Brian McCarthy @briangobosox
Macrolens LLC, China-focused global macro strategy. https://t.co/884Y6E7o0u macrolens.com Orleans, MA Joined May 2013-
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A hypothesis: Recent college graduates can’t find real jobs, so they’re not exiting summer jobs as is seasonally normal.
A hypothesis: Recent college graduates can’t find real jobs, so they’re not exiting summer jobs as is seasonally normal.
payrolls-based proxy for nominal income growth is decelerating in line w/ broader nom aggregates like final sales. As I’ve been warning, nominal deceleration in the face of supply shocks yields sharp declines in real output (ie recession). Fed needs to address this yesterday.
payrolls-based proxy for nominal income growth is decelerating in line w/ broader nom aggregates like final sales. As I’ve been warning, nominal deceleration in the face of supply shocks yields sharp declines in real output (ie recession). Fed needs to address this yesterday.
Team stagflation missed a simple fact: Supply shocks are contractionary. There can be no stagflation unless you marry the supply shocks with accelerating nominal aggregate demand growth. Aggregate demand growth is decelerating. Perhaps gradually, but clearly so.
Team stagflation missed a simple fact: Supply shocks are contractionary. There can be no stagflation unless you marry the supply shocks with accelerating nominal aggregate demand growth. Aggregate demand growth is decelerating. Perhaps gradually, but clearly so.
The Fed, by law, has a dual mandate: “price stability and full employment.” Supply shocks drive both sides of the mandate away from objectives, requiring some degree of compromise from targets to maintain balance in pursuit of the duel, and at present dueling, objectives.
The Fed, by law, has a dual mandate: “price stability and full employment.” Supply shocks drive both sides of the mandate away from objectives, requiring some degree of compromise from targets to maintain balance in pursuit of the duel, and at present dueling, objectives.
Summer’s not technically over, but we’re turning a page here on Cape Cod…
"The decision emerged days after President Trump met South Korean President Lee Jae Myung at the White House." "SK’s Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy said Friday that the US government had briefed officials before the announcement." @sidprabhu bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
We just had a real-world experiment. Trump got reelected because of inflation. There’s clearly no popular constituency for it. So why is everyone fretting that a more democratically accountable federal reserve would be more inflationary?
We just had a real-world experiment. Trump got reelected because of inflation. There’s clearly no popular constituency for it. So why is everyone fretting that a more democratically accountable federal reserve would be more inflationary?
This sounds perfectly reasonable as a defense against legal liability. As justification for continued service on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, not so much.
This sounds perfectly reasonable as a defense against legal liability. As justification for continued service on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, not so much. https://t.co/Kmoa8cWWba
Is there a point at which enough is enough with this madness? Might the executive branch levying taxes on the sale of high-end chips to China wake Congressional Republicans to the reality that this President needs guardrails to protect him from his worst impulses?
Is there a point at which enough is enough with this madness? Might the executive branch levying taxes on the sale of high-end chips to China wake Congressional Republicans to the reality that this President needs guardrails to protect him from his worst impulses?
I had the pleasure of appearing on @CNBC's "The China Connection" today to discuss the Evergrande de-listing, anti-involution policy and China's balance sheet recession. All the large Chinese property developers are going to become 'zombies': Strategist cnb.cx/3UK5roE
Fintwit has a serious blind spot in disaggregating the effects of changes in supply as opposed to demand. The monetary policy response to price increases driven by supply contraction should not be the same as the policy response to price increases driven by demand expansion.
A point Powell subtlely alluded to, missed by all the 70s-obsessed inflation-phobes here, is that in the event of a negative supply shock, missing on the employment mandate is much more dangerous than missing on the inflation mandate. Tightened immigration and tariffs are…
They frame everything as left or right, but in reality, political philosophy is more like a circle. At the extremes, these philosophies overlap again, and then engulf each other.
They frame everything as left or right, but in reality, political philosophy is more like a circle. At the extremes, these philosophies overlap again, and then engulf each other.
The Powell pivot is the right call. We’re experiencing dual supply shocks (immigration and trade), causing a deterioration in the growth / inflation trade-off. For any level of nominal growth, real growth will be lower and inflation higher. Inflation cannot spiral out of…
Stubborn
What’s notable is that the US doesn’t appear to gave any interest in moving towards some form of “deal” (thankfully).
What’s notable is that the US doesn’t appear to gave any interest in moving towards some form of “deal” (thankfully).
Cant overstate how bad this FAI figure is. Note FAI is reported YTD YOY, so for the entire first seven months of the year fixed asset investment grew by only 1.6% NOMINAL, despite credit growth accelerating to 9%. Bad debt is ballooning and rollover is swallowing all the credit.
Cant overstate how bad this FAI figure is. Note FAI is reported YTD YOY, so for the entire first seven months of the year fixed asset investment grew by only 1.6% NOMINAL, despite credit growth accelerating to 9%. Bad debt is ballooning and rollover is swallowing all the credit.
Back of the envelope, RMB 300bn in funding is enough to take down ~8% of 408mn sqm in excess inventory (using an est price of RMB 9,000 per sqm).
Back of the envelope, RMB 300bn in funding is enough to take down ~8% of 408mn sqm in excess inventory (using an est price of RMB 9,000 per sqm). https://t.co/Lg9mamP5nF
The South China Morning Post has jumped the shark. 😔 sc.mp/9w26j?utm_sour… via @SCMPNews
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