Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks
Senior Fellow @BrookingsInst, previously Chief Economist @IIF and Chief FX Strategist @GoldmanSachs. Opinions are my own. Email: [email protected]. Washington, DC Joined July 2017-
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China's FDI data don't show any sign the world is decoupling. China breaks out non-resident FDI inflows into actual FDI (blue) and reinvested earnings (orange). The latter has gone negative, so foreign firms already in China have losses. But actual FDI is still going strong...
Japan used yesterday's dovish Fed to intervene for the 2nd time this week to boost Yen. That's smart but doesn't change the big picture. If US inflation fails to slow, depreciation pressure on Yen will continue. Only allowing 10-year JGB to rise a lot can protect against that...
US financial conditions - and thus growth - depend on 10-year yield (orange), not near-term rate expectations (white). Biggest risk is that the Fed accidentally sparks a sharp tightening in financial conditions. That's why we yesterday got QT tapering and dovish messaging...
Aggiornamento #MMT 1. Il Giappone è uno stato sovrano, con autonomia monetaria 2. Può emettere tutto il debito che vuole 3. Finché l'inflazione in Giappone rimane bassa 4. Lo yen crolla anche se l'inflazione è bassa 5. Non abbiamo mai detto che la valuta non sarebbe crollata
Aggiornamento #MMT 1. Il Giappone è uno stato sovrano, con autonomia monetaria 2. Può emettere tutto il debito che vuole 3. Finché l'inflazione in Giappone rimane bassa 4. Lo yen crolla anche se l'inflazione è bassa 5. Non abbiamo mai detto che la valuta non sarebbe crollata
Today's tapering of Fed QT is odd. After all, financial conditions eased sharply after US Treasury surprised markets on Nov. 1 by issuing more debt at the short end. If uncertainty around inflation is up - which it surely is - why ease financial conditions more with a QT taper?
Today's Fed meeting was a dovish surprise. Implicitly, the Fed is trusting that inflation will slow, much like it did in 2023 after inflation ran hot in Q1. Markets agree. If they thought this was a policy mistake, they'd drive breakeven inflation higher, but no sign of that...
Keeping front-end rates high, while tapering QT, is like pulling the handbrake while pushing the accelerator pedal. Long-end rates affect asset prices and large fixed income borrowers, as well as wealthy households. Poorer households and smaller firms, instead...
China has other ways to get growth -- It hasn't really done a consumer focused stimulus over the last 5ys. Central government, with debt to GDP of 25% (low by int. standards) has fiscal space. 1/2
China has other ways to get growth -- It hasn't really done a consumer focused stimulus over the last 5ys. Central government, with debt to GDP of 25% (low by int. standards) has fiscal space. 1/2
政治の問題なんだろうなぁ。失われた30年を生み出した日本の政治の。
Quick #MMT update 1. Japan is a monetary sovereign 2. It can issue as much debt as it likes 3. As long as inflation in Japan stays low 4. The Yen collapses even as inflation is low 5. We never said the currency wouldn't collapse 6. This isn't an FX crisis, debt is not the problem
2020年以降、円は米ドルに対して50%下落している。これは、「これは危機ではない」という物語を広めるのに忙しい米国#MMTの人々にとっては都合が悪い。それはナンセンスだ。円が下落しているのは日本の債務が高額なためで、日銀は利回りの上限設定を余儀なくされている。円が弱いのは#MMTが債務につい…
2020年以降、円は米ドルに対して50%下落している。これは、「これは危機ではない」という物語を広めるのに忙しい米国#MMTの人々にとっては都合が悪い。それはナンセンスだ。円が下落しているのは日本の債務が高額なためで、日銀は利回りの上限設定を余儀なくされている。円が弱いのは#MMTが債務につい…
MMT is an economic theory that many on the left embraced which suggested governments with their own currency can spend without limitations. Japan's high debt prevents the Bank of Japan (BoJ) from raising interest rates to strengthen the Yen, highlighting a potential flaw in MMT.
MMT is an economic theory that many on the left embraced which suggested governments with their own currency can spend without limitations. Japan's high debt prevents the Bank of Japan (BoJ) from raising interest rates to strengthen the Yen, highlighting a potential flaw in MMT.
