Julian J @MacroPea
Trader & Analyst | Since 2010, delivering daily pre-market insights & strategies trusted by hedge fund managers and professional traders. macro-pea.com Berlin Joined September 2024-
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3 pitfalls in Europe’s ‘recovery’ that could ambush your trades: 1️⃣ New tariffs creeping up like hidden taxes on exports. 2️⃣ ECB’s slow-motion cuts that may underwhelm markets. 3️⃣ Germany’s fragile export model if global demand buckles. Tip? Don’t ignore cross-border risk.
Market moves are swirling like storm clouds, and they’re coming in fast. 3-Month TONA December 2026 led the drop with a -0.0925 plunge to 98.9125, pushing implied yields higher, while 30-Day Fed Funds December 2026 surged by +0.085 to 96.26, hinting at lower implied rates. Over…
Picture the markets as an orchestra: Japan’s 5-year JGB z-score roaring at +4.15 is like the trumpets heralding a big reveal. Gold’s gleaming solo—+2.62 on the 1-day scale—adds a bold flourish, and Europe’s short rates bring a softer, negative z-score harmony. It’s a surprising…
It’s like a global orchestra where the violinist breaks into jazz, the drummer clings to rock, and the bassist grabs an espresso mid-set. The ECB slashes rates again while the Fed shows its best poker face, and Japan finally slips the leash of negative rates. Canada defies…
The world’s central banks are marching to clashing beats. Australia’s RBA slips in a rate cut, Europe tiptoes toward easing even as optimism flickers, the Fed stubbornly holds its hawkish stance, and Japan edges away from easy money like testing chilly water. Meanwhile, UK wages…
Short-term futures in a tug-of-war: 🇦🇺 cuts vs. 🇺🇸 hawkishness Volatility spikes across TONA, Fed Funds & SONIA ⚡️📈
Brace yourself—global yields are rocking the boat. Canada’s 10Y just rang the 2.0 z-score alarm, vaulting us into a high-vol regime (PCA soared from 0.58 to 0.73). It’s like discovering your mild-mannered neighbor can actually throw a wild party. Meanwhile, Japan’s 5Y yield hit…
Central banks are marching to their own beat, and the dissonance is loud. Japan’s exit from negative rates powers the yen, Europe slips below 2%, and Canada keeps cutting even as jobs grow. Meanwhile, the Fed treads cautiously, leaving the dollar in limbo, all under the shadow of…
Today’s short-term rates look like a cautious carousel: - 3-Month EuriBor (December 2029) slipped by 0.060 to 97.565 - 3-Month SONIA (March 2028) drifted lower by 0.010 to 96.125 - 3-Month TONA nudged up 0.025, hitting 98.8925 - 30-Day Fed Funds (April 2026) jumped 0.085 to…
Global markets are lurching like an orchestra out of sync. In the U.S., the Fed stands pat on rates—wary of rising corporate delinquencies and inflationary flare-ups. Europe scrambles for rate cuts that could drop below 2% by 2026, trying to guard against a potential 1.5% GDP hit…
💰 The question "what do you trade?" is now a problem. If I say bonds, they think I’m a boomer. If I say FX, they think I’m a gambler. If I say macro, they think I work at a bank. Now I just say I trade global market shifts. They think I have insider info. 📉📈
🚨 Markets at War: The Fed's Patience vs. The ECB's Panic 🚨 Global rates are diverging. The yen is surging. Trade wars are back. 📉 Will the Great Divergence trigger a market fracture?
Welcome to a market waltz where Japanese bonds, gold, and USD/JPY all seem to have switched dance partners. The short end of Japan’s yield curve is kicking up a storm: 1-year JGB yields show a 20-day z-score of 1.66, the 2-year hits 2.56, and the 5-year sits at 1.61—backed by a…
Welcome to the global economy’s dinner party—where every dish is on its own agenda. Europe keeps slicing rates as though the breadbasket might run empty, Japan is tossing out its longtime negative-rate recipe, and Canada’s abrupt easing arrives like a surprise side dish. Then…
The Eurozone’s economic outlook resembles a patchwork quilt: Germany’s services PMI rebounds to a six-month high of 52.5, while France drifts below 50. The bloc’s Composite PMI sits at 50.2—just nudging into growth. Meanwhile, industrial producer prices inch up 0.4%, suggesting…
US Economy: Resilient or Just Plain Stubborn? The latest data points are in—and they’re putting up a fight. January’s ADP report surprised forecasts with 183,000 new private jobs, showing that employers are still hiring despite economic crosswinds. Meanwhile, the services PMI…
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