CyclesFan @CyclesFan
I don't have a Telegram account and don't sell newsletters. Joined April 2014-
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$Gold - We are 117 trading days from the April high and we have a developing outside bearish reversal candle. The monthly pivot is at 3722. A close below 3722 would probably mean that an intermediate term top and the high for the year are in, just like the October 2024 top.
$Silver - We have a developing daily bearish engulfing candle. The monthly pivot is at 44.45. A close below 44.45 would probably mean that an intermediate term top is in, and if an intermediate term top is in, the high for the year would be in too just like last October.
$ETH - Closed above the monthly pivot at 4246 yesterday. That invalidated the down move to the 20 week MA I was expecting. The 1st monthly resistance is at 4668. If it closes above 4668 we may see a new all time high and reach the 2nd monthly resistance at 5190.
For the attention of gold/silver bugs that constantly talk about a fiat monetary collapse. x.com/sam_gatlin/sta…
For the attention of gold/silver bugs that constantly talk about a fiat monetary collapse. x.com/sam_gatlin/sta…
$SPX has opened October with a new high reaching 6718. The 1st target and resistance level for October is 6805. On the other hand the monthly pivot is at 6583, so in order to confirm the start of a correction and not just a pullback, it will have to close below 6583.
$QQQ - The 14 month RSI is at 76. It reached 82+ prior to every cyclical top in the last decade: in Nov 2014, 8 months before the 7 year cycle high in 2015. In Jan 2018, 8 months before the 4 year cycle high in 2018, and in Aug 2021, 3 months before the 7 year cycle high in 2021.
$DXY - The downtrend into the last 3 year cycle lows lasted 10 months, so my expectation has been the next 3YCL would occur in November. If instead it bounces in October, I would look for the downtrend to last 12 months and bottom in January, similar to the decline in 2017-2018.
$Silver is about to make the high for the year in the next week or two. The non farm payrolls on Friday will determine if it tops at 48.14 or makes a new ATH and gets to as high as 54.78. The bull market top will probably happen only next March or April.
$Gold - 7 year cycle lows since 1970. We are in the second 7 year cycle off the 2015 bear market low and 37 months into that cycle. Time is running out on this bull market.
$BTC - The previous 2 bull markets lasted 152 weeks from low to high. 152 weeks from the 2022 low points to the week of Oct 20-26. Paradoxically, it was better for the bulls if BTC declined to the 50 week MA 1st, because we could be just 3 weeks away from the bull market top.
$BTC - Closed above the 20 day MA yesterday and again today despite trading below it for most of the day. The odds of making lower lows in October have decreased significantly. If it breaks out above the September high(117971) it will probably make a new ATH.
$SPX - NVDA broke out and dragged the market higher with it, so we're unlikely to have a big down day tomorrow like we've had on the 1st trading days of August and September. It will probably make a new high this week. We'll have new monthly targets tomorrow.
$AMZN - Closed below the 20 week MA last week. The timing of the September high and close below the 20 WMA is similar to those of September 2023, and that probably means that it's likely to hit the lower band in late October as it did in 2023.
$NVDA - It looks like I was wrong and it's breaking out today. However, I doubt this breakout will lead to a significant up move, since the 1.618 extension of the January-April crash is at 194 and all we may get is a few % of upside before starting a bigger correction.
$SPX - The 1st trading days of August and September were big down days. That is what I expect to happen in October as well. However, if it doesn't close below the 20 day MA on Wednesday we would probably see a new all time high on Friday.
$QQQ - I still expect a decline into October 1st or 2nd, but I'm not sure we would drop to the 50 day MA anymore. The pull back may only reach the 20 day MA. If it closes below the 20 DMA on Wednesday it could still hit the 50 day MA on Thursday. We'll have to see.
$50,000? I say it's too conservative. It's headed to $5,000,000. x.com/great_martis/s…
$50,000? I say it's too conservative. It's headed to $5,000,000. x.com/great_martis/s…
$SPX - The 2 potential scenarios I see for Q4: 8% decline to test the February high at 6147, or sideways till early November and a run to the R2 pivot at 6972 by the end of the year. The post election years of 2009, 2013, 2017 and 2021 didn't have any significant decline in Q4.
$QQQ - In July 2024 it topped at 503 and had a 15% correction. This week's high was 603. The bearish scenario is a 10% correction to 540 that will test the February high. The bullish scenario is sideways till early November, then run higher to the R2 pivot at 626 by December.
$TSLA - 2nd weekly candle in a row that is entirely out of the upper band. The last time that happened was on the week of November 18 2024. Next week is likely to be a down week but I doubt it's going to fill the gap at 396, as I thought a week ago.

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