Lo yen è tornato quasi al livello in cui si trovava prima dell'intervento di domenica sera. L'unico modo per difendere seriamente lo yen è consentire un aumento dei rendimenti a lungo termine in Giappone. Il Giappone non può farlo perché il suo debito è così alto.
Lo yen è tornato quasi al livello in cui si trovava prima dell'intervento di domenica sera. L'unico modo per difendere seriamente lo yen è consentire un aumento dei rendimenti a lungo termine in Giappone. Il Giappone non può farlo perché il suo debito è così alto.
Un dollaro forte è pericoloso per la Cina. Questo perché la Cina aggancia lo Yuan al dollaro USA, quindi un dollaro forte trascina al rialzo il RMB ponderato per il commercio, come è avvenuto nelle ultime settimane. L'unico modo per risolvere il problema è svalutare il dollaro.
Un dollaro forte è pericoloso per la Cina. Questo perché la Cina aggancia lo Yuan al dollaro USA, quindi un dollaro forte trascina al rialzo il RMB ponderato per il commercio, come è avvenuto nelle ultime settimane. L'unico modo per risolvere il problema è svalutare il dollaro.
Team Trump apparently wants to devalue the dollar. How practical, feasible and smart is that? My thoughts: Trump's confused approach to the dollar/FX is back.👇 omfif.org/2024/05/trumps…
China's current account surplus (blue) is as big as ever. That - historically - meant big rises in official FX reserves (black), but not in '23 because outbound FDI by Chinese residents was so big. Rather than accumulating US Treasuries, China is now buying hard foreign assets...
We hosted a @BrookingsGlobal call on China with @EswarSPrasad yesterday. Key issue was if China will devalue, given that its trade surplus - without oil and iron ore imports - is already so big. Consensus was that devaluation is coming, because China needs growth. @BrookingsInst
Le yen repart à la baisse autour de 158 contre dollar,aprés un bref répit attribué à des interventions sur le marché.Toujours pas de hausse de taux directeur pour arrêter la glissade.Le G7 ne fait rien,malgré l’avantage compétitif indû procuré au Japon par sa politique monétaire.
Le yen repart à la baisse autour de 158 contre dollar,aprés un bref répit attribué à des interventions sur le marché.Toujours pas de hausse de taux directeur pour arrêter la glissade.Le G7 ne fait rien,malgré l’avantage compétitif indû procuré au Japon par sa politique monétaire.
A strong Dollar is dangerous for China. That's because China pegs the Yuan to US$, so a strong Dollar drags up trade-weighted RMB as in recent weeks. Only way to fix that is to devalue against USD. China doesn't like doing that because that caused huge capital flight in 2015/6...
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222 Followers 2K FollowingAggiornamento #MMT 1. Il Giappone è uno stato sovrano, con autonomia monetaria 2. Può emettere tutto il debito che vuole 3. Finché l'inflazione in Giappone rimane bassa 4. Lo yen crolla anche se l'inflazione è bassa 5. Non abbiamo mai detto che la valuta non sarebbe crollata
Quick #MMT update 1. Japan is a monetary sovereign 2. It can issue as much debt as it likes 3. As long as inflation in Japan stays low 4. The Yen collapses even as inflation is low 5. We never said the currency wouldn't collapse 6. This isn't an FX crisis, debt is not the problem
@robin_j_brooks Good news for investitors. You are always a lucid vision of economic issue. Congratulations.
@robin_j_brooks Don't disagree, but bonds and stocks fading the initial FOMC move pretty hard now. Lots of cross-currents as usual but that's also meaningful.
@robin_j_brooks Think you may be speaking too soon. Let's check back in a couple weeks.
Keeping front-end rates high, while tapering QT, is like pulling the handbrake while pushing the accelerator pedal. Long-end rates affect asset prices and large fixed income borrowers, as well as wealthy households. Poorer households and smaller firms, instead...
