Sam Gable @GableNot
Used to be a journalist, now an analyst, forever a pessimist - geopolitics and security - Middle East and North Africa London, England Joined January 2015-
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There will only be one headline from today's ICJ statement: ICJ does not call for a ceasefire or immediate cessation of Israel's military operation. That's it. Both sides will claim victory, and the court of public opinion in the meantime will do its job #ICJGenocideConvention
Reconstruction and re-election - what's next for Turkiye? Join us today 1600hrs UK
Reconstruction and re-election - what's next for Turkiye? Join us today 1600hrs UK
Never forget.
In a triumph for diversity, our next Prime Minister will either be someone who studied PPE at Lincoln College, Oxford, or someone who studied PPE at Merton College, Oxford.
"the Signposts and the Weathercocks" - what are you? @trussliz
He’s going. Give it to Big Sam for the rest of the season.
“What’s happening Kammy” 😳🤷🏽♂️ i dunno Jeff 😂🤣
A 1979 advertisement for London transit showing how the city would look if built by American planners. The tragedy of many Middle Eastern cities is that they opted for American urban planning.
Did the May core update impact you? Join @sanghamitra_m @nashpd @rajupp @varunkrish & @tarek_abz on Friday as we discuss the update. Let us know your experience as replies below👇 x.com/i/spaces/1rmxp…
There is something particularly spineless about news outlets who watch their fellow journalists get targeted and killed by a known entity and then seek to muddy the cause of death by referring to "clashes" or failing to assign responsibility for the actor that did the killing.
Word of the day, for Nazanin, is the French ‘retrouvailles’: the joy of reuniting after a long, long time apart.
Not being funny but Roman Abramovic has been funding Israeli settlement groups (illegal under int'l law) for years. And I'm a Chelsea fan so... 🤷🏽♂️
The invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent reaction to it is quite triggering for a lot of people. And the fact some people don't get it is exactly why it is so triggering.
“Football should stay out of politics” (except the politics we agree with) 🙄
“Football should stay out of politics” (except the politics we agree with) 🙄
While it is popular to critique colonialism and neo-colonialism, it is auto-colonialism that is often overlooked, this is when local elites who “displaced” the former colonial overlords end up running the same oppressive governing structures under the guise of nationalism. 1/3
so little andy is paying a woman he's never met to compensate for something he never did with money that's not his? 🎩🤡
Young Simba 👑
Daniel @danielmarcevans
6K Followers 1K Following Defunct account, sorry. Supporting Twitter is supporting a bunch of things I really don't want to. Insta/Threads links are pinned.
Timothy E Kaldas @tekaldas
25K Followers 3K Following Deputy Director: @timepDC Prof/PhD Candidate: @UABBarcelona Political Economist, Risk Advisor, Wine Lover (WSET L3) & Professional Cynic #RefugeesWelcome He/Him
Joe Akkawi @JoeAkkawi
5K Followers 606 Following SaaS Consultant. Technology Presenter for hire! Columnist, Musician & Gamer. Retweeted by President of El Salvdor. Waiting for YouTube to fix the world. #MUFC
Gulf Intelligence @gulf_intel
12K Followers 2K Following Gulf Intelligence is the leading strategic consulting group in the Middle East focused on the international energy & natural resources industry.
