BCA Research @bcaresearch
BCA Research is the essential source of macro insight for the world's investors. The leading independent provider of macro investment research. Founded 1949. bcaresearch.com Montreal, Quebec Joined August 2010-
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BCA Research retweeted
The number of people who are not in the labor force but still want a job rose by 179K in August. Had these folks been counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate would have increased from 7.6% to 7.8%.
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BCA Research retweeted
With the August data and the recent revisions, US nonfarm payroll growth has now fallen below 1% on a YoY basis. Historically, that has been an excellent recessionary signal. The race is on: Fed rate cuts versus a dangerous weakening in labor market momentum.
BCA Research retweeted
Sometimes, the answer is simple for the #dollar. Just KISS.
BCA Research retweeted
Peter Berezin, Chefstratege von BCA Research @bcaresearch, im Interview mit @CGisiger: «Die Börsen sind anfällig für eine plötzliche Korrektur» themarket.ch/makro-maerkte/…
BCA Research retweeted
The US job vacancy rate falling below the unemployment rate made headlines today, but the true comparison is with unemployment EX TEMPORARY LAYOFFS. Why? Because unlike other unemployed, those on temp layoff are NOT LOOKING FOR WORK. So the true gap isn't closed. It's still 0.5%!
BCA Research retweeted
After today's JOLTS release US labor demand still exceeded supply by 1 million jobs (in July) and that size of gap is too big to disappear in the next few months. So, we must continue to think of and analyze the US economy as 'supply constrained'...
BCA Research retweeted
My personal invite to BCA's annual conference in New York on October 22. youtu.be/sPBeKyT1U3k?si… Sign up here: bcaresearch.com/marketing/the-…
BCA Research retweeted
The JOLTS measure of job openings fell in July. Looking to the next report, the real-time data from Indeed and LinkUp on job openings improved in August, hinting at a possible rebound next month. That said, we are clearly near the kink in the Beveridge curve.
BCA Research retweeted
The Chicago Fed updated its "big data" estimates of US retail sales this morning, and reassuringly, they showed a stronger trend than had been previously estimated.
BCA Research retweeted
UPDATE: Polymarket odds of an OPEC+ crude output hike this weekend surged this morning after a Reuters report that the coalition is considering a production increase. #OPEC #Oilprices
UPDATE: Polymarket odds of an OPEC+ crude output hike this weekend surged this morning after a Reuters report that the coalition is considering a production increase. #OPEC #Oilprices https://t.co/ybRVS40lw5
India 'geopolitically promiscuous' in the face of US pressure, says global strategist | The Business @Geo_papic says this meeting is important because it sends a signal to the U.S. that "the world doesn't owe it anything," and that "countries do have other alternatives." He says…
From yesterday's BCA Live & Unfiltered (BLU), Chief Global Fixed Income Strategist @RobertTimper1 discusses what is unsettling the bond market.
BCA Research retweeted
The broad-trade weighted USD has broken below the pattern of higher lows and higher highs (Chart). Despite US companies' robust profitability and strong foreign inflows into US equities, the greenback has so far failed to rebound meaningfully. This validates my thesis from…
BCA Research retweeted
One of the great things about working for a 76-year old firm is finding out how many people's lives @bcaresearch has touched in its eight decades! Here is me bumping into the GREAT-nephew of Hamilton Bolton, founder from back in 1949. I had a great time with Andrew in Montreal!
BCA Research retweeted
Before and after:
BCA Research retweeted
If these folks had been counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate would have risen by 0.3 percentage points over the past year.
BCA Research retweeted
That $80 quadrillion that Trump has said foreigners will invest in the US can't come fast enough. Manufacturing construction contracted again in July.
BCA Research retweeted
NVIDIA leading the NASDAQ lower, with the former now trading below its 40-day moving average. Weakest technical position based on this measure since late-April.
BCA Research retweeted
After six subsequent months of accelerating OPEC+ production hikes, traders on Polymarket are giving only a 9% chance that OPEC+ will announce another hike when it meets again this weekend. #OPEC #Oilprices
BCA Research retweeted
The Alpha Report Is Out
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