Dynamic Wealth Group - Brad Barrie CFP, ChFC @DynamicAlphaSol
We partner with financial advisors, family offices, endowments and other successful investors to help them meet their investment objectives with confidence. DynamicWG.com United States Joined September 2022-
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Copper’s long game: limited mine supply + EVs, AI data centers, and solar demand = multi-year bullish setup. The imbalance could drive a multi-year uptrend, but timing entries around key price levels is key for enhancing risk-adjusted returns.
U.S. initial jobless claims, while often erratic, rose to 226,000 in the final week of July, well above market forecasts of a more modest rise to 221,000. The labor market remains intact, but signs of loosening continue to emerge.
Despite initial jobless claims remaining below levels seen in early June, continuing claims surged by 38,000 to 1.97 million in the week ended July 26, reaching the highest level since November 2021. Another sign of the labor market losing steam.
The Bank of England dropped interest rates a quarter point to 4% on August 7, the lowest rate across the pond since March 2023. With inflation fading globally, central banks are preparing for a shift. Is the Fed next?
Tariffs of up to 50% have kicked in for more than 60 countries, plus the EU bloc, amid President Trump’s latest round of levy hikes. Our view is that tariffs are likely to be passed on to consumers, slowing growth, ultimately giving the Fed more justification to trim rates.
China’s exports jumped 7.2% in July in U.S. dollar terms compared to one year earlier, far higher than the 5.4% increase predicted by economists polled by Reuters. Imports were also up considerably, rising 4.1% during the same period, the biggest increase since July 2024.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York says that the share of student loan debt entering delinquency surged to 12.9% at the end of June. As household stress builds, cracks in consumer strength could emerge, especially with rates still high.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says he expects the United States to collect at least $50B a month in tariff revenue, up from $30B, as higher levies take effect. Of course, that windfall is also a tax on consumers and businesses, raising the risk of slower growth.
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said a slowdown of the U.S. economy may justify a rate cut sooner. “The economy is slowing… In the near term it may become appropriate to start adjusting the federal funds rate,” he said on CNBC.
Global manufacturing business conditions worsened in July, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI falling into contraction territory, dropping to 49.7, down from 50.4 in June. A contractionary signal that keeps macro risks front and center.
Tariff uncertainty and global headwinds are weighing on business confidence. July’s Future Output Expectations Index hit its 4th-lowest level since 2022, another cue for investors to remain agile.
Labor productivity rebounded 2.4% in Q2 following a sharp drop in Q1. Amid weakening job data, this efficiency gain is welcome, but it may also reflect companies doing more with less labor.
Silver’s Solar Surge: A Breakout Built on Real Demand Read here: dynamicwealth.substack.com/p/silvers-sola…
This Isn’t 2022: Why Oil’s Climb Feels Different This Time Read here: dynamicwealth.substack.com/p/this-isnt-20…
If all your holdings rise and fall together with the economy, or any other single factor, you’re taking on concentrated risk, even if you’re exposed to a large basket of securities. In other words, you’re still concentrated, just in disguise.
China’s consumer prices were unchanged in July, as easing deflationary pressures followed a government pledge to rein in excessive competition. However, factory deflation persisted for its 34th straight month, with the producer price index slipping 3.6%.
U.S. CPI ticked up modestly in July, up 0.2% month-over-month, down from 0.3% in June. We remain focused on price acceleration shifts, without overreacting to one month’s print.
What exactly is non-correlation, and how is it related to diversification?
What’s a global macro strategy?
The US trade deficit in goods shrank by $10.4 billion between May and June, lowering to $86 billion. The reduction was likely driven, at least in part, by a decrease in foreign orders from importers after previously front-loading shipments amid concerns over tariffs.
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