Rob McGov @RobMcGov
2K Followers 5K Following Dubliner 🇮🇪 in London 🇬🇧 11yrs in Dubai 🇦🇪 💡 @SitecoreMVP ✏️ Written for @CampaignME, @WIREDMiddleEast, @EntMagazineME 🧵 Threads @robertmcgovern
Zarah Loughary @lougha_zar
14 Followers 3K Following
Michalina Herber @HerberHerb
82 Followers 5K Following
FredericaHarte @wE0YzUOa5Zvdz
27 Followers 1K Following
Chantal Earney @ear_chant
58 Followers 5K Following
Paris Stoudemire @StoudemiPar
77 Followers 5K Following
Amarah Feasel @feas_amar
37 Followers 5K Following
Jess Theresa @je_theres
60 Followers 5K Following
Collen Hulan @hu_col
56 Followers 5K Following
Lasonya Wescom @LWescom59129
79 Followers 5K Following
Georgetta Koerner @GeorgettaK83326
33 Followers 5K Following
WallisEden @yOdefei7Qw5zJ6
26 Followers 888 Following
Lara Gibson @lar_gibson
493 Followers 845 Following Middle East Correspondent ✍️Words in The New Arab, Middle East Eye, Monocle, Semafor, Business Insider, Africa Report & others
H_azel @Hazel4126520845
17 Followers 1K Following
Shana Marshall @marshall_shana
282 Followers 224 Following Assoc.Dir. GW's Institute for Middle East Studies; Member MERIP, Security in Context, Political Econ Project & Forum on the Arms Trade
Kumar Chulliparambil @KumarChulli
15 Followers 189 Following
Sudani @S0DANI
196 Followers 1K Following Baghdadi Mesopotamian lost in Paris 🇮🇶🇫🇷. Poetry, politics, philosophy, & cinema! @SciencesPo #Aveclesréfugiés
Jalel Harchaoui جل�.. @JMJalel_H
29K Followers 5K Following Covers North Africa w/ a focus on #Libya security & political economy. Associate Fellow @RUSI_org.
Igidali Ashurbegov @IgidaliAshurbe8
700 Followers 5K Following THE FUTURE OF CONSTRUCTION OF BUILDINGS,SKYSCRAPERS...ALREADY HERE! Looking for a partner to master new technology #METHODIGIDALI-builds much faster,cheaper..
Valérie Marcel @ValerieMarcel
3K Followers 2K Following Poli sci PhD. How do oil/gas producers manage the energy transition? Director, New Producers for Sustainable Energy https://t.co/h5sMxug2oe.
Abubakr Al-Shamahi @ShamahiAbubakr
1K Followers 796 Following Editing & writing with a MENA focus @ajenglish
Paromita Dey @ParomitaDey1
607 Followers 2K Following Financial journalist. India🇮🇳 - UAE🇦🇪. Always positive. Subtly dominating. Traveller. Achiever.
Ladiva @Ladiva_ceramica
366 Followers 3K Following Wall | Floor Ceramic Tiles - Exporter & Manufacturer - Building Relationships all over the world - Partner you can trust - 100% made in Italy
Karlee steel @karleesteel042
4 Followers 53 Following Never regret anything that made you smile. – ...
Faisal @faisalimam_
22 Followers 151 Following
Muhieddine Chatila @MuhieChatila
599 Followers 5K Following Steel Industry- rebars (black and epoxy coated), Rebar in Coils, Wire Rod, Wire Mesh (black, galvanized, & epoxy coated), Galvanized Wires, Fence. حديد تسليح
Angela @Angela40834556
49 Followers 4K Following 🍃😏 Мy nаme is Аngеla!🤩 Here is mу аlbum and mу naked рhоtos!)) Vоtе fог me, рls:💝 https://t.co/P8uW0YMTGc
James Harmon @James_A_Harmon
143 Followers 128 Following Chair Emerita @WorldResources, Egyptian-American Enterprise Fund @EAEFund, Caravel & Fmr. Chair of @EximBankUS | Author, Up and Doing https://t.co/pDcmFKx1Ny
Conrad Deverell @JCCDeverell
84 Followers 1K Following Conflict and its resolution | Geopolitics and Foreign Affairs | RT ≠ Endorsement
Jana @jnaAmrr
78 Followers 191 Following
Mariana Liakopoulou @liakopoulouma94
6K Followers 3K Following Markets & Policy Associate @energytraderseu, Energy Security Analyst @NATOCanada | School of Economics & Political Science NKUA | @paofc_ @ChelseaFC fan
Nihal | نهال @nihalist___
52K Followers 2K Following book reader • music listener • football watcher • counter-propagandist • لست مهزوما ما دمت تقاوم• DM for email
Benjamin Schroeder @BenjaminSchroed
3K Followers 2K Following Communications, #MiddleEast #IoT #CMO #Energy #climate
Michael Graf Rasch�.. @its_for_sale
96K Followers 64K Following Realtor Condos in Brickell, Coconut Grove, Downtown Miami, Miami Beach Coral Gables 📱305-741-1819 3x #NYTimes 2x #WSJ Linkedin https://t.co/jwcAAZ7hpX
Elie Obeid @eliobeid
149 Followers 588 Following Passionate Engineering & Construction Leader. Married to Nicole & father of Tiana and Mia. Think positive and be Happy!
