Felix Geiger @Flx_Geiger
@bundesbank | views are my own | private | monetary policy, financial markets, finance, economics | retweets, likes and following do not imply endorsement Frankfurt am Main, Deutschland Joined July 2021-
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Felix Geiger retweeted
New paper: “Beyond the Taylor Rule” joint with Emi Nakamura and Venance Riblier. Emi presented this paper at the Jackson Hole Symposium. We investigate how descriptive and how prescriptive the Taylor rule is. 1/ eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/pa…
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Felix Geiger retweeted
incredible things happening in the townsquare today
Felix Geiger retweeted
“The simple test is whether an economist's views tend to diverge from those of his ideological allies when the ideology clashes with the economics. If they do he is a real economist. If they do not, he is only an economist in working hours.” daviddfriedman.substack.com/p/economic-met…
Felix Geiger retweeted
Higher‐order moment conditions can identify non‐Gaussian SVARs—but do they increase efficiency in a recursive SVAR? 👉We show that bivariate coskewness and cokurtosis conditions lead to efficiency gains, while non-bivariate conditions are redundant.
Felix Geiger retweeted
Ein paar Bemerkungen zum so genannten EU-US Zolldeal: (1/10) Ein trauriger Tag für den Freihandel: 15% Zoll auf EU-Waren in den USA ist besser als 20 oder 30%, keine Frage. Aber der „Deal“ ist teuer erkauft. Vielleicht zu teuer.
Felix Geiger retweeted
"The Elastic Markets Hypothesis" new paper w Felix Gerding. Using country index additions/subtractions, we find multipliers (of flows on stock market prices) are not as high or permanent as recent lit. Stock market demand may be inelastic in short-run but is elastic in long-run🧵
Felix Geiger retweeted
The natural interest rate (r*) is the real rate that would prevail in the long run. The standard view in macro is that r* depends exclusively on structural factors such as productivity growth or demographics. A short 🧵 a new paper 1/n (n=6) papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Felix Geiger retweeted
New paper on recent US tariffs with Matt Rognlie and @a_auclert Our focus: effects of temporary increases in tariffs (“tariff shocks") Three Qs: 1 Will tariffs lead to a recession? 2 Will they reduce the trade deficit? 3 Why are they not appreciating USD? (as in std theory) 🧵
Felix Geiger retweeted
New paper with @mw_econ on Fiscal Stagnation. Key insights: 1) High public debt may push the economy into fiscal stagnation, i.e. a persistent state of low growth and high fiscal distortions. 2) Pro-growth policies are crucial to exit stagnation, but they require credibility.
Felix Geiger retweeted
New paper: with LLMs and firm-level text, we track in real time how American and global companies are reacting to tariffs, export controls, and financial sanctions. 🇺🇸🌏 In Q1 2025, even before "Liberation Day", we see a sharp surge in reported economic pressure. 🧵(1/x)
Felix Geiger retweeted
Do the media focus on the negative? If so, why? We study this in the context of stock market reporting and identify and quantify an overlooked bias.
Felix Geiger retweeted
Trump pivoted, but we’re not going back to where we were before. We have learned a few things: 1) Trump will respond to a certain level of pain in markets. 2) The Treasury market is perhaps the most important player in markets right now. 3) There can be exemptions. (1/3)
Felix Geiger retweeted
BREAKING: Commerce Secretary Lutnick on the "tariff exemptions" announced this weekend: "They are exempt from reciprocal tariffs, but they are INCLUDED in the semiconductor tariffs which are coming in a month or two." So basically, they are not tariff exempt just recategorized?
Felix Geiger retweeted
Don't blame the plumbing of Treasury markets, blame Congress and the White House. Not the unwinding of the basis trade in US Treasury markets, but the response to a large, macro shock. March 2020 was the first sign of cracks in the global safe asset supplier armor. April 7 and…
Felix Geiger retweeted
This is the plumbing view of Treasury markets: " These are supposed to be safe assets." So, any time Treasurys are sold off, there has to be a plumbing problem. Markets are not functioning. In this case, the plumbing problem is in the Treasury basis trade. Central banks like the…
This is the plumbing view of Treasury markets: " These are supposed to be safe assets." So, any time Treasurys are sold off, there has to be a plumbing problem. Markets are not functioning. In this case, the plumbing problem is in the Treasury basis trade. Central banks like the…
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