Macro Charts @MacroCharts
30 years in markets. Combine charts and proprietary Core Models. Fund Manager. Strategic Advisor to Global Funds and Family Offices. macrocharts.com Info / Services: Joined April 2019-
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MacroCharts Research is LIVE! Report #1 will be up soon – with a FULL review of Global Markets. Subscribers will get an email as soon as the publication is up. Markets are getting interesting! THANK YOU for all the support – have a great weekend! 🔗research.macrocharts.com
A PERSONAL ANNOUNCEMENT Finally after all these years, the time has come. Launching in *two days*... Full info here: macrocharts.com
Core Systems extremely oversold: • Plunged since triggering Sell mid/late March. • One of the fastest drops in history. • Watching closely for turn UP. • IF confirmed, look for "A" bottom and potential *sharp* retracement bounce lasting 1-2 weeks – watch key supports for…
Thoughts on Markets: A LOT of speculative froth in Commodities now. The risk of a sharp unwind is rapidly increasing... For instance, Call buying in SLV near the highest ever – priors led to sharp drawdowns. Potential major topping candles in progress for Gold + Silver today,…
Core Systems at/near Major Sell signals – with *significant* room to decline: • Critical shift is underway for Bond Yields (higher). • Weakness already visible in Rate-sensitive Equities (downside leaders). • Tech Positioning extremely crowded – vulnerable to a sharp unwind.
From JPM: • Momentum crowding flashing RED at 99.8%ile – fastest increase ever. • Last seen at the peak of 2000 Tech Bubble. • Equity investor positioning near prior highs. • Momentum often becomes crowded – leading to inevitable momentum crash. Stay nimble.
For the record – this is how the November bottom looked like in my systems: • Core Models were at/more extreme than the OCT 2022 low. • At the time, was leaning towards a seasonal year-end rally. *This recovery has far exceeded my expectations (to say the least). Thoughts on…
A possible final flush is underway now: • Oversold line remains ideal target – not there yet. • Will update in time – Good luck out there.
A possible final flush is underway now: • Oversold line remains ideal target – not there yet. • Will update in time – Good luck out there.
Haven't been able to post recently, focused on clients & navigating this properly. Recently came to the view markets are walking through a minefield. Current trend, volatility, positioning, sentiment and price action rank extremely poorly and getting worse. Resembles 2018, the…
Core Risk Models remain on a major Sell signal – with *significant* room to decline: • Base case: more Volatility into later Q3. • Watch Core Model behavior *closely* for eventual Buy signals. • Wait for the dust to settle – a BIG opportunity could be on the other side.
Widespread weakness: • Since the 2021 Top, similar weakness was seen *after* Stocks had already peaked. • It was *too early* to Buy. • Waiting for stabilization & strength was *much more effective*. Patience is critical here.
A critically important change may be triggering in Stocks: Yesterday's sharp decline broke the S&P's longest low-Volatility streak in years. Many similar breaks ended with some big Volatility spikes & Stock declines. This week's break is *timely* AND seems related to the many…
The Cheapest Hedge You Have Ever Seen “US stock bulls have grown so confident in the market that the cost of buying protection against a 5% dip in the next YEAR has fallen to what BofA strategist Ben Bowler is calling the ‘cheapest you likely have ever seen.’”
While everyone chased Semis/AI/Memes to the moon again (and may have already topped), I've been working closely w clients on Chinese Stock exposure. Could be a big opportunity developing. Lots of time left in the year... plenty of room for surprises. Will share charts in time...
Last time Tech flows were this high marked the peak of the Meme Stock Bubble (1Q21). The same Low-quality Stocks were squeezed higher recently and now show signs of exhaustion/downside reversal the last few days. Watch closely.
Volatility is likely to rise from here. The S&P has gone 37 days without a 1% decline – last seen at the NOV 2021 Top. Many similar streaks ended with some big Volatility spikes. Watch closely for the first 1% down day – it could mark another important turn in Stocks.
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@MacroCharts Congrats; all the best with your new venture!
@MacroCharts See you there! Look forward to reading it!
@jlbraga @MacroCharts @AlexWolwacz também vai nessa pegada.
Eu nunca fui grafista pero que las hay las hay. Todo mundo sabe que gosto um pouco de estudar quant, fatores de estilo e coisas assim que, convenhamos, se aproxima da AT tradicional. Mas tem um cara que combina tudo isso e eu gosto, acompanho faz MUITO tempo. É o @MacroCharts:
A PERSONAL ANNOUNCEMENT Finally after all these years, the time has come. Launching in *two days*... Full info here: macrocharts.com
@MacroCharts Congrats and thanks for the always insightful work been shared here over the years
👏
A PERSONAL ANNOUNCEMENT Finally after all these years, the time has come. Launching in *two days*... Full info here: macrocharts.com
@MacroCharts Love your work. Process over emotion.
@MacroCharts The AD line turned up on Friday amid selling.
When this account speaks, I listen. Usually on point.
Core Systems extremely oversold: • Plunged since triggering Sell mid/late March. • One of the fastest drops in history. • Watching closely for turn UP. • IF confirmed, look for "A" bottom and potential *sharp* retracement bounce lasting 1-2 weeks – watch key supports for…
@MacroCharts Note the 4 week head & shoulder top in RSP: 3/21 - 4/10