Ebrahim AlBanki @EbrahimAlbanki
331 Followers 2K Following Interested in Oil & Energy Trading & Risk Management | MBA | University of Strathclyde Business School | BSc Theoretical Physics + Operations Management
Dubai Fishing Trip�.. @DubaifishingTrp
18K Followers 1K Following Dubai Fishing Trips -for booking call or watsapp : 00971563729777 https://t.co/3N4IjAugdO fishing boats in dubai-boat for fishing in dubai
Go Green from Cyber G.. @GoGreenae
4K Followers 5K Following Visit https://t.co/z2PhitDaVL to buy eco-friendly products.
PMKConsult @pmkconsult
254 Followers 298 Following We are one of the largest dedicated project and commercial management consultancies in the UAE and serving the region.
Tim Adam @TimAdam83817931
6 Followers 2K Following
Politically Defined @mynewpolitics
235 Followers 337 Following Creating conversation about political affairs from around the world. Political podcast. #creatingconversation
Jay Ashar @AsharJay
100 Followers 636 Following #Branding , #Marketing and #Advertising Guy :) Love #Anime, #Fitness and #Music #MarathonatHome , #Spartan Super and #ToughMudder Finisher :) Manchester United!
PlantPredict @PlantPredict
64 Followers 478 Following PlantPredict is a sophisticated solar energy modeling tool designed to develop energy estimates for utility-scale PV applications.
bertsdubai @Bertscafe_dubai
755 Followers 3K Following Bert's Cafe is a premium French Cafe serving Coffee and Healthy food i.e Breakfast, Acai and other protein dishes, Bagels, Salads, sandwiches, Hot dishes, vegan
✍️ Rachel McArthu.. @raychdigitalink
10K Followers 1K Following #MENA▪️Healthcare Journalist▪️Founder & Managing Editor @ Digital Ink Media▪️Creating editorial content for top media titles▪️Hit link in bio for more ⤵️
Daniel @danielmarcevans
6K Followers 1K Following Defunct account, sorry. Supporting Twitter is supporting a bunch of things I really don't want to. Insta/Threads links are pinned.
Dawn Metcalfe @DawnPDSi
4K Followers 2K Following Before-times: Author, culture advisor, speaker, trainer, coach in Dubai. https://t.co/hhwavyNv9d Now: same but everwhere! https://t.co/9m6MvdpJOk
Javier Blas @JavierBlas
297K Followers 1K Following Energy and commodities columnist at Bloomberg. Co-author of the 'The World for Sale' https://t.co/GAcVleqiqp Any views expressed are my own. [email protected]
Talib Hashim @TalibHashem
4K Followers 1K Following 🟢 Entrepreneur, Founder of TBH, Founder of Myjlis: https://t.co/Piqy6IHz3E 🟢Helping people and businesses grow in the Middle East 🟢IG: therealtalib📍Dubai, UAE
karak head @janethejourno
2K Followers 2K Following Ex-news with views and tattoos. Somebody's mamma, but not yours.
Amro Ali @_amroali
40K Followers 3K Following Prof. of sociology & writer of things on Egypt, Mediterranean, Arab world, fiction, poetry & philosophy. @Sydney_Uni alumni. https://t.co/IgNNXSZBG7
Riz @rizwanfarooq
2K Followers 495 Following Dubai-born, non-Arabic speaking expat | Work: Under a large Dome in the capital | Play: Not your games
Karl Sharro @KarlreMarks
196K Followers 1K Following Architect, satirist and extremely bad cartoonist. Director of the Institute of Internet Diagrams. Warning: may contain dad jokes. #YNWA
Mitch @geordiedentist
15K Followers 2K Following Gobshite geordie in a sunny and sandy exile. Yes I am a dentist. Really. Often prone to Twitter Tourettes. Usually on match days. Fueled by Hobnobs and caffeine
Mai El-Sadany @maitelsadany
33K Followers 991 Following Human Rights Lawyer | @TimepDC Executive Director | @Stanford & @GeorgetownLaw Alumna
D.N.S. @DubaiNameShame
73K Followers 21K Following It's called sarcasm! It's about engagement! It provokes! Understand? If not please don't follow me!
