Shanghai Macro Strategist @ShanghaiMacro
China strategist. Author of bi-weekly China Macro Watch. Mission: bridge the information gap between the East and the West. Contact: [email protected] Joined April 2022-
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To be clear, policymakers have no desire to crush this rally, which they have long hoped to see. What troubles them is the pace—too sharp a run-up risks fueling speculation and mania. The real policy objective is to smooth the rally’s trajectory, not reverse it. For long-term…
To be clear, policymakers have no desire to crush this rally, which they have long hoped to see. What troubles them is the pace—too sharp a run-up risks fueling speculation and mania. The real policy objective is to smooth the rally’s trajectory, not reverse it. For long-term…
Another chart worth investors’ attention: if Chinese risk assets extend their rally, it could spark a “panic” among allocators who’ve long been underweight China.
China has quietly surpassed Europe to become the best-performing major market in 2025, defying persistent macro challenges and widespread skepticism.
President Trump, you missed a historic opportunity to be the first US President to stand atop Tiananmen Square and commemorate the world’s victory over Fascism together with China and Russia—America’s indispensable allies in World War II. But this post is also fair in that…
President Trump, you missed a historic opportunity to be the first US President to stand atop Tiananmen Square and commemorate the world’s victory over Fascism together with China and Russia—America’s indispensable allies in World War II. But this post is also fair in that…
Russia has been at war with Ukraine and, by extension, the West—yet Trump is openly courting Putin. India, once drifting steadily closer to Washington, has instead been alienated by the Trump administration and is pivoting to the East. And while China and India only recently…
Russia has been at war with Ukraine and, by extension, the West—yet Trump is openly courting Putin. India, once drifting steadily closer to Washington, has instead been alienated by the Trump administration and is pivoting to the East. And while China and India only recently…
While the Nasdaq is down 1%, the KWEB ETF tracking Chinese tech is up 1%, with Alibaba surging 10%. This suggests that Chinese equities are increasingly capable of decoupling from global risk-off sentiment and generating independent strength. As the rally extends, global…
Absolutely agree! The stark contrast between inflation dynamics in China and the US underscores a deeper truth: central bank independence is a flawed idea. In practice, central bank policy has always been shaped, constrained, and directed by political forces—whether through…
Absolutely agree! The stark contrast between inflation dynamics in China and the US underscores a deeper truth: central bank independence is a flawed idea. In practice, central bank policy has always been shaped, constrained, and directed by political forces—whether through…
China’s State Council has announced that by 2027, the adoption rate of next-generation smart devices and AI agents will exceed 70%, rising to over 90% by 2030. For context, the State Council issued the New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021–2035) in 2020, setting a…
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index surged past 3,800, while daily A-share turnover topped 2 trillion yuan for the eighth consecutive session—a new record. Even more striking, the STAR 50, China’s hard-tech benchmark covering sectors like semiconductors, jumped nearly 10%. FOMO…
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index surged past 3,800, while daily A-share turnover topped 2 trillion yuan for the eighth consecutive session—a new record. Even more striking, the STAR 50, China’s hard-tech benchmark covering sectors like semiconductors, jumped nearly 10%. FOMO…
The scariest aspect of the ongoing A-share rally is that it has unfolded organically—despite widespread skepticism and the well-recognized lack of meaningful policy support from Beijing. This is characteristically different from the post-Politburo surge in September last year.…
With the Shanghai Composite Index surging to decade highs, FOMO sentiment is clearly rising among onshore retail investors. Attention has quickly turned to households’ excess savings, which remain abundant since the pandemic. Historically, A-share bull markets have been fueled…
Onshore investor sentiment has turned increasingly exuberant. Today, the Shanghai Composite Index climbed to a 10-year high, while the total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time. These milestones reinforce our conviction that a bull…
Onshore investor sentiment has turned increasingly exuberant. Today, the Shanghai Composite Index climbed to a 10-year high, while the total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time. These milestones reinforce our conviction that a bull…
As we anticipated in recent weeks, China’s economic fundamentals are showing further signs of deterioration, driven by Beijing’s efforts to curb supply in a demand-driven deflationary environment. July data: Consumption: +3.7% YoY (vs. 4.6% expected) Fixed asset investment…
As we anticipated in recent weeks, China’s economic fundamentals are showing further signs of deterioration, driven by Beijing’s efforts to curb supply in a demand-driven deflationary environment. July data: Consumption: +3.7% YoY (vs. 4.6% expected) Fixed asset investment…
China’s new bank loans in July turned negative again, reaffirming the deepening demand weakness. This outcome is hardly surprising. As noted in an earlier post, Beijing’s newly launched anti-involution campaign is likely curbing corporate credit appetite, while household credit…
China’s new bank loans in July turned negative again, reaffirming the deepening demand weakness. This outcome is hardly surprising. As noted in an earlier post, Beijing’s newly launched anti-involution campaign is likely curbing corporate credit appetite, while household credit… https://t.co/LLharQDawh
It appears that Chinese policymakers may prioritize “increasing consumption’s share of GDP” as a key objective in the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan. Zheng Xinli, former deputy director of the Central Policy Research Office, outlined the key directions of the 15th Five-Year Plan…
On July 28, we released a note titled "On the Verge of a Paradigm Shift: A Deflationary Bull Market." For years, deflation has been the macro theme guiding our China investment strategy—our North Star. But what if that star no longer points the way? What if a bull market can…
Will this be enough to reinvigorate China's AI narrative, which has clearly lost momentum in recent months? Judging by today’s market reaction — with Alibaba surging 7% — investors seem to think so.
Will this be enough to reinvigorate China's AI narrative, which has clearly lost momentum in recent months? Judging by today’s market reaction — with Alibaba surging 7% — investors seem to think so.
My earlier post on the potential simultaneous decline in credit demand from both the real estate and manufacturing sectors provides a fundamental explanation for the recent collapse in fixed asset investment growth.
My earlier post on the potential simultaneous decline in credit demand from both the real estate and manufacturing sectors provides a fundamental explanation for the recent collapse in fixed asset investment growth. https://t.co/zsbSmqlUmR
This is the result of Beijing’s renewed enforcement of the Eight-Point Regulation, which has cast a chilling effect over the restaurant industry, as government employees now avoid dining out altogether for fear of being accused of bureaucratic extravagance.
This is the result of Beijing’s renewed enforcement of the Eight-Point Regulation, which has cast a chilling effect over the restaurant industry, as government employees now avoid dining out altogether for fear of being accused of bureaucratic extravagance. https://t.co/hdtjhiRs9Y
Today’s surge in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies appears to be driven by news that the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) held a study session on cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. The development has fueled speculation that the…
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