#MacroStrategy | Markets research | Data-driven investing and trading.
Ex-central banker | Ex-multilateral banker | Fund analyst.
No Financial Advice. Washington, DCJoined February 2025
Ok, after the spring meetings of the IMF-World Bank, I am back.
Equity markets in Europe and US equity index futures are in retreat after political turmoil in Germany and worries about the trade war dampened sentiment, although Asia had a positive session.
🧨Some EU central banking and supervisory officials are questioning whether they can still rely on the Fed to provide dollar funding in times of market stress, six people familiar with the matter said told @Reuters 🧨 reuters.com/markets/some-e…
#FED has a lot of confidence about inflation getting back to long-term targets. They even say that their simulations include full retaliation of trade partners.
Well, they rose inflation projections, but they are still expecting two rate cuts.
I consider that the Fed is stuck,…
The selling side of the financial markets is misleading if we ignore the macroeconomic environment. Neither of these ratings will achieve their objective if current volatility does not decrease. Even if that is that is the case, I am not that confident on these ratings.
There is a divorce between the company $Tesla and the ticket $TSLA.
The second was victim of speculation. It is far from the fundamentals of other huge companies. I expected more declines on this ticket.
@gainify_io
JP Morgan changes the rating of US stocks from Overweight to Range Bound.
The investment bank expects U.S. stocks to fluctuate within a specific range, consistently hitting highs and lows without breaking a clear trend.
#Macro#Vix#Rotation
As the US market experiences a sell-off, capital rotates toward other markets.
▶️China and Europe are on the rise and benefiting from this shift. A dynamic rebalancing of global markets.
▶️Is there still upside potential in those markets? I think so.
$DAL
EPS guidance for Q1: $0.30-$0.50 vs. $0.70-$1.00.
The statement of Delta: “The outlook has been impacted by the recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty, driving softness in Domestic demand”
I advised my colleagues to hold or short the market many weeks ago.
As a macro strategist, my work is to analyze aggregate real-financial dynamics and flag risks to the fund managers.
Now I expect more falls, but I expected a bounce on Q2.
I am still waiting any tax cut news.
Even if stock markets react negatively to negative sentiment:
▪️The declines are steep (~15%) but short-lived (~100 days).
▪️The recovery is rapid in the next few quarters.
This is the case if there is not a recession and my team, and I do not forecast a recession at the moment.
278 Followers 865 FollowingLily is an environmentally-conscious nature lover dedicated to protecting the Earth. Her actions and advocacy inspire others to work together for a sustainable
6 Followers 370 FollowingTrader(Al Mkts), Fixed Income/Macro, $SPX Aficionado, long/ short every tick since 1998. On the self-improvement journey. Peekabo000 TM Warning originator
3K Followers 663 FollowingPM - Global Head of Intra & Cross Market Orgy Trading. Forbes 69 under 69. TED Speaker in Optimized Chaos. Allergic to charlatans. PhD in Deez Nutzsonomics.
25K Followers 291 Following@HiMountResearch founder | Teaching Econ/Finance at @insidewlc | Urban farmer & vintner
"All models are wrong - some are useful"
10K Followers 710 FollowingPersonal CFO to top performers in tech & business @ Quadrant Capital • Instructor of Tax Planning @ UCLA PFP • Planning. Equity. Investing. Tax. • Tweets≠Advice
57K Followers 1K Following6500+ members in six years. Formerly known as Microefutures/EquitiesETC trading room. Home to JJ @vwaptrader1 & others. Visit https://t.co/LIjtp6YY4T.
35K Followers 2K Following1) If you have no edge, correct position size is 'don't buy”. 2) Position sizing is determined by downside. 3) All great investing records employed leverage.
3K Followers 184 FollowingGEX Stream on Discord + Custom Sierra Chart studies. Order Flow, Gamma Exposure, Internals, Trade Signals. Ran by a full-time trader.
$ES_F $SPX $SPY
12K Followers 307 FollowingProviding institutions and individuals access to fully automated algorithmic crypto portfolios with institutional-grade infrastructure | CEO @robuxio_com
178K Followers 1K FollowingDetailed equity research and balanced portfolio insights for serious investors who want analysis over hype. Invest with good reason here.
347K Followers 2K FollowingFounder & President, Forest for the Trees (FFTT). Author of "The Mr. X Interviews, Volumes I & II.” I never solicit via DM's. RT not endorsements.
10K Followers 1K FollowingBecome the best-informed investor in your circle. Unlock AI Stock Analysis & Wall Street-Grade Data. Visit https://t.co/beWLA79AO4 to sign up for FREE today!
4K Followers 967 FollowingTactical Macro Specialists. For more info on investor positioning, tactical asset allocation recommendations or to trial the research, email [email protected]
64K Followers 13 FollowingDevelop profitable trading strategies, build a systematic trading process, and trade your ideas with Python—even if you’ve never done it before.
903 Followers 30 FollowingProviding the latest updates and news on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) that aims to replace the London Interbank Rate (LIBOR)
203K Followers 1K FollowingDir. of Global Macro @Fidelity. Student of history, chart maker, cyclist, cook. Helping investors break thru the clutter. Views are mine. https://t.co/9Pn7wGwMzp
4K Followers 1 FollowingNQ Stats provides free actionable statistical insights and market analytics tailored for the NASDAQ-100 E-mini ( $NQ ). Created by @ProbableChris
3K Followers 2K FollowingYour no-code quant solution. Design stock and ETF strategies with FactSet data. US, Canada, UK and Europe markets. Starting at $299/year. Learn more ⬇️
9K Followers 4K FollowingA simple, unbiased and trusted tool for traders and investors to follow the directional bias and signals of credit spreads at https://t.co/n0jzXFdQCL.
57K Followers 274 FollowingProfessional equity and option trade ideas with in-depth research based on 3-pronged approach: Fundamentals, Technicals and Options Activity
84K Followers 387 FollowingCo-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, a global macroeconomic research firm (@MI2Partners). | Creator of MacroCapture, a platform for savvy investors.
1.2M Followers 2K FollowingFounder/CEO Global Macro Investor, @RealVision. Figuring things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 & the Exponential Age. Not a guru. Get my free roadmap— click 🔗
No recent Favorites. New Favorites will appear here.