Hafsa Halawa @HafsaHalawa
30K Followers 471 Following Egyptian/Iraqi Brit. Political analyst and human rights advocate, MENA/Horn of Africa. Views here my own. RT ≠ endorsement.
Emma Brain @EmzUnfiltered
8K Followers 1K Following Media professional. Confidence / Public speaking coach. My views. Sometimes salty.
Dubai Policeشرطة .. @DubaiPoliceHQ
2.1M Followers 205 Following تـــأسـســــت عـــام 1956 Established in
Sarah Jaimie Bahar @SarahJBahar
3K Followers 3K Following I tweet about being parent a lot more than I thought I would. Paid job: corp comms. Author: The Possibilities Project 📖
Timothy E Kaldas @tekaldas
25K Followers 3K Following Deputy Director: @timepDC Prof/PhD Candidate: @UABBarcelona Political Economist, Risk Advisor, Wine Lover (WSET L3) & Professional Cynic #RefugeesWelcome He/Him
Nicola Ellegaard 𓅃 @banafsaji
4K Followers 3K Following Independent PR & Communications Consultant @budgiepr. Camera and budgie owner. Caviar lifestyle, canned tuna budget.
Alex Malouf @alex_malouf
5K Followers 3K Following Gulf-based journo, author, comms head @ceer and @prca_mena board member. Proud father & hubby who loves to chat & volunteer. 🐱
Yaakov Lappin @YaakovLappin
12K Followers 2K Following Military, strategic affairs analyst and correspondent. Miryam Institute, Jane's Defence Weekly, JNS, Circuit, BESA, I24, Trends, National Interest.
Anas Altikriti أنس.. @anasaltikriti
19K Followers 172 Following CEO & Founder, The Cordoba Foundation (Cultures in Dialogue), UK رئيس ومؤسس مؤسسة قرطبة (ثقافات تتحاور) في المملكة المتحدة
Lara Gibson @lar_gibson
493 Followers 845 Following Middle East Correspondent ✍️Words in The New Arab, Middle East Eye, Monocle, Semafor, Business Insider, Africa Report & others
Sam Husseini @samhusseini
65K Followers 9K Following Through layers of lies...and layers of beauty. Exposing genocide, WMDs & more at https://t.co/GnMYgVTIP2. End the duopoly at @VotePact. Art: https://t.co/5rhodGIvpL
Tobias Borck @tobiasborck
1K Followers 740 Following @RUSI_org Senior Associate Fellow; from 🇩🇪and🇬🇧; PhD @UniofExeter. All views my own, retweets ≠ endorsement.
Muhammad Shehada @muhammadshehad2
114K Followers 933 Following Chief of Comms @EuroMedHR | Gazan Writer & Analyst @BlinxNow | Columnist @JDForward | Bylines in @Haaretzcom @AJEnglish, @Vice, @Newsweek… Views my own
Joost Hiltermann @JoostHiltermann
13K Followers 2K Following MENA Program Director @crisisgroup. Conflict prevention, human rights, good food, Belgian beer. MIT Fellow. Author of A Poisonous Affair https://t.co/92OLg7OQjo
Ghaith Shennib @GhaithShennib
5K Followers 1K Following part time entrepreneur full time motorcyclist #Derna
Mohammed Elgrj @moelgrj
4K Followers 647 Following Libyan journalist, oil & energy focus. My views only. Economic news anchor & producer. Founder of TheLibyanOasis. #LibyaSpecialist
Pys @CFCPys
502K Followers 6K Following Co-owner of https://t.co/vosR9sdqCm. #CFC writer, editor and live show host. DM’s open for enquiries.
Sudan War Monitor @sudanwarmonitor
14K Followers 130 Following News, analysis, maps, and videos in English and Arabic. Sign up for our newsletter to receive updates by email: https://t.co/EruQsZVZqg
خواجة مسكين @daniel_van0
9K Followers 996 Following Open source researcher and investigative journalist with @sudanwarmonitor. Subscribe for email updates about the conflict: https://t.co/2jgNZ1Heob.
