JKP Weather @JkpWeather

Weather | Owner of https://t.co/spBWPJh0lK | Weather forecasting | Pictures with camera and drone | Skywarn spotter jkpweather.com Massachusetts, USA Joined August 2019

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx

3 weeks ago

Soon after the NOAA pass into #Erin, we had an AF plane go in finding pressures another 6mb lower. Waiting for recon but given the pressure now it's been dropping at a good 7-8mb/hr since we last had recon during the night. Very explosive RI

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JKP Weather @JkpWeather

4 weeks ago

Steering patterns aren’t super favorable for a solid hit from Erin, though trends have been somewhat closer. Outer Banks probably see the greatest impact in CONUS but Bahamas and Bermuda also at risk. Erin could get pretty strong offshore.

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JKP Weather @JkpWeather

a month ago

As Iona churns in the central Pacific, not much is going on in the Atlantic. Ensembles virtually silent over the next two weeks as we approach the beginning of peak season. It is worth nothing that the AI ensembles are a bit more enthusiastic, but still quiet.

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JKP Weather @JkpWeather

3 months ago

@NWSBoulder possible tornado on the ground near Lochbuie visible from airport as of 4:21 pm.

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JKP Weather @JkpWeather

6 months ago

Since late last week, we have firmly transitioned to an early spring pattern marked by drastic temperature variation, with sustained warmups interrupted by cold shots. Snow can definitely still happen in this pattern, but in between we’ll see some really nice days, like tomorrow

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JKP Weather @JkpWeather

7 months ago

The Gulf Stream, responsible for poleward warm-water transport that fuels coastal storms, is unusually far south this year. This is part of the explanation for why we’ve had so many sliders - storms follow the energy, and the energy is simply not coming up the coast this year.

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JKP Weather @JkpWeather

7 months ago

The canonical miller A nor’easter starts right there off the Outer Banks. Track is just about the best you can ask for, but a positively tilted system and not enough press from the Atlantic high means this one likely doesn’t climb up the coast.

Boston Weather Consulting (by Owen) @SNEWxCenter

7 months ago

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JKP Weather @JkpWeather

7 months ago

Obviously there’s still time for things to shift with the late week storm, but even where things are now we’re very close to a boom/bust point. Being on the NW edge of a storm can allow the deform band to sit over the area (12/16/20 an example), or if dry air wins out it can bust

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Boston Weather Consulting (by Owen) @SNEWxCenter

7 months ago

Before we get too much into next week's potential nor'easter, we need to get through this weekend's mess of a system. Looking like a decent front-end dump of snow, with 3-6" falling across a large swath of the area.

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JKP Weather @JkpWeather

7 months ago

South trends with the weekend storm - confluence in the top right of this plot moves SW which suppresses the shortwave. The storm itself is also flatter in recent model runs. While it’s likely SNE changes to rain, the more these trends continue the more front end snow falls.

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JKP Weather @JkpWeather

7 months ago

GFS basically says do it again on Thursday. I doubt we stay 100% snow for that one but could definitely pick up several inches on top of what’s already there. Blend of models isn’t terrible, would expect this to increase a bit with likely SE trends.

Boston Weather Consulting (by Owen) @SNEWxCenter

7 months ago

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JKP Weather @JkpWeather

7 months ago

For all the talk about the potential for a dry slot later in the storm (certainly possible especially away from the coast), less talked about is just how heavy snow will fall before that. Several hours of almost perfect snow growth that would exceed 1"/hr.

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JKP Weather @JkpWeather

7 months ago

Most storms tend to trend NW in the short term (convective feedback, among other processes), so I’m not super concerned about the suppression potential for Saturday. However, most of us remember last year’s storm with a monumental SE trend so shifts today might be a bit worrying.

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JKP Weather @JkpWeather

7 months ago

Originally, the weekend storm looked like a colder copy of Thursday’s storm, with a parent low riding into the lakes but snow at the onset due to a cold high. Now, that parent low isn’t modeled so far west, which means no warm air intrusion aloft. Hence the potential for all snow

Boston Weather Consulting (by Owen) @SNEWxCenter

7 months ago

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JKP Weather @JkpWeather

7 months ago

Thursday’s storm looks like a quick 2-3”, over to sleet and then some drizzle as it ends. In and out in <12 hours. Weekend storm is stronger, maybe a 4-6” type thing before again a bit of sleet/rain as it ends (pending sfc low). Next week coastal storm too far out for specifics.

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JKP Weather @JkpWeather

7 months ago

Every storm is different, but models tend to underestimate the CAD in the medium term, which would allow for more snow, and then underestimate the push of warm air in the very short term, switching over to sleet faster than expected. For now anywhere from 1 to 4” are possible.

Boston Weather Consulting (by Owen) @SNEWxCenter

7 months ago

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JKP Weather @JkpWeather

7 months ago

Barring a major shift, Thursday’s storm is looking like snow to ice to rain. However, the key is mainly the placement of a developing surface low and the associated warm air intrusion aloft. The less warm air, the more snow falls before the change.

Boston Weather Consulting (by Owen) @SNEWxCenter

7 months ago

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JKP Weather @JkpWeather

7 months ago

There hasn’t been a single model run like this with 50/50 odds of 18”+ in coastal SNE since the blizzard 3 years ago. Before that, it likely goes back to March 2018. Rarely do you see such an active storm track with some cold air, but it remains to be seen how this pans out.

Steve-O @SteveOweathaguy

7 months ago

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JKP Weather @JkpWeather

7 months ago

Really tough forecast, especially up here. Pretty weak storm with very marginal temps, which can often spell trouble. That said, the forecast below is a great first guess.

joseph martucci @jtooch07

7 months ago

Really tough forecast, especially up here. Pretty weak storm with very marginal temps, which can often spell trouble. That said, the forecast below is a great first guess.