Peter BreIezrin @MakingaMagreth
Chief Global Strategist and Director of Research @bcaresearch formerly with Goldman Sachs & IMF bcaresearch.com Hilbert space Joined August 2016-
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Can it go higher?
Thank you for your attention to this matter:
Wind and solar has accounted for about 90% of the incremental increase in US electricity generating capacity over the past year. What is going to power all these data centers being built?
I hope all that capex pays off
More TDS. The fact of the matter is that cow’s milk contains around 70 micrograms per liter of aluminum and hence should be rightfully subject to 50% tariffs🐄 🇺🇸 🐮
More TDS. The fact of the matter is that cow’s milk contains around 70 micrograms per liter of aluminum and hence should be rightfully subject to 50% tariffs🐄 🇺🇸 🐮
To be fair, Putin knows a lot about how to rig an election.
Is AI boosting productivity? At least so far, it’s not visible in the data. Productivity in Q2 was about where the CBO predicted it would be five years ago.
The bigotry of low economic expectations: Following today’s “strong” retail sales print for July, and upward revisions to June, real retail sales are still only flat for the year. They should have grown briskly given the tariff front-running.
This chart makes my point even more clearly:
This chart makes my point even more clearly: https://t.co/nMnwSzrVPw
American Companies and American Consumers Pay the Cost of American Tariffs. Free Trade with Free Nations🇺🇸reason.com/2025/08/05/for…
Japan: You said “No extra tariffs” US: I said “No, extra tariffs”
Data center construction is less than 0.2% of US GDP. A lot of the hyperscaler capex consists of equipment and chips that are not produced in the US. Thus, much of what is added to “I” in the GDP accounts must get deducted via “M” (imports).
This could change, of course, if AI starts to meaningfully boost productivity. So far, however, the impact has been fairly modest:
Behind every insight is a story. Here’s ours. We’re excited to launch The BCA Way—the first video in a new series offering a behind-the-scenes look at who we are, what we do, and the people driving it all. From our research philosophy to our team culture, this series will share…
According to the IMF, internal trade barriers within the EU have a much more constricting effect on trade than anything that Trump has cooked up.
Contrary to popular perception, human evolution accelerated dramatically about 10,000 years ago. That is not very surprising: Larger populations and radical shifts in how people lived would have created many new pathways for natural selection.
Contrary to popular perception, human evolution accelerated dramatically about 10,000 years ago. That is not very surprising: Larger populations and radical shifts in how people lived would have created many new pathways for natural selection.
Final sales to private domestic purchasers: 2024 Q3: 3.4% 2024 Q4: 2.9% 2025 Q1: 1.9% 2025: Q2: 1.2%
Today’s update of the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker showed that wage growth for job switchers has fallen below that of job stayers. With labor shortages now largely gone, unemployment is at risk of rising.
A repeat of Liberation Day, except this time financial markets aren’t taking Trump seriously… but because they aren’t taking him seriously, Trump has little incentive to back down… which means that markets will have to take him (semi) seriously.
We all know who’s next
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