Kemal Kılıçdaroğl.. @kilicdarogluk
10.6M Followers 3 Following Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi 7. Genel Başkanı
Rashid Abdi @RAbdiAnalyst
417K Followers 5K Following Chief Analyst. Horn of Africa, Middle East. Sahan Research. Security, military, major power competition, strategy, media, humour Fellow: Rift Valley Institute
Donatella Rovera @DRovera
26K Followers 10K Following Senior Crisis Adviser @Amnesty International - Investigating War Crimes & Human Rights Abuses ⚖️ in Conflicts/Crisis - Views r my own - RT not endorsement
ibrahim Haskoloğlu @haskologlu
985K Followers 471 Following Journalist | Anlık Haberler için Bildirimleri Açın | İletişim İçin: [email protected]
Evren Balta 🫐 @Evreki
35K Followers 2K Following Professor of PolSci, @ozyeginuni /PhD, CUNY- The Graduate Center’07 /MIA, Columbia Un’00 /#foreignpolicy #turkishpolitics #citizenship #populism #security
Yasmine Farouk ياس.. @YasFarouk
5K Followers 3K Following Associate Prof & forever student. Senior advisor @Eurpeace. Nonresident @CarnegieEndow & @Baker_EPDCtrME. Typos. Retweets not endorsements.
Niku Jafarnia @NikuJafarnia
2K Followers 400 Following Yemen and Bahrain researcher at Human Rights Watch @HRW. Sometimes a lawyer. Views my own, RTs ≠ endorsements.
Shana Marshall @marshall_shana
282 Followers 224 Following Assoc.Dir. GW's Institute for Middle East Studies; Member MERIP, Security in Context, Political Econ Project & Forum on the Arms Trade
Selin Girit @selingirit
121K Followers 2K Following Broadcast Journalist @BBC | Covering Turkey, ME and beyond @BBCWorldService | Previously BBC Turkey Bilingual Correspondent | YouTube: selingiritnews
Louis Fishman لوي .. @Istanbultelaviv
71K Followers 2K Following Associate Prof Brooklyn College; Author of Jews and Palestinians in thelate Ottoman era: Turkish, Israeli/Palestinian affairs; working on a book, more to come!
Zaid Al-Ali @zalali
11K Followers 2K Following Senior Adviser on constitutions @Int_IDEA. Author of books on Iraq + on Arab constitutions. Former @wiko_berlin @Princeton @Harvard_Law @UNIraq @KingsCollegeLon
Raya Jalabi | راي�.. @rayajalabi
8K Followers 2K Following @FT Middle East Correspondent (🇱🇧🇸🇾🇮🇶 ). I don't like condensing thoughts and I don't like Twitter. مراسلة الفاينانشال تايمز ببيروت | [email protected]
Mara Revkin @MaraRevkin
7K Followers 3K Following Associate Professor @DukeLaw. Nonresident @CarnegieDCG. Law & political science of conflict, peacebuilding & transitional justice. Rhymes w/ @JonPetkun.
Thanassis Cambanis @tcambanis
8K Followers 2K Following Director of @CenturyIntl, senior fellow @TCFdotorg. Books: Iraq war (forthcoming), Once Upon a Revolution, Hezbollah, Hybrid Actors, Citizenship & Discontents.
Belkis Wille @belkiswille
18K Followers 262 Following Senior Crisis & Conflict Researcher at Human Rights Watch
Hayder حيدر @HayderSH
8K Followers 2K Following Research Fellow @ChathamHouse @CH_MENAP. Cautiously optimistic 🇮🇶 @AUB_Lebanon @SOAS. All views are my own. 🇵🇸🇵🇸
Rosemary Griffin @boudicca83
1K Followers 3K Following S&P Global Commodity Insights journalist based in London, covering Russia, CIS and OPEC+. Opinions my own
Khaled Fahmy @khaledfahmy11
74K Followers 432 Following مؤرخ مصري. أستاذ بجامعة تافتس. Egyptian historian. Teaches at Tufts University
Gönül Tol @gonultol
36K Followers 2K Following Director of Middle East Institute's Turkish Program / Author of Erdoğan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria/ [email protected]
Bellingcat @bellingcat
781K Followers 67 Following Want to support our charity? https://t.co/scuUINEvTN Buy our book "We Are Bellingcat" here: https://t.co/2JiuWFfTpO Our award-winning podcast series: https://t.co/S1rflrkXue
Renad Mansour @renadmansour
8K Followers 1K Following Senior Research Fellow @ChathamHouse and @IRISmideast. @Cambridge_Uni PhD. Research, analysis, and the occasional joke on the Middle East.
