Carl Hutton @GreenFieldData

Solana Quant Joined September 2020

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Carl Hutton @GreenFieldData

3 days ago

Add market regime awareness to our Solana model and the new most probably high for 1st quarter 2026 is $521 with a bull case of $1,535.

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My Hidden Markov Model labels the regime of the Solana market in 15 minute intervals. 8 regime labels: • Bull / Super Low Vol • Bull / Low Vol • Bull / High Vol • Bull / Super High Vol • Bear / Super Low Vol • Bear / Low Vol • Bear / High Vol • Bear / Super High Vol…

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Carl Hutton @GreenFieldData

5 days ago

Solana’s daily moves look like a Weibull distribution. If that holds, we can put numbers on risk—pick any threshold (e.g., 10%) and get daily odds, hits/year, and average wait; estimate the “1% worst day” size; and the likely biggest day over 30/90/365 days.

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Carl Hutton @GreenFieldData

7 days ago

Zoom out to 1 Yr and Active Addresses to Sol Price has a Pearson's Correlation of .608. The last 30 days it has been -.05. Price has disconnected from chain activity.

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Carl Hutton @GreenFieldData

a week ago

The Pearson correlation between Solana’s price and active addresses (excluding voting transactions) is -0.05. Something other than network use is driving the price.

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Carl Hutton @GreenFieldData

2 weeks ago

The lifetime data for Bitcoin is clear. Bitcoin does not have a power law distribution. It has a lognormal distribution. This basic statistical insight will change your price outlook.

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Carl Hutton @GreenFieldData

2 weeks ago

Bitcoin Top Model (Power-Law Decay) Predicts ~1.26× above the 111d/250×2 MA crossover. Current 350 x 2 crossover is $186K → top ≈ $235K. and trending upward. Rₙ = 1 + 7.38 · n⁻²·⁴³ , n = 4 R₄ ≈ 1.26 Ptop ≈ 1.26 × Crossover (>186K) ⇒ >$235K

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Carl Hutton @GreenFieldData

3 weeks ago

x.com/BTC_Archive/st…. Friedman was ahead of his time

Bitcoin Archive @BTC_Archive

3 weeks ago

x.com/BTC_Archive/st…. Friedman was ahead of his time

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Carl Hutton @GreenFieldData

a month ago

3,865 10 to 1 long shots at GulfStream Park in the last 8 years. Bet them all and get a negative expected value of -.55 per $2 wager. Is there a subset of these horses that will deliver value?

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Carl Hutton @GreenFieldData

a month ago

Built a Python ticket selector for Pick and Pray horse competitions: Calculates number of tickets needed per contest based on number of participants and median payouts of similar competitions. (log(0.2)/log(1-p), p=0.15–0.4) Inspired by Hellmers & Sumja’s NHC 4th/12th in 540…