “belt of cities” between Kostiantynivka and Kramatorsk, so a failed offensive here means a more difficult grind somewhere else. 18/
It took the Russians almost a year to advance about 5-6 kilometres from Bakhmut to the eastern parts of Chasiv Yar. However, Ukraine is in a worse situation than before, and multiple scenarios are possible. If Russia wants to capture large areas in Donetsk, the time is now. 17/
Still, actual breakthroughs are rare and the Ukrainians are still able to fight a defensive battle. Even if the Russians manage to eventually push through Chasiv Yar, it doesn’t mean they will automatically gain a significant strategic victory in Donetsk. 16/
However, many Ukrainian brigades are suffering from a shortage of men, which may explain the current positioning on a relatively short front. There’s no indication that the Russians would be experiencing the same issue, at least not in the same magnitude. 15/
Ukrainian units in the Chasiv Yar direction: Elements of 42th, 56th, 67th, 92nd and 93rd Mechanized brigades 112th Territorial Defence brigade Possibly 5th Assault brigade as a reserve force Possibly elements of other units too, like the 17th Tank Brigade and 114th TDF. 14/
The Sever-V brigade is likely in the area. The "Terek" Cossack brigade may also be present. The actual size of these units is unclear. It’s important to note that when I’m saying “elements” of certain units, it means the whole unit isn’t necessarily fighting there. 13/
Russians likely have elements of the following units in Chasiv Yar: 98th Guards Airborne Division 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade 4th, 85th and 200th Motorized rifle brigades Some additional regiments from other units and also territorial/reserve regiments 12/
Because of the recent heavy losses elsewhere, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Russia wanted to switch to more infantry-based action in Chasiv Yar, as the terrain and Ukrainian artillery ammo shortages would also enable it. Next, let's see which units are fighting in the area. 11/
It’s possible the battle of Chasiv Yar won’t consume Russian vehicles as severely as the operations in other directions, like in Terny, Novomykhailivka or the fields west of Avdiivka. Available data has not shown as extreme equipment losses in this direction. 10/
Holding these dense and covered areas requires more troops. AFU must have reserves ready, so that any possible gaps can be quickly filled. This can be difficult for the Ukrainian brigades, which are not fighting in full strength. Russia has plenty of expendable manpower. 9/
Because of these aforementioned reasons, keeping the Kanal can be tricky. The Russians can try to cut the supply routes by infiltrating the Ukrainian defences from the north, and the terrain makes heavier counterattacks supported by armored vehicles difficult. 8/
This means the Russians will persistently try to attrit the defender by throwing infantry detachments in these “corridors”, in order to find exploitable cracks, while also pressuring Ukrainians elsewhere in the city. If success is achieved, it will also be reinforced. 7/
The forests and other covered areas provide shelter for the defenders, but they also come with some difficulties. It allows the Russians to conduct infantry attacks with their so-called infiltration tactics. Such actions have been observed in similar terrain before. 6/
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