Osman Can @CanAnayasa
118K Followers 343 Following Prof. Dr., Marmara Üniversitesi; 2014-18 dönemi Avrupa Konseyi Venedik Komisyonu üyesi ve Bilimsel Kurul Başkan Yardımcısı
Majd Fahd 🇸🇾 @Syria_Protector
39K Followers 706 Following Security analyst and former reporter @moi_syria1, @TheArabSource, @Muraselon & @TheCradleMedia. Telegram News Channel 📰: 👉https://t.co/jQ7w4V6bGZ👈
Nazanine Moshiri @nazaninemoshiri
22K Followers 4K Following Senior Analyst, Climate, Environment and Conflict @CrisisGroup. Married to @youssefg. Londoner. Former Reuters, AJE, ITN, BBC. Proud @ucl alumni. Views mine.
Tammuz Intel @Tammuz_Intel
30K Followers 106 Following Covering security and political developments in Iraq 🇮🇶 and M.E. Likes & Retweets ≠ Endorsement . #OSINT #RUMINT #HUMINT
DGSN MAROC @DGSN_MAROC
489K Followers 26 Following La Direction Générale de la Sûreté Nationale DGSN, police marocaine, a pour missions le maintien de l’ordre public et la protection des personnes et des biens.
Sudani @S0DANI
196 Followers 1K Following Baghdadi Mesopotamian lost in Paris 🇮🇶🇫🇷. Poetry, politics, philosophy, & cinema! @SciencesPo #Aveclesréfugiés
deena @itsdeenasaur
16K Followers 655 Following writes and draws comics. did shubeik lubeik, available in arabic from @almahrosacenter & english @pantheonbooks. spiderverse fan. etc rt not endorsement
Mohamed Eljarh @Eljarh
53K Followers 3K Following All things #Libya @LibyaDesk & @AlmieyarLibya - RT≠Endorsement. Formerly @ForeignPolicy @AtlanticCouncil.
Anas El Gomati @AGomati
13K Followers 2K Following Director @sadeqinstitute Libya's 1st think tank. Chief contributor Security & Governance. Tripoli/Beirut/Paris/London [email protected]
Uğur Yılmaz @uguruzyilmaz
12K Followers 959 Following Bloomberg News Turkey Bureau Chief, Istanbul-Ankara. Opinions are my own. Reposts are not endorsements. {NI TURKEY GO} @business
JamesInTurkey.com @jamesinturkey
21K Followers 281 Following Turkish politics website. RTs are interesting, not endorsements. By @MichaelDaventry, not James
Yuval Noah Harari @harari_yuval
632K Followers 53 Following Historian and bestselling author of 'Sapiens', 'Homo Deus', '21 Lessons for the 21st Century', 'Sapiens: A Graphic History', 'Unstoppable Us', and 'NEXUS'.
Patricia J. Karam @PatriciaJKaram
959 Followers 855 Following Democracy/governance professional focused on #MENAtrends, #Iran, #Iraq, #Lebanon, #humanrights, #maligndisinfo. Ex- @IRIGlobal, @ICTJ, @NRGI. Views my own.
Honoured to be a guest of @suljagicemir1 at the Srebrenica Memorial Center @SrebrenicaMC in a few days. Recalling, remembering, recollecting --- and never, ever forgetting, what happened on this hallowed ground. Humbled.
Rather bizarre to have to explain to politicians and journalists that in most of the world, Israel Vs Gaza is seen much like Russia Vs Ukraine. Ukraine & Gaza as the victims, and Russia & Israel as the invaders/occupiers. It also happens to be true.
This 3-year-old tweet has aged well
Have been reminded by a friend that I publicly called it some months ago. Shameless plug. #EgyptElections
Some points from my latest trip to Cairo last week: 1. no devaluation coming. CBE Governor has made his position clear: no dollars, no deval. 2. President refuses to make serious econ decisions before elections. Thus: #Egypt is heading to the polls early. Estimate end 2023.
