Brian Reed @Drinkwater5Reed
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712 Followers 873 Following8/ The graph is correct, and it's NOT the shrimp vendor. The case is not market related, and is the first (official) SARS2 case on record as reported by National Health Commission.
7/ The Dec 10 case was reported by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. No other data is found for this case. It's clear the patient had onset Dec 10, 2019, was at Jinyintan, and passed on Jan 20, 2020. archive.ph/gkpzs
6/ So, the shrimp vendor has onset Dec 11, instead of Dec 10. No big deal, so who is the Dec 10 patient? x.com/engineer2the/s…
5/ This one is a misconception. The Dec 10 case isn't the shrimp vendor (no, it's not a mistake). The shrimp vendor onset was Dec 11, per the Chen video, and she was a suspected case not included here. nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
5/ Where did Dec 10 come from? The Chaolin Huang paper? 1) the shrimp vendor never went to Jinyintan, she stayed at Union hospital 2) the shrimp vendor was never sequenced, only a suspected case with clinical diagnosis She's not in this paper. thelancet.com/journals/lance…
4/ The shrimp vendor is interviewed in same link as the 41M (Wuchang accountant). In her own words in the interview (translated): "I started feeling unwell from the 11th, and went to a small (clinic) and got two shots, but had no reaction to them." bit.ly/2YikwEa
3/ In "Dissecting the early COVID-19 cases in Wuhan" the sources are attached in the supplemental. The WSJ made the same error declaring the shrimp vendor onset as Dec 10, instead of Dec 11. No big deal, what's the difference? science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
2/ 41M Wuchang accountant likely had onset fever Dec 16, not Dec 8. That correction is fairly widely known. x.com/engineer2the/s…
2/ Let's start off with an easy one. New information became available that 41M Chen (Wuchang accountant) onset was actually Dec 16 instead of December 8. The info was found in the Chen interview video. thepaper.cn/newsDetail_for… nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
1/ 🧵on the earliest (official) reported case of SARS2. It will take some explanation and the results are not what you'd expect. Follow the trail of crumbs. 🧐
Epidemiology 101: How to spot sampling bias - plot all samples regardless of whether they are +ve or -ve for SARS-CoV-2. Anyone notice a pattern? Huanan Seafood Market environmental testing:
It’s quite obvious even to the opponents of the lab leak hypothesis that the recent re-analysis of the early patient data centered around Huanan is far from enough to prove zoonosis.
@angie_rasmussen @stgoldst @NatGeo There is a lag time between the primary case and index case. According to the Pekar paper, that’s about 3 weeks If it’s correct then it’s possible someone infected elsewhere brought it to Huanan during that time. The two possibilities are epidemicalogically indistinguishable.
Simple math: - "hundreds of millions of wild animals from hundreds of species are farmed for sale in the country" - "these [four] markets [in Wuhan] housed nearly 48,000 caged wild animals belonging to 38 species" Agree with @janeqiuchina: not probable
Also crucial: another Caixing article about the reporting biases, based on the top tier Zhongnan hospital, close to Wuhan Uni and on the 'wrong' side of the river (not the market side). bit.ly/3boqV74
With the predictable result that a few weeks may have elapsed before detection in a top tier hospital. As it is, the whistleblower case was an untraced Mr Chen, who never went close to the market, lived very far from it on the other side of the river. x.com/gdemaneuf/stat…
The funny thing about Jiangxia is that it is where Mr Chen was hospitalized before transferring to Ai Fen A&E service across the river, as his relative worked in that service. That Mr Chen had an onset date of the 16th Dec, worked and travelled locally, never went to any market.
Here is a good Chinese article showing how the low income elderly patients typically did not bother with a CT scan (too expensive) and just went for a blood transfusion and maybe an X-ray, in one of the local clinics bit.ly/3ovYGqk
Here is a key Caixin article showing the reporting bias with emphasis on the market. You have better chances to learn the truth by reading Caixin than by reading some Western scientists determined to enter history as the 'ones who solved the origins'. bit.ly/3S27CkJ
Amazingly, even when the Zhongnan hospital tried to report 2 early cases and put them in the official CDC reporting system, these two cases were simply deleted by someone, against all the system standard procedures. As simple as that.
For some good Chinese articles about the design and implementation flaws of that CDC reporting system, and the many ways one can effectively interfere with it at many levels, please see (7), (13) and (15) in this list: gillesdemaneuf.medium.com/translations-o…
8.3/ The IV injections are taken over a number of hours in a common sitting room. These clinic sitting rooms became early super-spreader events. Some people came in with the FLU, and the treatment worked. However they got sick again after picking up SARS2 at the clinic.
8.1/ Next up, the false positives. SARS2 wasn't sequenced till Dec 26/27, so cases earlier than this were traced backwards in time. The conditions for registering a positive case changed many times, so many patients are just suspected cases without any firm proof.
5/ This one is a misconception. The Dec 10 case isn't the shrimp vendor (no, it's not a mistake). The shrimp vendor onset was Dec 11, per the Chen video, and she was a suspected case not included here. nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…