China has other ways to get growth -- It hasn't really done a consumer focused stimulus over the last 5ys. Central government, with debt to GDP of 25% (low by int. standards) has fiscal space. 1/2
We hosted a @BrookingsGlobal call on China with @EswarSPrasad yesterday. Key issue was if China will devalue, given that its trade surplus - without oil and iron ore imports - is already so big. Consensus was that devaluation is coming, because China needs growth. @BrookingsInst
政治の問題なんだろうなぁ。失われた30年を生み出した日本の政治の。
Quick #MMT update 1. Japan is a monetary sovereign 2. It can issue as much debt as it likes 3. As long as inflation in Japan stays low 4. The Yen collapses even as inflation is low 5. We never said the currency wouldn't collapse 6. This isn't an FX crisis, debt is not the problem
2020年以降、円は米ドルに対して50%下落している。これは、「これは危機ではない」という物語を広めるのに忙しい米国#MMTの人々にとっては都合が悪い。それはナンセンスだ。円が下落しているのは日本の債務が高額なためで、日銀は利回りの上限設定を余儀なくされている。円が弱いのは#MMTが債務につい…
MMT is an economic theory that many on the left embraced which suggested governments with their own currency can spend without limitations. Japan's high debt prevents the Bank of Japan (BoJ) from raising interest rates to strengthen the Yen, highlighting a potential flaw in MMT.
Lo yen è tornato quasi al livello in cui si trovava prima dell'intervento di domenica sera. L'unico modo per difendere seriamente lo yen è consentire un aumento dei rendimenti a lungo termine in Giappone. Il Giappone non può farlo perché il suo debito è così alto.
The Yen has fallen back to almost where it was before Sunday night's intervention. The only way to mount a serious defense of the Yen is to allow long-term yields in Japan to rise. Japan can't do that because its debt is so high. Japan's supposedly harmless debt is now a trap...
Mostly offline until mid May. #Fuschlsee/Salzburg
Un dollaro forte è pericoloso per la Cina. Questo perché la Cina aggancia lo Yuan al dollaro USA, quindi un dollaro forte trascina al rialzo il RMB ponderato per il commercio, come è avvenuto nelle ultime settimane. L'unico modo per risolvere il problema è svalutare il dollaro.
A strong Dollar is dangerous for China. That's because China pegs the Yuan to US$, so a strong Dollar drags up trade-weighted RMB as in recent weeks. Only way to fix that is to devalue against USD. China doesn't like doing that because that caused huge capital flight in 2015/6...
Team Trump apparently wants to devalue the dollar. How practical, feasible and smart is that? My thoughts: Trump's confused approach to the dollar/FX is back.👇 omfif.org/2024/05/trumps…
@scenarieconomic @robin_j_brooks Japan imports 40+% of its food on a value basis & 60+% on a calorie basis. W/ the aging population more are reliant on savings. The yen hasn't just depreciated vs the usd but also vs the euro, yuan, won & baht... Foreign economists liked inflation last year; the Japanese didn't
@robin_j_brooks im not expecting any bombshells from the Fed.. they will keep the "data dependent" messaging- acknowledging mixed indicators recently.. nothing the market doesn't already know
@scenarieconomic @robin_j_brooks If economic and political stability is a German quirk, then so be it.
Le yen repart à la baisse autour de 158 contre dollar,aprés un bref répit attribué à des interventions sur le marché.Toujours pas de hausse de taux directeur pour arrêter la glissade.Le G7 ne fait rien,malgré l’avantage compétitif indû procuré au Japon par sa politique monétaire.
The Yen has fallen back to almost where it was before Sunday night's intervention. The only way to mount a serious defense of the Yen is to allow long-term yields in Japan to rise. Japan can't do that because its debt is so high. Japan's supposedly harmless debt is now a trap...
@robin_j_brooks @DavidjoyAd1 Surprisingly, Japanese quasi MMT economists still criticize rate hike and recommend tax cuts by issuing more debt as Japanese government debt is held by domestic entities. Unfortunately, their opinion is still popular.
nice Su$$tack milestone, now need to figure out how to get the followers to move further down the funnel to free subscriber and eventually paying subscriber
PESO ARGENTINO DESDE 2022
This is the performance of EM FX since the post-COVID inflation shock began in early 2022 and the Fed started hiking. There has been only one EM safe harbor in this storm, which is Latin America. This outperformance is a total break from the past and a sign of things to come...