CloudBreak @CloudBreak2
South Australia & Victoria's premier grain broking & advisory service: Taking the puzzle out of Grain Marketing! cloudbreak.com.au South Australia, Australia Joined November 2013-
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Dec wheat ↓2.5USc/bu with late rains in US eased weather concerns. AUD ↓0.24c as USD firms, with markets digest mixed labour data. Caution ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls is giving USD support. Likely softer hiring & rising layoffs increase chance of US Fed rate cut at next meeting.
Dec wheat ↓6.25USc/bu as US corn conditions remain strongest for late-Aug rating since 2013 at 69% Gd/Ex. US corn production continue to weigh on US corn & wheat futures. AUD ↑0.23c after strong AUS GDP data for June quarter & weaker USD amid fading US labour market conditions.
Dec wheat ↓6.0USc/bu. ABARES expect 25/26 AUS wheat production at 33.8MMT, ↓1% y/y. AUD ↓0.36c as USD rebounds post-Labor Day. Traders rotating back into safe-haven USD amid uncertainty from political pressure on the feds and higher PMI data month/month.
Dec wheat ↑5.25USc/bu with prices trading in a short-term sideways band with support circa 525USc/bu and resistance 535USc/bu. AUD ↑0.13c with PCE report show core inflation climbing 2.9% y/y in June. US Inflation below Fed’s 2% target, traders see reduced chance for rate cuts.
Dec wheat ↑4.75USc/bu with trade positioning for the end of month and US long weekend. Support from Canada wheat production forecast, ↓1% vs previous. AUD ↑0.21c, from broad USD weakness, as traders grow more confident that Fed Reserve will cut rates at its meeting in Sept.
Dec wheat ↓7.5USc/bu as analysts expect Canada wheat production to range 34.2 - 37.2MMT later today. AUD ↑0.12c after the monthly CPI that came in above expected, reducing expectations of immediate rate cut in AUS. Weaker USD as freedom of the US Fed reserve remains at risk.
Our annual #Vic #workshops kick off next week. We would like to welcome Vic growers to join the workshops. Bookings are essential, so please contact the #CloudBreak office if you haven’t already done so. We look forward to seeing you there!
Dec wheat ↑2.00USc/bu testing short-term resistance near 535USc/bu. US winter wheat is 98% harvested, some of new crop supply pressures ease. Markets are cautious of spill-over pressure from a record-large US corn crop. AUD ↑0.13c, as markets position for AUS CPI update today.
Dec wheat ↑2.5USc/bu after solid US export data for the week ending 21/08, ↑71% from same time last year. AUD ↓0.04c as USD stabilises after Friday’s sell-off. Markets focus on today’s RBA meeting minutes, providing clarity on the bank’s easing bias towards further rate cuts.
Dec wheat ↓2.5USc/bu after promising weather forecasts for AUS and Argentina is expected to maintain adequate global wheat supplies. AUD ↑0.64c on broad USD weakness from selling pressure after dovish remarks from the US Fed Chair reinforced expectations of rate cuts.
Dec wheat ↑1.25USc/bu with spillover strength from other grains amid demand optimism. AUD ↓0.11c as markets position ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech and US PMI data later today, where both may lead to tighter US financial policy and pressure for risk-on currencies like AUD.
Dec wheat ↑7.0USc/bu with expectations of US wheat sales of 0.5-0.8MMT for the week. AUD ↓0.2c, despite softer USD. Traders cautious ahead of AUS PMI data, as weaker numbers likely to add weight on AUD. USD eased on renewed uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Dec wheat ↓3.75USc/bu, making a new contract low of 519.5USc/bu and continues in a med-term downtrend. EU soft wheat exports est. 1.8MMT to 17 Aug, below half the same time last yr. AUD ↓0.39c from USD strength as S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed its AA+ rating for US Gov debt.
Dec wheat ↓2.0USc/bu with US winter wheat harvest at 94% complete, 1pp below 5-yr av. AUD ↓0.2c from strong USD as markets remain cautious ahead of the summit between EU leaders and Trump. Uncertain geopolitics sees investors shift away from risk-sensitive currencies like AUD.
Dec wheat ↑2.5USc/bu with Export Sales data showing US wheat exports for the year at 11MMT, 46% of USDA forecast. AUD ↑0.14c as USD eases from last week’s rally driven by stronger US PPI data. AUD upside remains capped as markets price in likely RBA rate cuts before year-end.
CloudBreak would like to welcome Vic growers to our upcoming workshops. Bookings are essential, so if you haven't already done so, please contact the CloudBreak office. We look forward to seeing you there! @BCG_Birchip
Dec wheat ↓3.75USc/bu. Low US wheat prices has attracted buyers as sales tally 723kMT, higher end of trade est. AUD ↓0.47c after US PPI y/y data came in at 3.3%, ↑0.9% on last month. Stronger print signals may accelerate inflation, easing chances of US Feds cutting rates.
Dec wheat ↑2.25USc/bu. EU wheat prices are low relative to corn, attracting buying from livestock feeders. AUD ↑0.17c as USD selling continues with US Feds expected to cut interest rates through to the end of the year. US 10-year T-note yields fell 0.05% adding weight to USD.
Dec wheat ↓9.5USc/bu as RUS wheat crop est. 85.2MMT, ↑1.9MMT from last est. EU 25/26 soft wheat exports at 1.4MMT from Jul 1-Aug 10, ↓1.9MMT from last year. AUD ↑0.15c despite RBA cash rate drop of 25bp. Trump considers lawsuit with US Feds has led to eroded certainty in USD.
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