Kevin Gordon @KevRGodon_
Director, Senior investment strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. Disclosures: https://t.co/lAYcD8j1yf New York, NY Joined August 2018-
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KBW Bank Index continues to break out to new highs this morning
The Russell Microcap Index is up by nearly 37% over the past 90 days ... incredibly sharp move
Bond market volatility is compressing quickly ... rolling 20d average of the MOVE Index is at its lowest since the beginning of 2022
The S&P 600's forward 12m profit margin is breaking out and at its highest since October 2022
NVIDIA is 7.8% of the S&P 500's market cap
2y inflation swap at its highest since November 2022
2y10y Treasury spread is rising again and at its highest since late April ... next stop is highest since February 2022
AI looks to be contributing to higher unemployment. The @stlouisfed found that occupations with higher AI exposure rates saw much larger increases in unemployment rates from 2022 to 2025
61% of NYSE stocks are above their 200d moving average ... right near a YTD high
Prices paid component in Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index spiked in August ... highest since February 2023
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Capex continued to plunge in August (6m outlook improved a touch but remained in contraction) Source: Bloomberg
The Conference Board’s labor differential made a new cycle low in August. Chart via @business
Looking forward to joining #MoneyMovers on @CNBC today shortly after 11am ET
Here is the special questions list for the August Philly Fed Non-manufacturing Index. Compared to May, firms expect to receive higher prices (for goods and services sold) and a slowdown in their employees’ compensation growth. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased from 4.8%…
Weak Philly Fed Services Index in August … strength in new orders and sales, but both employment components fell into contraction; prices paid back to highest since April
The 10y real yield’s post-pandemic range has been more consistent with what we saw in the cycle before the financial crisis
Evercore ISI: “We would expect the risks to central bank independence and plausible looming shift in the reaction function to show up in a steeper yield curve, higher inflation compensation and a higher inflation risk premium…”
Optimism in Canada is fading quickly per the latest @Gallup poll … 27% say the economy is getting better (a new post-pandemic low)
2y30y Treasury spread highest/steepest since January 2022
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