MIXED MARTIAL ARTS LADIES AND GENTLEMEN. 😳 🏆 SEAN STRICKLAND HAS SHOCKED THE WORLD TO BECOME CHAMPION! #UFC293
Against most forecasting odds, the US economy is holding up much better than expected. This is to a large extent driven by robust personal consumption. So what's driving a healthy consumer and will it continue? A thread 🧵
#SONDAKİKA | Suriyeli bir kişi Fransa'daki parkta 6 küçük çocuğa bıçaklı saldırı gerçekleştirdi. Ortalama 3 yaşında olan çocukların durumu kritik.
Thrilled to moderate this panel on Egypt's State Ownership Policy & possible challenges with Egypt's new IMF program @SayighYezid led a group of excellent scholars to assemble a series of pieces on the subject & we'll discuss their findings Register here timep.org/2023/05/09/ass…
Agree with Ricardo’s analysis that headline wage growth is marginally benefitting from job adds in low paying sectors. BUT I think you are losing sight of the bigger picture by focusing on a tenth of a percent adjustment to wage growth. What really matters for inflation is…
This analysis from Ricardo Trezzi, who does careful work in the inflation front, is concerning. It suggests that wage inflation, which I regard as the best “super core” inflation measure, may have not been decelerating. This would make the @federalreserve's already difficult…
...is the Fed having caused a recession (60%) or engineered a soft landing (30%). Overheating (10%) is a possibility if the Fed wavers early and cuts too soon, but that seems less of a risk at the moment. And what's more compelling?
Ok risk-reward seems decent, but how could things go wrong? The most obvious miscalcualtion would be continued overheating and curve inversion. But it's difficlt to envisage that in 2.5 years time the Fed would still be grappling with a hot economy. The more likely outcome...
2) If we simply look at the average 3m vs 3y3m since 1989, it has traded at +140bps. So without any macro considerations, history is on the side of the trade. But it's even more compelling when you consider we are late cycle and curves are likely to steepen from here on...
1) If we are in a recession, it is reasonable to expect Fed near zero and 3y3m around terminal Fed Funds, say 3% if you believe the latest dot plot, or 3.5% if you believe current market pricing. Or if you want to be conservative, 2.5% to allow for terminal rate repricing lower
So the market is clearly already pricing a fair bit of steepening compared to the spot 3m vs 3y3m which currently stands at -183bps! Question is, does it still offer a good risk-reward? A few approaches here...
Now, I understand some will argue that a recession within 6m seems like a big assumption to make. I will discuss my reasoning in a follow up thread. For now, take it with a pinch of salt. Back to the trade, so where is the 3m Dec-25 vs Dec-28 curve trading? EDZ5-Z8 is at +20bps
The steepening move typically coincides with the recession (or a few months before) and takes around 1-3 years (2 on average). If we assume a recession is likely within the next 6 months as the impact of Fed hikes fitlers through, we would expect peak steepness around ~Dec-25
During three of the last four recessions, the gap between the 3months rate and 3y-forward-3months widened by ~500bps as the Fed cut rates and the curve steepened. In the 2020 covid induced recession the move was more modest at ~250bps as the terminal rate was priced lower (A🧵)
We are launching Turkish Election Watch series, a weekly update on the latest developments about Turkey's upcoming presidential and parliamentary vote. Below is the first by @heissenstat for @MiddleEastInst mei.edu/blog/turkish-e…
Meet with one of our solution experts to learn how to reduce the time you spend securing your Microsoft Cloud data from weeks to minutes. Bonus: We'll send you a free gift as thanks!
Very excited to have @maitelsadany as our Executive Director starting today. We’ve worked together at @TimepDC for 8 years and she’s always been a brilliant, principled and compassionate colleague and advocate. She’s going to be great at the helm of our institute.
Today is my first day as Executive Director of @TimepDC! I'm lucky to be taking on this role alongside a brilliant team and to be building on the work of so many wonderful interns, fellows, and staff over the last decade. Don't stop bringing on the feedback, ideas, and collab!
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