Commodities MacGruber @GoForGrubes2
Commodities Investor. Very Long Oil and Coal. 60% Commodities, 20% Special Sits and 20% Short Garbage. *Not Investment Advice* Now kind of a Bitcoin douche! SW Florida Joined April 2022-
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Have mentioned for 18 months on this site that 4% on the 10-year is where RE & CRE works or doesn't work. Even the thought that rates will fall thru 4% gets the buyers & brokers out. Phone absolutely blew up today...and none of them know they're talking to MacGruber!
Have mentioned for 18 months on this site that 4% on the 10-year is where RE & CRE works or doesn't work. Even the thought that rates will fall thru 4% gets the buyers & brokers out. Phone absolutely blew up today...and none of them know they're talking to MacGruber!
Energy Chief Says Natural Gas Will Become Largest US Export So the CIA will blow up all the gas pipelines between Russia and China?
Our player has a different strategy than in past weeks & I suspect it's complicated by the timing/uncertainty of NFP Next weeks chain is absolutely unreal & it appears as though they've loaded the boat for next week to 🚀 (emoji intended) ↗️ Highest forward $ week of calls IRC
Our player has a different strategy than in past weeks & I suspect it's complicated by the timing/uncertainty of NFP Next weeks chain is absolutely unreal & it appears as though they've loaded the boat for next week to 🚀 (emoji intended) ↗️ Highest forward $ week of calls IRC
Someone asked me yesterday about what I'd be watching for today other than RATES. I said oil. WTI under $62. 👀🍑 Someone asked me this morning about why QQQ was 🚀. I said I didn't care how equities responded to rates ↘️ but oil has the right read & that was before OPEC news.
Someone asked me yesterday about what I'd be watching for today other than RATES. I said oil. WTI under $62. 👀🍑 Someone asked me this morning about why QQQ was 🚀. I said I didn't care how equities responded to rates ↘️ but oil has the right read & that was before OPEC news.
AUGUST JOBS +22k jobs...UE rate up to 4.3% Ex-education & health care, economy LOST 24k jobs Residential construction payrolls continue to bleed lower (5 straight months). Labor market is stuck in a "malignant stasis."
If you wanted to really !/@$ Trump You'd report MUCH stronger jobs #'s than actual thru 'seasonal adjustments' You'd report softer CPI/PPI thru omission You'd pump as much liquidity into the system by any means You'd want max stock + crypto prices for a turbo wealth effect
Healthcare jobs were supposedly +66K in May and basically flat in June. This data is so fucking bad, it's unreal. And now the MAGA influencers are touting the jobs BS as a triumph. Trump fell into a trap and noone in his admin is smart or empowered enough to set him straight.
Healthcare jobs were supposedly +66K in May and basically flat in June. This data is so fucking bad, it's unreal. And now the MAGA influencers are touting the jobs BS as a triumph. Trump fell into a trap and noone in his admin is smart or empowered enough to set him straight.
Going back to this b/c I think it's important... Pinned tweet called for 🍊👑 to do 2 🔑 things: 1. Get rates ↘️ any way he could 2. Crush the wealth effect IMHO, what you're seeing as 'tariff inflation' has more to do w/wealth effect 🚀 and 'services' are the tell
Going back to this b/c I think it's important... Pinned tweet called for 🍊👑 to do 2 🔑 things: 1. Get rates ↘️ any way he could 2. Crush the wealth effect IMHO, what you're seeing as 'tariff inflation' has more to do w/wealth effect 🚀 and 'services' are the tell
Don't want to jinx this, but we're here again. Many forget how the May & June NFP reports EACH should have blown out the bond shorts. I'm watching the ZN options movement nonstop & you can see the ongoing positioning to get long bonds (rates ↘️). NFP is next Friday & w/a weak
Don't want to jinx this, but we're here again. Many forget how the May & June NFP reports EACH should have blown out the bond shorts. I'm watching the ZN options movement nonstop & you can see the ongoing positioning to get long bonds (rates ↘️). NFP is next Friday & w/a weak
Your favorite MacGruber called this in real time & was screaming at everyone parroting that 'the jobs market was stable'. It's the worst jobs mkt in 20 years! MacGruber white collar unemployment maxim is 👑 Macro take of '25. June with a negative print. Your Macro heroes = 👎
Your favorite MacGruber called this in real time & was screaming at everyone parroting that 'the jobs market was stable'. It's the worst jobs mkt in 20 years! MacGruber white collar unemployment maxim is 👑 Macro take of '25. June with a negative print. Your Macro heroes = 👎
The job market just crossed a line nobody wants to talk about. July 2025: 7.24M unemployed vs 7.18M openings → 0.99 job openings per person (first dip below 1:1 since April 2021). Back in July 2009 (peak GFC): 14.6M unemployed fought over 2.2M jobs → 6.7 people per opening.…
$AEO +38% $LULU -14%
The biggest delusion is believing the economy is doing great because the stock market is up, while almost every data point is the worst it’s been in 10+ years.
If we were truly serious about clean energy we’d be building more nuclear power plants. Not telling people they can’t cook with gas.
Sweet 🍊👑, throw a bone to your main man MacGruber tomorrow morning, and I'll be most grateful. (This appears like the admin might actually want LT rates lower and they know how to get it done - FINALLY) Massive 10-year bond short position at 4.10-4.15%. 🤞
Sweet 🍊👑, throw a bone to your main man MacGruber tomorrow morning, and I'll be most grateful. (This appears like the admin might actually want LT rates lower and they know how to get it done - FINALLY) Massive 10-year bond short position at 4.10-4.15%. 🤞
Wanted to get creative with last night's lamb leftovers (a keeper recipe) & celebrate the NFL Season kickoff game in style. And also burn off alot of nervous energy prior to tomorrow's jobs report. Making homemade pizzas w/a Greek & (CeeDee) Lamby twist.
Wanted to get creative with last night's lamb leftovers (a keeper recipe) & celebrate the NFL Season kickoff game in style. And also burn off alot of nervous energy prior to tomorrow's jobs report. Making homemade pizzas w/a Greek & (CeeDee) Lamby twist. https://t.co/lPFfBGYIvo
I could have done a beautiful NFP writeup this week & would have gotten 7 likes. Summary: - Last August, the NFP report bombed. Something in the methodology of Aug & Sept is reporting closer to accurate in RT. - May & June were absolutely fraudulent & people should go to jail.
I could have done a beautiful NFP writeup this week & would have gotten 7 likes. Summary: - Last August, the NFP report bombed. Something in the methodology of Aug & Sept is reporting closer to accurate in RT. - May & June were absolutely fraudulent & people should go to jail.
U.S. companies announced just 1,494 new jobs in August; lowest for the month since 2009; job cuts surge 39% to 85,979 #MacroEdge
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