Douglas @MM_Tmacrotrader
Macro Trading, Flow Following, Deep Learning Model Building. https://t.co/Lm0ypLCjn1 appliedmmt.com Joined August 2014-
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I'm old enough to remember when the GOP was the party for lower taxes. They're now celebrating one of the largest tax increase in history. Crazy how times have changed.
I'm old enough to remember when the GOP was the party for lower taxes. They're now celebrating one of the largest tax increase in history. Crazy how times have changed.
I'm old enough to remember when the GOP was the party for lower taxes. They're now celebrating one of the largest tax increase in history. Crazy how times have changed.
I'm old enough to remember when the GOP was the party for lower taxes. They're now celebrating one of the largest tax increase in history. Crazy how times have changed.
Literally the fate of the US economy in the hands of the SCOTUS. Trump Wins and this cycle tops sometime in 2026 and SHTF. Trump loses and this bull run likely has legs for years to come.
Literally the fate of the US economy in the hands of the SCOTUS. Trump Wins and this cycle tops sometime in 2026 and SHTF. Trump loses and this bull run likely has legs for years to come.
Initial claims slightly above expectations, however no sign of a deteriorating business cycle. If initial claims were rising with bank credit falling, that'd be bad. But initial claims trending sideways while bank credit is rising, that means we're fine for now.
Your models fail despite your backtesting success because the macro economy is an ever evolving complex system. 50 years of historical data and we've only scratched the surface of what possible system states the economy could find itself in. 1/3
Every time I see someone post a chart like this "worst data since <insert scary time>" I immediately look at what happened in the year or two following that last time the data got that bad. In this case, all things being equal, this chart looks incredibly bullish to me.
Every time I see someone post a chart like this "worst data since <insert scary time>" I immediately look at what happened in the year or two following that last time the data got that bad. In this case, all things being equal, this chart looks incredibly bullish to me.
The Goal: Build a deep learning neural network using only sectoral balances to predict the unemployment rate. Why? To see if core MMT data can explain unemployment and validate a deep learning architecture for further macro & market analysis. An MMT Research 🧵 1/11
Every time I see someone post a chart like this "worst data since <insert scary time>" I immediately look at what happened in the year or two following that last time the data got that bad. In this case, all things being equal, this chart looks incredibly bullish to me.
Every time I see someone post a chart like this "worst data since <insert scary time>" I immediately look at what happened in the year or two following that last time the data got that bad. In this case, all things being equal, this chart looks incredibly bullish to me.
Going 🔴 Live @ 6:00 pm et Discussing the process of going from flows/data to investment strategy through the MMT lens & more! Any Questions/Topics I should cover? Reply with them below, I'll do my best to discuss them on stream!
Why inflation tells us where were at in the business cycle: This video gets a bit technical, but its important detail for understanding the causal impact of inflation on the credit/business cycle.
Trace the source of that 'risk capital' back to its origin and you'll see it all comes back to fiscal. The US just spends more. This is why US capitalism is so successful - were willing to foot the bill for capitalisms 1000 failures just to find the 1 society changing success.
Trace the source of that 'risk capital' back to its origin and you'll see it all comes back to fiscal. The US just spends more. This is why US capitalism is so successful - were willing to foot the bill for capitalisms 1000 failures just to find the 1 society changing success.
Massively Bullish.
It's hard to get an endogenous end to a cycle without a sustained acceleration of inflation. The feedback loop looks like this: Growth -> more investment/money -> more demand -> more profits -> more growth but also -> higher markups -> higher wages -> rising inflation -> slowing
Tariff Ruling & the Fate of the Trump Credit Bubble in the Hands of SCOTUS
Three years since the Inflation Reduction Act passed. You cant make this stuff up 😅 And no, for those who can't take a joke, I don't think the IRA was the primary driver of brining inflation down, but it does go to show more fiscal doesn't necessarily mean more inflation.
This is the most important outcome for the economic destiny of Trump 2.0. Ironically Trump wins if he loses. Were at a $129B refund if tariffs are overturned today. Assuming this goes to SCOTUS it'd likely grow to ~$500B before it gets refunded. Huge macro implications!
This is the most important outcome for the economic destiny of Trump 2.0. Ironically Trump wins if he loses. Were at a $129B refund if tariffs are overturned today. Assuming this goes to SCOTUS it'd likely grow to ~$500B before it gets refunded. Huge macro implications! https://t.co/ybsUvqiKnG
Guy has me blocked but if you think the impact of rates was greater than the impact of the largest fiscal drain in history on inflation then you're just bad at math. The US economy saw the largest ever net financial drain from priv to govt in March/April 2022. ~$700B in taxes,
Always puts a wry smile on my face when I see MAGA unwittingly acknowledging MMT is right. Get rid of the Fed, set a constant rate, and let's move on from the monetarist stupidity we've had to deal with for decades.
Always puts a wry smile on my face when I see MAGA unwittingly acknowledging MMT is right. Get rid of the Fed, set a constant rate, and let's move on from the monetarist stupidity we've had to deal with for decades.
Talking what's next for rates & the yield curve if trump takes control of the Fed. tldr: Rates will collapse.
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