Calling it here, The next cycle will be in 2.5 years. Why? The 2024 Bitcoin halving already happened. Historically, BTC peaks 12-18 months later—which would suggest late 2025 to early 2026. But crypto adoption is much faster now. There are more buyers, more liquidity, and fewer weak hands than ever. That means accumulation starts way earlier, and the next parabolic move kicks off sooner than the old 4-year model suggests. There Are More People in Crypto Than Ever Before This isn’t 2017 or 2021. Crypto has millions more active users now. The “wait for the halving” crowd is outdated, most people already know the cycle exists and front-run it. New money isn't waiting 4 years, it’s coming in earlier, which shifts the entire market cycle forward. Retail Will Be Back Sooner Than Expected The old cycle was slow because people had to discover crypto, get comfortable, and then FOMO in late. Now? Everyone knows what crypto is. They saw it go parabolic in 2021, crash, and come back again. The moment momentum starts, they ape in fast, no waiting for a traditional “euphoria phase.” The Way People Buy Crypto Has Changed 2017: Buy on sketchy exchanges, struggle with wallets. 2021: Coinbase & other CEXs make it easier. 2025: Buying crypto is frictionless, Moon Pay, Venmo, and Solana’s fast txs make it seamless. The easier it is to buy, the faster retail jumps in, which accelerates the cycle. Institutions Are Playing the Long Game Now The Bitcoin ETF changed everything. In previous cycles, institutions came late, now they’re here early and constantly buying. Big players don’t care about 4-year cycles. They accumulate on dips and slowly push prices up instead of waiting for a specific event. AI, Real-World Assets, and Memecoins Are Fueling Faster Adoption The AI boom is making people more comfortable with digital assets. RWA (Real-World Asset) tokenization is bringing in a wave of new capital. Memecoins? They kick-start speculation early and onboard millions who wouldn’t normally touch crypto. All of this creates demand sooner, pushing the cycle forward. The Market Will Front-Run Itself If you knew BTC is going well over $100K+ in 2026, why wait? People are buying way earlier than before. With so many pre-halving buyers, the “real” bull run starts sooner than the models predict. The old pattern is broken, not because the fundamentals changed, but because human behavior has. Forget waiting 4 years. The next true crypto mania will peak in 2.5 years. If you’re waiting for 2028, you’ll be too late. The game has changed, adapt or lose.
