The costs of solar & batteries are almost entirely from upfront production cost. Concerns about resource constraints are either misplaced (we have enough land to power solar for the next millenium) ... x.com/glennluk/statu…
The costs of solar & batteries are almost entirely from upfront production cost. Concerns about resource constraints are either misplaced (we have enough land to power solar for the next millenium) ... x.com/glennluk/statu…
... or can be innovated around (critical battery materials like lithium/cobalt). x.com/glennluk/statu…
... or can be innovated around (critical battery materials like lithium/cobalt). x.com/glennluk/statu…
Once installed, these assets produce essentially free energy for society. And unlike with fossil fuels, you know you won't run out of the sun — at least for five billion years, give or take. space.com/14732-sun-burn…
So there really isn't an upper bound on demand. Society will figure out interesting ways to use this extra new energy. The only constraint is cost. And if costs continue to fall, there is no upper limit on how much you can install.
4⃣ Chinese policymakers have been *incredibly conservative on their solar and battery projections. They once targeted "20-30 GW by 2020". The last official goal was to hit 1,200 GW (solar+wind) by 2030. They may hit that by May or June of this year. x.com/glennluk/statu…
4⃣ Chinese policymakers have been *incredibly conservative on their solar and battery projections. They once targeted "20-30 GW by 2020". The last official goal was to hit 1,200 GW (solar+wind) by 2030. They may hit that by May or June of this year. x.com/glennluk/statu…
Chinese policymakers set a goal of 190-220 GW of on-grid solar PV installations this year, which is flat/down over last year's 216 GW. But Jan-Feb YTD pace is +80% YoY. x.com/tphuang/status…
Chinese policymakers set a goal of 190-220 GW of on-grid solar PV installations this year, which is flat/down over last year's 216 GW. But Jan-Feb YTD pace is +80% YoY. x.com/tphuang/status…
Moreover, there are increasing numbers of large off-grid projects such as this $6B project in Qiqihar that produces aviation fuel from onsite clean energy (wind in this case but could easily by solar too, or both). hydrogeninsight.com/production/sta…
With batteries, China is currently prioritizing pumped storage over battery storage. One reason is that battery production is being prioritized for passenger vehicle production. Commercial NEVs is also ramping up slower, again because of *constrained battery production.
The problem here with some of these "overcapacity" or "excess capacity" calculations is that they are taking old projections at face value or see and/or view demand as static i.e. not taking into account the massive growth potential unlocked by continuous price reduction.
I discussed how price reduction unlocks demand with NEVs 👇 As solar & batteries are more general-purpose technologies, the potential to unlock societal demand of essentially nearly unlimited, almost-free energy is an order-of-magnitude greater. x.com/glennluk/statu…
I discussed how price reduction unlocks demand with NEVs 👇 As solar & batteries are more general-purpose technologies, the potential to unlock societal demand of essentially nearly unlimited, almost-free energy is an order-of-magnitude greater. x.com/glennluk/statu…
The only thing that has been consistent about solar PV forecasts has been how much it has been underestimated, year after year after year. It is a running joke at this point.
Exports of solar PV and batteries are much higher than with cars, accounting for upwards of half of domestic production. Whereas with cars, it is somewhere between 10-15% of domestic production now. nytimes.com/2024/03/07/bus…