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Variant Perception @VrntPerception

In pursuit of repeatable Variant Perception, avoiding black boxes or guru calls. portal.variantperception.com/research Joined May 2009
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Variant Perception @VrntPerception

21 hours ago

Manufacturing green shoots: both ISM and regional Fed surveys show a rebound in new orders. Historically a solid leading signal.

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Variant Perception @VrntPerception

2 days ago

September macro snapshot out: TLDR our leading indicators are headed into risk on territory, despite recent uncertainty around a potential tariff driven growth scare. We look to add risk exposure in select US sectors and high growth EM equities (India, Brazil remain favorites) as…

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Variant Perception @VrntPerception

2 days ago

Adjusting for elevated US sovereign risks pushing up the “risk free” component of the spread, HY credit spreads are just above their post-GFC average. We think there are two effective hedges for credit exposure. First, betting on more Fed rate cuts (e.g., via March 2026 SOFR)…

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Variant Perception @VrntPerception

2 weeks ago

Adjusting for elevated US sovereign risks pushing up the “risk free” component of the spread, HY credit spreads are just above their post-GFC average. We think there are two effective hedges for credit exposure. First, betting on more Fed rate cuts (e.g., via March 2026 SOFR)… https://t.co/uDt2jctEtw

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Variant Perception @VrntPerception

2 weeks ago

US corporate credit spreads look very tight, but if you adjust for sovereign risks, the corporate spread component doesn't look as bad. Could read this as the market being more worried about sovereign risks than being complacent on corporate credit risks.

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Variant Perception @VrntPerception

3 weeks ago

Last week we wrote that while inflation data was showing the first signs of tariffs flowing through to prices, underlying leading indicators did not point to a large or sustained tariff impact. The Fiber Leading Index and prices paid component of the ISM manufacturing survey have…

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Variant Perception @VrntPerception

3 weeks ago

$ETH reaching historically extreme levels on VP Fast Money indicator. VP Fast Money is a price and volume based proxy of speculative trading activity (liquidity takers vs patient money adding depth to the order book). The result is an improved oscillator to help time…

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Variant Perception @VrntPerception

4 weeks ago

Corporate profit down poses a challenge for the long awaited Trump capex boom–– however banks continue to play along by easing lending standards to smaller firms.

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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook

4 weeks ago

Corporate profit down poses a challenge for the long awaited Trump capex boom–– however banks continue to play along by easing lending standards to smaller firms. https://t.co/RjDnCRP6jj

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