Hammer Time @JPLTO_

I like people who are smart AND right. Joined October 2019

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Hammer Time @JPLTO_

2 years ago

Mag 7 is 60% of $QQQ. Personally I’d prefer not to buy $AMZN at 100x earnings when overall Nasdaq 100 ERP is deeply negative, cyclicals are screaming recession ($TEX, $F are 2), and yield blow-out that makes the 1987 analogues actually compelling. But gl

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Hammer Time @JPLTO_

2 years ago

In March, my timeline was full of macro calls for a “construction-led” recession. Multiple 🧵s like 1 below These often highlighted a reduction in building permits and a flattening in resi construction Where’d all the bearish takes based on construction / new-build data go? 🦗

Eric Basmajian @EPBResearch

3 years ago

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Hammer Time @JPLTO_

3 years ago

@BobEUnlimited 10% loss on 3yr duration AFS portfolio? Obviously, the rest of their HTM is in much worse shape (longer duration for sure) and would require a much, much larger haircut to move… Yeah, that could get ugly.

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Hammer Time @JPLTO_

3 years ago

Changing the weights methodology in January 2023 to "improve accuracy". Will re-set based only on FY '21 spending patterns. Maybe I'm a cynic, but sounds like code for tilting the weights toward disinflating items (goods) and away from inflating items (services). #inflation

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Hammer Time @JPLTO_

3 years ago

Part of the rationalization for last week's rally was "the mkt loves divided Government" Well, the unthinkable is happening. The Dems might keep the House. Worth revisiting this macro perspective. Fiscal dominance could become a 2023 story. 🔥🌍🔥

Paulo Macro @PauloMacro

3 years ago

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mondy @mondyinvest

3 years ago

$BTU fans rejoice: it is over (until episode 3, anyways) $CRN $CRN.AX #CoalTwitter @mfwarder @8750Capital

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Hammer Time @JPLTO_

3 years ago

This morning, $BTU's mgmt wiped out ~570mm in market capitalization in a 45 minute call. That comes out to $12.7m per minute, making it perhaps the most expensive phone call in human history. #coaltwitter

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Hammer Time @JPLTO_

3 years ago

It’s interesting how expensive $BTU puts are rn. On Friday just before mkt close, $18 strike 10/21 puts were trading for $1.00, for a breakeven purchase price of $17 if exercised. Outrageously cheap entry. Sold a lot of those. Really wonder who is on the other side of that trade.