Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

In-depth forensic reports generated by machine intelligence. Not investment advice forensicalpha.com London Joined February 2013

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Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

4 weeks ago

The surprise rights issue today at Orsted (down 27% today) goes to the heart of our thesis, which we set out at the IRF Best Equity Shorting Conference last month. Our system identified a balance sheet that was much weaker than the market realised $ORSTED

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Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

7 months ago

A side-by-side comparison of accounting policies for $INTC was possible just 2 hours after the publication of the 10-K thanks to our technology. It shows a subtle change in the point at which costs can be included within the valuation of inventory...

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Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

7 months ago

$DLB 10-Q shows “Unbilled Receivables” as most prominent flag on the balance sheet at $175m (~45 days of sales equivalent). DSO also somewhat elevated.

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Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

7 months ago

$TEL 10-Q sees a new flag for DPO, rising from 62 days to 69 days. Accounts payable on the balance sheet now amount to $1.9bn versus total debt of $4.2bn. Supplier finance has grown, with outstanding payments under supply chain finance increasing from $105m to $126m.

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Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

7 months ago

$OSIS 10-Q shows contract assets have reduced but remain elevated versus history. DSO continues to rise higher, while the allowance against receivables (as a percentage of receivables) continues to decline.

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Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

7 months ago

$CACI One key flag in the 10-Q is use of factoring arrangements, with the sale of uncollected receivables rising from $110m to $156m. This is particularly sensitive given the rising levels of debt following the acquisition of Azure Summit Technology.

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Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

8 months ago

Ørsted down 14% following DKK 12bn in impairments. The stock was at the top of our European "High Risk" list. Following impairments in 23/24, the temptation is for investors to believe the worst is over. In this case our system was clearly signalling investors to keep away.

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Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

9 months ago

$AVAV had been flagged with our highest risk rating of "10" prior to the dramatic decline today. Our automated analysis of SEC filings shows a pattern associated with pulling earnings forward - one classic signal showing on the system here is "unbilled receivables"

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Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

11 months ago

We've just released our module on "Off-Balance Sheet", designed to capture high risk VIEs, JVs and associates. These names are currently showing "High Risk" on our platform: $EQIX $AGR $WYNN $CMI $FTI Institutional investors...DM here to book a demo and see more...

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Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

11 months ago

We previously wrote about a dangerous build-up of inventory at Nordic Semiconductor, symptomatic of "over-production". Lower production typically leads to lower margins, so sometimes it's easier to "extend and pretend". As we see today (-21%), the CEO has decided to hit reset.

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Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

a year ago

Because of its business model, sitting between travellers and suppliers, Expedia runs with a large balance sheet. The biggest moves are seasonal changes, but this obscured a meaningful shift in DSO picked up by our system $EXPE link.medium.com/jtLQdhYcMJb

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Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

a year ago

It's not only high-growth companies that engage in aggressive accounting. In our experience, companies in turnaround have just as much incentive to inflate numbers as management buy time. A new flag on abrdn plc recently piqued our interest... $abdn medium.com/view-from-leve…

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Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

a year ago

We analyse the risk associated with short-term loans being made by $HRB under their rapidly growing "Emerald Advance" program. Why is the allowance reducing even as the loan balance grows? medium.com/view-from-leve…

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Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

a year ago

In spite of a profit warning, we argue the market still underestimates the risk associated with the inventory overhang at Nordic Semiconductor. "Ship and Debit" arrangements with distributors may amplify the risk medium.com/view-from-leve…

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Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

2 years ago

$BE has been flagging as "maximum risk" since Q2 results back in August. At the time we raised issues around the massive increase in trade receivables and potential concerns related to the timing of revenue recognition. See our write-up here medium.com/view-from-leve…

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Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

2 years ago

An obscure line item in the notes to the interim financial statements provides some clues about what Wizz Air booked in compensation from the Pratt & Whitney deal $WIZZ medium.com/view-from-leve…

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Forensic Alpha @ForensicAlpha

2 years ago

We take a look at the expanding balance sheet of CNH Industrial, driven by 2 line items - inventory and financing receivables. Combined with rising dealer incentives and a "material weakness" in internal controls, our risk rating has risen $CNHI medium.com/view-from-leve…