Callum Thomas @Callum_Thomas
Head of Research, Founder: @topdowncharts Global Macro & Asset Allocation Research (tweets = not advice) NOTE: I will never DM you -- beware of scammers. chartstorm.info Queenstown, New Zealand Joined May 2009-
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The flows show a cycle of hype and doubt The current correction may just be a shakeout on the way to a renewed cycle of hype Yet a formidable wall of worry still faces markets (resurgence risk, fiscal, (geo)politics, expensive valuations, monetary headwinds..)
Everyone talks about "Sell in May" BUT ...almost no one talks about what to 𝘽𝙪𝙮 *Defensives* tend to do very well from May through Oct More charts on this Effect: chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-ch…
craving a dark beer this evening 🍻🕶️ must be the colder temperatures 🥶 as winter is approaching down here in the Southern Hemisphere
In Macro and Markets, even for so-called surprises and shocks, the clues are almost always there for those who are willing to look for them. e.g. what pressures are building up, where is the crowd (where are they not), what are the technicals doing, where are the ripples...
Conventional wisdom very often starts in brilliance and ends in absurdity.
Even if inflation comes down to the Fed's target, the long-term rate of inflation is set to stay elevated (even drift a little higher). In lieu of a deflationary shock (e.g. recession), higher-for-longer must be the base case. @topdowncharts $FED $MACRO $TNX $TLT
Asset Class Returns in April -Commodities + Cash up -everything else down --REITS and US stocks down the most --higher yielding fixed income less bad as total returns helped by higher running yields YTD is quite a mixed bag...
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I had a rough week this week. It's 11:27pm and I'm still working. One company had cash problems... (ie running out of it). Another had a key person resign. My best bud had to go into the hospital, and I got sick. Ya know... just a real kick in the... I share this because it's…
@Callum_Thomas Good luck to you...just getting our summer rolling up north!
Can't find good Value opportunities in the Stockmarket? Then look into *relative value* ...some incredible setups here Detail + outlook: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-the…
Everyone talks about "Sell in May" BUT ...almost no one talks about what to 𝘽𝙪𝙮 *Defensives* tend to do very well from May through Oct More charts on this Effect: chartstorm.info/p/off-topic-ch…
@Callum_Thomas Tend to agree. Nothing like a good pint of Guiness down the pub on a winter's evening.
Call for 2024- Bloomberg starts allowing pop up ads on the terminal from Deliveroo et. Al. Offers an ad-free version for an extra 10 C notes a month.
@Callum_Thomas Two sides of the same coin, in my view. Voted for deficits as it's the originator...
Are the same
@Callum_Thomas Sticky hands. Nothing worse than that
@Callum_Thomas Sticky inflation in the short term, sticky deficits in the long term
@SpencerHakimian @Callum_Thomas Sticky deficits cause sticky inflation.
@Callum_Thomas It’s the same. Sticky deficits = sticky inflation.
Conceptually, this could be the best twitter account theme ever. Tech Ponzis and the homes they’ve created…
Peloton, who's stock is now down 87%. This is where the CEO lives now h/t @Lizatthebeach