Ralph Sueppel @macro_synergy
Managing Director of Macrosynergy Ltd. Development of systematic macro trading strategies. research.macrosynergy.com London, England Joined June 2016-
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"We document positive and significant returns on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds on the day before the FOMC announcements and attribute this pre-FOMC drift to the premium for heightened uncertainty." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Quantamental documentation: Historically, there has been a negative relation between employment growth and subsequent equity and fixed income returns, particularly in the U.S. The relation is more significant if one uses workforce growth as a benchmark. academy.macrosynergy.com/academy/Themes…
Python code: "The Chicago Fed National Activity Index has an amazing track record at predicting recessions... By plotting three series, we can get a great handle on the current state of the economy." ai.gopubby.com/how-to-plot-th…
"ETF products significantly affect the value of the constituent assets, and in particular the value of assets that are in shortest supply... The price of the asset offered in short-supply trades at a premium compared to an environment without ETFs." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
"Companies reporting extreme quarterly earnings misses exhibit pronounced significant overnight drift post-announcement... Extreme earnings misses stimulate more intensive information acquisition." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
"Asset Pricing with Cognitive Biases and Deep Learning": "Biased expectations can explain two central puzzles in the asset pricing literature: the equity premium puzzle and the excess volatility puzzle." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
"How to Track the Portfolio Allocation of Institutional Investors": "Extracting and Examining SEC Form 13F Filings using Python with the FMP API or Selenium Scraping for Tracking the Big Players." medium.com/@crisvelasquez…
"Social Network Attention Herding, Sentiment, and Markets": "We construct a monthly attention herding portfolio based on the top three most discussed stocks that receive an aggregate positive sentiment [which] generates sizable alphas." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
"Mean Reversion Strategies": "An introductory overview of mean-reversion strategies [with Python code] delving into key concepts that underpin such approaches." johoblogs.medium.com/mean-reversion…
Macroeconomic data and systematic trading strategies: An introduction research.macrosynergy.com/macroeconomic-…
"Empirical analysis that uses outputs from pre-trained language models can be subject to a new form of temporal lookahead bias [that] arises when a language model’s pretraining data contains information about the future." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Video tutorial: Macro-quantamental indicators An introduction to the current industry standard (JPMaQS). Free trials for institutional investors via J.P. Morgan. Special targeted access for academic research. players.brightcove.net/887906362001/z… [players.brightcove.net]
A useful reminder: "The Kelly criterion is a technique [that] seeks to maximize expected growth of assets by optimally investing a fixed fraction of wealth in a series of investments." johoblogs.medium.com/the-kelly-crit…
"Using publicly available information on option volume totals, we develop new measures of directional option-to-stock (O/S) trading volume imbalance [which] consistently predict future abnormal performance." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
"Principal Component Analysis (PCA)... holds particular importance in finance... where data is voluminous... extracting meaningful patterns, optimizing portfolios, managing risk, and identifying underlying factors." medium.com/@gdimitrov/int…
"Shocks in China have material impacts on global equity markets [but] much smaller than... shocks in the U.S... By contrast, shocks from China account for a significant proportion of variation in global commodity prices... on a par with those of the U.S." econstor.eu/bitstream/1041…
"Dynamic hedging is the practice of periodically transacting financial instruments to offset the risk caused by an investment or a liability... We propose a novel general market impact dynamic hedging model based on Deep Reinforcement Learning." arxiv.org/pdf/2402.13326…
Paper "investigates the enhancement of financial time series forecasting with the use of neural networks through supervised autoencoders, aiming to improve investment strategy performance." arxiv.org/pdf/2404.01866…
"For independently and identically distributed returns or simple autocorrelation dynamics... longer horizon beta estimates [lookbacks of 1- 5 years] provide much better estimates of longer-horizon [future] betas than short-horizon [e.g. monthly] betas." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
"Equity Premium in Efficient Markets": "Risk aversion [is] dependent on the information available... In efficient markets, informed investors maximize return on volatility by being risk-neutral with riskless bonds, and risk-averse with equities." arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/pape…
Stat Arb @quant_arb
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2K Followers 5K Following macro charts (& Jobs!) in Markets & Economics. Recruit with us or send your CV to ChrisA@arb, Rick @arbitrage-search.comEwan Kirk @ewankirk
1K Followers 647 Following Technology entrepreneur, early-stage investor, founder of Cantab Capital Partners, Chairman of the Management Committee at the @NewtonInstituteThe FRED Blog creates a color-coded FRED map to compare bank deposits as a fraction of GDP for nations worldwide ow.ly/z9iv50Rr94k
Network Momentum across Asset Classes arxiv.org/abs/2308.11294 #QuantLinkADay
I'm more than happy that my research piece on TV news & mutual fund flows in now live! Big thank you to my PHD supervisor @BurcinYurtoglu from @WHU_edu and @mediatenor for a great set of data. Free access until August 24, 2023): lnkd.in/eAxSegfu
@macro_srsv There's a nice repo with examples around how to calc cointegration between pairs and run a strategy on top of it. Indeed, just to illustrate how to implement that in Python :) github.com/gopalrai11/Pai…
Construction of weighted median inflation rates for 38 advanced and emerging economies has desirable properties for measurement of core inflation, from Laurence M. Ball, @Cvianac Christopher Evans, and Luca Antonio Ricci nber.org/papers/w31032
Measuring price impact and information content of trades in a time-varying setting arxiv.org/abs/2212.12687 #QuantLinkADay
“#Russia—and not the taxpaying publics of the United States and its allies—should bear the financial burden of its war against Ukraine.” Read more from the @AtlanticCouncil's Franklin Kramer in @thehill about seizing Russian state assets. thehill.com/opinion/intern…
SVAR Identification with High-Frequency Macroeconomic Data papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… #QuantLinkADay
Inflation-Adjusted Bonds, Swaps, and Derivatives papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… #QuantLinkADay
FX Liquidity Risk and Carry Trade Premia papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… #QuantLinkADay
@macro_srsv This is a more traditional argument using Indian asset class data. From “Historical Nominal and Real Asset Returns in India” at papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Machine Forecast Disagreement and Equity Returns papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… #QuantLinkADay
Option Volume Imbalance as a predictor for equity market returns arxiv.org/abs/2201.09319 #QuantLinkADay
Optimal trend following portfolios arxiv.org/abs/2201.06635 #QuantLinkADay
Fiscal regimes and the exchange rate papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… #QuantLinkADay
Main Street's Pain, Wall Street's Gain papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… #QuantLinkADay
@VolQuant @TheTerminal @Refinitiv You should try my findatapy library, has wrappers for BBG and Eikon 😀 Has lots of extra features like multi threading, ticker mappings (whole vol surface is 1 line), use of JSON to make requests if you want etc. github.com/cuemacro/finda… - github.com/cuemacro/finma…
Optimal Portfolio Choice and Stock Centrality for Tail Risk Events arxiv.org/abs/2112.12031 #QuantLinkADay
@macro_srsv Two Sigma recently published a little piece in which they explore the use of a Gaussian Muxture Model to identify market regimes based on a set of 17 underlying factors. twosigma.com/articles/a-mac…